VYTAUTAS MAGNUS UNIVERSITY FACULTY OF POLITICAL SCIENCE AND DIPLOMACY DEPARTMENT OF POLITICAL SCIENCE Egidius Johan Adriaan van der Stadt INTERNAL AND EXTERNAL IMPLICATIONS OF IRAN’S NUCLEAR PROGRAM AND THE JCPOA AGREEMENT Final Master Thesis Master Diplomacy and International Relations Study Program, State Code 6211JX049 Political Science Study Field Supervisor: PhD. Ieva Karpavičiūtė Defended: Prof. dr. Šarūnas Liekis Kaunas, Lithuania 2021 Van der Stadt, E. Internal and External Implications of Iran’s Nuclear Program and the JCPOA Agreement. Master Thesis in Political Science / Supervisor Ph.D. I. Karpavičiūtė; Vytautas Magnus University, Faculty of Political Science and Diplomacy, Department of Political Science, Kaunas, Lithuania, 2021. 91 pages. ABSTRACT It is unclear what the regional security impact of Iranian proliferation could be and how this connects with the aftermath of the JCPOA agreement. The existing research lacks an in- depth analysis of the internal and external implications of the development of Iranian nuclear weapons. Due to the absence of such comprehensive combined studies, it is challenging to assess its implications. With possible Iranian proliferation comes a vast array of consequences to the Middle East, challenging the existing status quo and military power balance. This thesis aims to elaborate and analyze the internal and external implications of Iran’s policy to continue its nuclear weapons program. The methods used in this thesis are based on qualitative research, using documents, official statements, declassified government documents, the IAEA reports, the analysis of the JCPOA agreement text, and reputable news sources as secondary sources. The following methodology is used: case studies. The thesis will elaborate and research contemporary, and past phenomena related to Iran's nuclear program and explain its implications. The thesis confirms the presumption that Iran’s ambiguity regarding its nuclear program has been extensively used as a façade to obscure its real intentions, namely, to obtain nuclear weapons as a means of guaranteeing its survival. Its diplomatic cooperation was primarily focused on allowing the country to enjoy extensive sanctions relief as compensation for its perceived cooperation. In addition to that, the Iranian nuclear program undermines security and stability in the Middle East. Keywords: Iran, nuclear proliferation, foreign policy analysis, JCPOA agreement, neo-realism, nuclear security. 1 Van der Stadt, E. Vidiniai ir tarptautiniai Irano Branduolinės Programos bei Bendrojo Visapusiško Veiksmų Plano padariniai. Politikos Mokslų Magistro darbas/ Darbo vadovė Dr. I. Karpavičiūtė; Vytauto Didžiojo Universitetas, Politikos mokslų ir diplomatijos fakultetas, Politologijos katedra, Kaunas, Lietuva, 2021. 91 p. SANTRAUKA LIETUVIŲ KALBA Nėra iki galo aišku, kokią reikšmę Irano branduolinio ginklo platinimas turėtų regioniam saugumui, bei kaip tai yra susiję su BVVP susitarimu. Literatūroje trūksta vidinių bei tarptautinių Irano branduolinės programos padarinių analizės. Taigi, sudėtinga įvertinti šią programą. Galimas Irano branduolinio ginklo platinimas turi įvairiapusį poveikį visam Artimųjų Rytų regionui. Tai kvestionuoja esamą status quo bei karinės jėgos balansą. Šiuo darbu siekiama detaliai išanalizuoti vidinius ir tarptautinius padarinius Iranui siekiant tęsti branduolinio ginklo programą. Magistro darbe yra remiamasi kokybine metodologija. Aptariami dokumentai, teisiniai sprendimai, išslaptinti vyriausybės nutarimai, TATENA ataskaitos, BVVP susitarimas. Kaip antriniai šaltiniai, aptariamos ir patikimų medijų teikiamos naujienos. Šiame magistro darbu analizuojama neaiški Irano pozicija dėl branduolinės programos. Tai yra tarsi fasadas siekiant nuslėpti tikruosius šalies tikslus, susijusius su ginklų, kurie yra svarbūs išlikimui, įsigijimu. Diplomatinis Irano bendradarbiavimas pirmiausia buvo reikalingas tam, kad šalis galėtų išvengti sankcijų. Visgi, ši branduolinė programa pažeidžia saugumą ir stabilumą Artimųjų Rytų regione. Raktiniai žodžiai: Iranas, branduolinio ginklo platinimas, užsienio politikos analizė, JCPOA susitarimas, neorealizmas, branduolinis saugumas. 