Arnside Risk Management Review 1. Introduction Our approach to responding to risk is well developed and as well as assessing the overall risk of a local area, our resource and response requirements will continue to be determined by considering the following: Geographical cover – the area of service provision. This is driven by the geographical dispersion of potential incidents and the distance to travel by our response vehicles; Workload – the likely number of independent responses required, taking into account historical incident data; Type of response – the characteristics of the risk which determine the resource requirement within that area; Weight of attack – the amount of equipment and staff required to deal with an incident based on an analysis of the potential impact of each emergency situation. Inevitably some of the above factors are intrinsically linked. There is dependency between ‘type of response’ and ‘weight of attack’. Furthermore, other factors such as response time, firefighter safety and local topology serve as constraints for defining the limits of these variables. We will continue to focus our efforts on risk reduction initiatives, however, fully understand that a modern fire and rescue service should be governed by the following principles: Maintain public protection from fire and, if possible, enhance that protection by means of proactive prevention and protection activity; Actively promote firefighter safety; Provide a primary focus of fire cover which continues to be directly addressed to life risk; Continue to be cost effective and consistent with the principles of best value for public money. - 1 - 08 October 2015 (v1.0) 2. Our Performance – Arnside In order to further develop an efficient, effective and economic risk plan for Arnside it is important to evaluate our performance. The following charts demonstrate our performance in recent years: 2.1 All Incidents The following tables demonstrate the incident activity in Arnside’s nominal Station area. C63: Arnside - All Incidents (2009-10 to 2014-15) 30 25 20 15 10 5 No. No. of Incidents 0 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 Arnside 28 18 22 19 22 26 - 2 - 08 October 2015 (v1.0) 2.2 All Fires C63: Arnside - All Fires (2009-10 to 2014-15) 30 25 20 15 No. No. of Fires 10 5 0 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 Arnside 2 5 5 12 6 6 - 3 - 08 October 2015 (v1.0) 2.3 Dwelling Fires C63: Arnside - All Dwelling Fires (2009-10 to 2014-15) 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 No. No. of DwellingFires 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 Arnside 0 1 1 3 0 0 - 4 - 08 October 2015 (v1.0) 2.4 Injuries in Dwelling Fires C63: Arnside - All Dwelling Fire related Casualties (2009-10 to 2014-15) 30 25 20 15 10 5 No. No. of Casualties 0 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 Arnside 0 0 0 0 0 0 - 5 - 08 October 2015 (v1.0) 2.5 Deliberate fires C63: Arnside - All Deliberate Fires (2009-10 to 2014-15) 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 No. No. of Deliberate Fires Arnside 0 1 3 7 0 0 - 6 - 08 October 2015 (v1.0) 2.6 False Alarms - 7 - 08 October 2015 (v1.0) 2.7 Special Service Calls - 8 - 08 October 2015 (v1.0) 3. Analysis of Risk The Fire Risk Model In order to be in a position where we can analyse risk in a way that allows us to determine whether our prevention and protection strategies are having the desired effect, Cumbria Fire & Rescue Service (CFRS) introduced a new fire risk model as part of the 2011-14 Integrated Risk Management Planning (IRMP). This revised approach was subjected to a detailed public and key stakeholder consultation at that time and the outcomes from that process were used to determine our final risk model. The fire risk model involves an analysis of fires and associated casualties, along with a consideration of the deprivation within each Super Output Area (SOA) by use of the Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) score. The IMD 2007 is a measure of multiple deprivations and is made up of seven domain indices. These are: Income; Employment; Health Deprivation and Disability; Education, Skills and Training; Barriers to Housing and Services; Crime; Living Environment. - 9 - 08 October 2015 (v1.0) 3.1 Cumbria Risk Profile Using the above methodology the Service is in a position to assess each SOA and classify the risk as high, medium or low. CFRS have adopted this approach since the start of the 