SÕJATEADLANE Estonian Journal of Military Studies 13 / 2019 CULTURAL, PEACE AND CONFLICT STUDIES SERIES Volume I Religion and Politics in Multicultural Europe: Perspectives and Challenges Edited by Alar Kilp and Andres Saumets Volume II Extremism Within and Around Us Edited by Alar Kilp and Andres Saumets Volume III The Law of Armed Conflict: Historical and Contemporary Perspectives Edited by Rain Liivoja and Andres Saumets Volume IV Sõna sõjast ja sõda sõnast. Tekste ja tõlgendusi War of Words, Words of War. Texts and Interpretations Edited by Andres Saumets and Vladimir Sazonov Volume V Operatsioon “Iraagi vabadus”: kümme aastat hiljem Operation “Iraqi Freedom”: Ten Years Later Edited by Andres Saumets, Holger Mölder and René Värk Volume VI The Crisis in Ukraine and Information Operations of the Russian Federation Edited by Vladimir Sazonov, Andres Saumets and Holger Mölder Volume VII Kümme aastat Vene-Georgia 2008. aasta sõjast: peegeldusi hübriidsõjast ja Venemaa poliiti- listest ambitsioonidest Ten Years after the Russo-Georgian War of 2008: Reflections on Hybrid Warfare and Russia’s Political Ambitions Edited by Karl Salum and Andres Saumets Volume VIII Zapad 2017 infosõja vaatepunktist Zapad 2017 from the Perspective of Information Warfare Edited by Andreas Ventsel, Vladimir Sazonov and Andres Saumets Volume IX Russia, Syria and the West: From the Aftermath of the Arab Spring in the Middle East to Radicalization and Immigration Issues in Europe Edited by Vladimir Sazonov, Illimar Ploom and Andres Saumets ESTONIAN MILITARY ACADEMY SÕJATEADLANE Estonian Journal of Military Studies CULTURAL, PEACE AND CONFLICT STUDIES SERIES SERIES EDITORS: ANDRES SAUMETS AND KARL SALUM VOLUME IX: RUSSIA, SYRIA AND THE WEST: FROM THE AFTERMATH OF THE ARAB SPRING IN THE MIDDLE EAST TO RADICALISATION AND IMMIGRATION ISSUES IN EUROPE EDITED BY VLADIMIR SAZONOV, ILLIMAR PLOOM AND ANDRES SAUMETS SÕJATEADLANE 13 / 2019 SÕJATEADLANE ESTONIAN JOURNAL OF MILITARY STUDIES Peatoimetaja / Editor-in-chief: Andres Saumets (Estonia) Toimetuskolleegium / Editorial Board: Wilfried Gerhard (Germany) Claus Freiherr von Rosen (Germany) Ken Kalling (Estonia) Karl Salum (Estonia) Jörg Keller (Germany) Vladimir Sazonov (Estonia) Erik Männik (Estonia) Volker Stümke (Germany) Andreas Pawlas (Germany) René Värk (Estonia) Nele Rand (Estonia) Keeletoimetajad / Language Editors: Karen Kuldnokk (Estonia) Amy Christine Tserenkova (USA) Kaarin Piiskoppel (Estonia) Elle Vatsar (Estonia) Marju Randlane (Estonia) Nõuandev kogu / International Advisory Committee: Enno Mõts (Committee Manager, Estonia) Tõnu Lehtsaar (Estonia) Raul Järviste (Estonia) Rain Liivoja (Australia) Hubert Annen (Switzerland) Gale A. Mattox (USA) Richard H. Clevenger (USA) Ago Pajur (Estonia) Angelika Dörfler-Dierken (Germany) Robert Rollinger (Austria) Sharon M. Freeman-Clevenger (USA) Michael N. Schmitt (USA) Martin Herem (Estonia) Martti Turtola (Finland) Thomas R. Kämmerer (Germany) Zdzislaw Śliwa (Poland) Jakob Kübarsepp (Estonia) Ants Laaneots (Estonia) Sõjateadlane (Estonian Journal of Military Studies) on Kaitseväe Akadeemias väljaantav, eelretsen- seeritav ja rahvusvahelise toimetuskolleegiumiga sõjateaduslik ajakiri. Sõjateadlane (Estonian Journal of Military Studies), the journal of the Estonian Military Academy (EMA) is a peer-reviewed military journal with an international board of editors and open to international contributors. Väljaandja ja autoriõigus / Publisher and Copyright: Kaitseväe Akadeemia, 2019 Toimetuse kontakt / Editorial Contact: Riia 12, 51010 Tartu, Estonia Tel: +372 717 6421 E-mail: [email protected] Ajakirja koduleht / Homepage of the Journal: https://www.kvak.ee/sojateadlane/ Kaastööd / Address for Submission: [email protected] Kirjastus / Publishing House: Eesti Ülikoolide Kirjastus, www.eyk.ee ISSN 2461-4378 (print) ISSN 2461-4386 (online) SISUKORD / TABLE OF CONTENTS INTRODUCTION................................................................................... 7 Illimar Ploom, Vladimir Sazonov RUSSIA’S PURSUIT OF POWER IN THE MIDDLE EAST: CONTEXT, STRATEGY AND METHODS ......................................... 11 Illimar Ploom, Vladimir Sazonov, Viljar Veebel THE POLITICO-MILITARY ASPECTS OF RUSSIAN ENGAGEMENT IN THE SYRIAN CIVIL WAR ................................ 46 Zdzisław Śliwa THE SECOND “ARAB BELT” IN SYRIA IN THE MAKING? ......... 72 Hille Hanso INSIGHTS INTO THE IDEOLOGICAL CORE AND POLITICAL PILLARS OF ISIS ............................................................. 87 Vladimir Sazonov, Illimar Ploom IS THE EUROPEAN MIGRANT CRISIS ANOTHER STAGE OF HYBRID WAR? ............................................................................... 116 Yurii Punda, Vitalii Shevchuk, Viljar Veebel ASYLUM SEEKERS: VICTIMS OR A NOVEL WEAPON FOR THE 21ST CENTURY? ................................................................... 