2 Table of Contents ABSTRACT 1 SANTRAUKA LIETUVIŲ KALBA 2 LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS 4 INTRODUCTION 5 1. NEO-REALISM AND NUCLEAR WEAPONS PROGRAMS, REGIONAL AND GLOBAL IMPLICATIONS 11 1.1 Neo-Realism Theory and Nuclear Proliferation 11 1.2 Pros and Cons of Nuclear Proliferation in International Relations 15 1.3 Iranian Nuclear Proliferation and Neo-Realism 20 2. ORIGINS OF IRAN'S NUCLEAR PROGRAM 23 2.1 Pre Revolution History of Iran 23 2.2 The Rise of Ruhollah Khomeini 28 2.3 Iranian Revolution and Pre-Conditions for Moving Towards a Nuclear Program 30 2.4 Current Status of Iran’s Nuclear Program 33 3. THE JCPOA: ORIGINS, NEGOTIATIONS, AGREEMENTS, AND POSITIONS OF STATES 36 3.1 Iran and the Non-Proliferation Treaty 36 3.2 Political Origins and Different Interests Behind the JCPOA Agreement 39 3.3 The Provisions and Principles Stipulated by the JCPOA 42 3.4 The Negotiation Process and States’ Positions on the JCPOA Agreement 46 3.4.1 The JCPOA Under the Trump Administration 46 3.4.2 EU Position Towards the JCPOA 48 3.4.3 Responses to the JCPOA in the Middle East 52 4 IMPLICATIONS OF IRAN’S NUCLEAR WEAPONS PROGRAM 57 4.1 Iran’s Position and Intentions 57 4.2 Iranian Reaction to US Withdrawal of JCPOA 59 4.3 Financial Impact of US Withdrawal and Sanctions 61 4.4 Political Consequences of Iran’s Nuclear Program 63 4.4.1 Internal Implications 64 4.4.2 External Implications 66 CONCLUSION 69 BIBLIOGRAPHY 73 3 LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS APOC Anglo-Persian Oil Company CSFP Common Foreign and Security Policy DPRK Democratic Peoples’ Republic of Korea (North Korea) EEAS European External Action Service EU European Union GCC Gulf Cooperation Council HEU High-Enriched Uranium HR High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy IAEA International Atomic Energy Agency ICBM Intercontinental Ballistic Missile INSTEX Instrument in Support of Trade Exchanges IR Islamic Republic of Iran (Iran) IRGC Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps JCPOA Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action KSA Kingdom of Saudi Arabia LEU Low-enriched Uranium MAD Mutual Assured Destruction NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organization NPT Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty PRC People’s Republic of China (China) UK United Kingdom UN United Nations US United States of America WMD Weapons of Mass Destruction 4 INTRODUCTION Since the Iranian Revolution in 1978, the Islamic Republic of Iran (further referred to as Iran) has positioned itself as an adversary to Western policy, values, and cooperation. Before the Iran nuclear deal framework and the later adopted Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), Iran had shown its intent to enrich uranium for both civil and military purposes. The West observed the latter intention as threatening since Iran has been an enabler and facilitator of state- organized and incentivized terrorism and guerrilla warfare in the Middle East. Sanctions against Iran were deemed unsuccessful. Therefore, the United States and the European Union were seeking a diplomatic way to prevent Iran from pursuing nuclear proliferation, thus rewarding Iran with sanctions relief and normalization. Iran covertly continued to look for ways to enrich uranium and violate the previously made agreement. This caused the presumed breach of trust between the Iranian government and the United States’ leadership. The Iranian leadership’s decision to actively and assertively defend its interests in the Middle East has created a situation where Iran finds itself in indirect conflict with the United States and its close allies. Such clashes include the Houthi-led insurgency in Yemen, Hezbollah’s influence in Lebanon, its participation in Syria, and the numerous Shia militias active in Iraq. Iran is asserting itself as a dominant regional power, not afraid of confrontation. They seek to outplay Saudi Arabia in the regional geopolitical arena by involving its foreign armed forces and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), specifically the Quds Forces. The Quds Forces are responsible for extraterritorial military operations in regions designated by Iran as crucial. As a result of the Gulf Cooperation Council’s (GCC) ongoing decision in 2017 to impose Qatar’s economic blockade. Qatar sought external support for its security and food availability limitations. Iran offered food and diplomatic support to Qatar. As a result, Qatar ceased its participation in areas of interest to Iran, namely, its peacekeeping mission in Ras Doumeira, an island located in the Strait of Mandeb, a key maritime route for international trade. Qatar retreated its troops from the ongoing war in Yemen. Both decisions indicate possible Iranian involvement. 5 Relevance The JCPOA has been a broadly discussed and debated agreement with opposition and supporters standing at opposing sides. This agreement has far-reaching impact and implications for states, businesses, and people, making it a relevant topic needed to be researched thoroughly. The complexity of conflicting geopolitical interests and participant states with changing motives and attitudes make this topic challenging but highly actual and relevant. The thesis focuses on the internal and external implications of the JCPOA on Iran. In addition to the implications, the thesis will closely analyze the reaction, interest, and opposition towards the Iranian nuclear program by countries in the region as well as the United States