2011 IRMP and can determine that overall risk has reduced by approximately -19% when comparing the latest 5 years of statistics with those used in 2010/11. Furthermore, risk within our most vulnerable high risk (in terms of fire) communities has reduced by some -79% over the same period. The county now only has one small area that is classified by CFRS as ‘high risk’ and a summary of the risk profile is provided below: Incidents 2005/6 - Incidents 2006/7 - Incidents 2007/8 - Incidents 2008/9 - Incidents 2009/10 – Incidents 2010/11 – Cumbria Risk Profile 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 2010/11 Risk* 2011/12 Risk 2012/13 Risk 2013/14 Risk 2014/15 Risk 2015/16 Risk Risk Risk No. of Risk No. of Risk No. of Risk No. Of Risk No. Of Risk No. Of Score Grade Score SOAs Score SOAs Score SOAs Score SOAs Score SOAs Score SOAs 76 and above High 1294 15 1136 14 956 12 318 4 230 3 78 1 35 to 75 Medium 6980 139 6328 129 5526 116 5426 117 5006 108 4568 99 34 and below Low 3920 167 4198 178 4520 193 4622 200 4818 210 5200 221 12194 321 11662 321 11002 321 10322 321 10054 321 9846 321 Total Risk Score 11622 11002 10366 10054 9846 Risk Score 12194 Increase/Reduction over -4.4% -9.8% -15.0% -17.5% -19.3% the period *Note: The risk score documented in 2010/11 shows a slight change (in terms of risk score, not number of SOAs in each band) to that documented in the 2011-14 IRMP. The reason is that the data to support the above has been taken from CLG and that used in the IRMP was local data; due to the timings of the 2011-14 IRMP publication a small number of incidents had not been quality assured and finalised on the national IRS database. - 10 - 08 October 2015 (v1.0) 3.2 Arnside Risk Profile The Fire Risk model shows that the risk across Arnside is low. The table demonstrates a decrease in risk and the overall risk is extremely low. Incidents 2005/6 Incidents 2006/7 - Incidents 2007/8 Incidents 2008/9 - Incidents 2009/10 Incidents 2010/11 Arnside Risk Profile - 09/10 10/11 - 11/12 12/13 – 13/14 – 14/15 2010/11 Risk 2011/12 Risk 2012/13 Risk 2013/14 Risk 2014/15 Risk 2015/16 Risk Risk No. of Risk No. of Risk No. of Risk No. Of Risk No. Of Risk No. Of Score Risk Grade Score SOAs Score SOAs Score SOAs Score SOAs Score SOAs Score SOAs 76 and above High 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 35 to 75 Medium 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 34 and below Low 58 3 66 3 48 3 50 3 48 3 52 3 58 3 66 3 48 3 50 3 48 3 52 3 Total Risk Score 66 48 50 48 52 Risk Score 58 Increase/Reduction over the 13.8% -17.2% -13.8% -17.2% -10.3% period - 11 - 08 October 2015 (v1.0) 3.3 Next nearest Supporting Appliances The following table indicates the travel distance in miles from Arnside Fire Station to the next nearest three fire stations, along with the anticipated travel time (note: On-call firefighters take approximately 5 minutes to get to the fire station before they can respond to the incident). The distances and times are based on road mapping software. Arnside Distance Time Neighbour Supporting Station Name (miles) (minutes) 1st Nearest 3 Milnthorpe 8 2nd Nearest 4 Silverdale (LANCS) 10 3rd Nearest 7.5 Carnforth (LANCS) 18 - 12 - 08 October 2015 (v1.0) 4. Our Resources across Arnside Fire Station and Appliances In Arnside, CFRS operate from a fire station at Silverdale Road. The station has one fire appliance that is currently crewed by 11 on-call firefighters. On-Call Firefighters On-Call firefighters are a vital part of CFRS. Nationwide, approximately 18,000 On-Call firefighters provide efficient, cost effective and reliable fire and rescue cover to around 60% of the UK and across Cumbria they provide cover at 36 of our 38 fire stations. On-Call crews will be called upon to attend the full range of incidents including fires, floods, road traffic collisions, chemical spills and more, and work alongside their full-time colleagues at many incidents. Apart from a few hours a week for training sessions and to carry out other pre-arranged duties, On-Call firefighters only attend the fire station when they have received an emergency callout. Each On-Call firefighter carries a pocket alerter, which is activated when they are needed and they subsequently report to the fire station and mobilise the necessary appliance(s). On occasions, this type of duty system means that appliances are sometimes ‘off the run’ due to insufficient fire-fighters being available to form a crew.