136 Yevhen Mahda, Valentine Bieliaiev, Artur Borsuk OVERVIEW OF METHODS SUPPORTING THE DE-RADICALISATION AND DISENGAGEMENT OF ISLAMIC RADICALS ..................................................................... 149 Heidi Maiberg VENEMAA FÖDERATSIOONI VÕIMALIK ROLL 2015. AASTA RÄNDEKRIISIS NING SEOS RADIKALISEERUMISE PÕHJUSTEGA EESTI MOSLEMITE LÕIMUMISEL ......................... 180 Katrin Tammekun SÕJALISED ERAETTEVÕTTED KAASAJAL ................................... 200 Ants Laaneots CONTRIBUTORS .................................................................................. 225 INTRODUCTION Illimar Ploom and Vladimir Sazonov Illimar Ploom, Vladimir Sazonov This special issue of the Estonian Journal of Military Studies titled “Russia, Syria and the West: From the Aftermath of the Arab Spring in the Middle East to Radicalisation and Immigration Issues in Europe” takes a closer look at Russia’s activities and its growing influence in Syria and in the wider region, focusing on its larger implications for the Middle East and for all the parties involved, including the West. As regards the latter, and specifically European security, the challenges and issues related to the Arab Spring and the Syrian Civil War include the 2015 migrant and refugee crisis, the multiple threats posed by ISIS (incl. the rise of terrorism), and finally, the radicalisation of sections of European societies. Furthermore, Russia’s involvement in the Middle East has added an extra twist to the situation. The resulting triangle involving implications for the West and Europe warrants more comprehensive analysis, and this collection of articles intends to offer some insights. The truism that the world is growing increasingly interdependent has been applicable to developments in the Middle East for a long time. The position and impact of the region is such that any changes in its political or economic balance reverberate across the world. The past decade has once again made its influence particularly clear for the West, sometimes even in painful ways. However, it must be admitted that this is a reciprocal relation- ship, the Middle Eastern perspective often conveying the same about West- ern influence. In this context, the somewhat unexpected move by Russia to intervene directly in the Syrian Civil War has managed to reshuffle the pack of cards once more, positing many questions that require answers. While there have already been many engaging analyses of these issues, they have mostly concentrated on Syria itself or focused on Russia’s goals and actions in the region. However, there have not been many comprehensive attempts to tie together the Middle East, Russia’s strategy and Western efforts. This volume intends to do precisely that. Altogether, this special issue is intended to offer a wider perspective with several articles pursuing threads that more or less explicitly tie all the three elements together. In addition, we will also offer more detailed accounts of specific critical aspects of the conflict. Sõjateadlane (Estonian Journal of Military Studies), Volume 13, 2019, pp. 7–10. https://www.kvak.ee/sojateadlane/ 8 I LLIMAR PLOOM, Vladimir Sazonov The focal point of this volume is Russia’s intervention in Syria that calls for closer scrutiny, both from political and military vantage points. Of par- ticular interest here is the use of private military companies, which deserves scrutiny, especially in the case of Russia. However, the situation in Syria is also a story of several peoples and many intersecting interests, and in that context, for example, the question of the Kurds and their efforts to achieve greater autonomy is also relevant, especially considering that the U.S. with- drawal and Russia’s intervention may have opened a way for Turkey to make some critical moves. Speaking of Syria, one can hardly overlook the ques- tion of ISIS, especially its identity and ideology. What are its core elements and how has it developed? What is Russia’s stance towards ISIS, and how does it manage its tightrope act of balancing the interests of the Shia and the Sunni communities in the Middle East? In addition, the prolonged con- flict has had several side effects, one of the most critical being the issue of migration. Is it something that could be understood also in terms of hybrid war, in the context of Russia’s strategic interests and the apparent vulner- ability of European societies? Furthermore, in addition to the larger issue of migration, the overwhelming refugee crisis that hit Europe in 2015, warrants deeper exploration of weaponising large-scale forced migration. The changes in the Middle East have also had an impact on the radicalisation of societies,