MARINE MAMMAL AERIAL SURVEYS IN ECLIPSE SOUND, MILNE INLET AND POND INLET, 1 AUGUST – 17 SEPTEMBER 2015 by for LGL DRAFT Report FA0059-2 15 March 2016 MARINE MAMMAL AERIAL SURVEYS IN ECLIPSE SOUND, MILNE INLET AND POND INLET, 1 AUGUST – 17 SEPTEMBER 2015 by Tannis A. Thomas, Scott Raborn, Robert E. Elliott and Valerie D. Moulton LGL Limited, environmental research associates P.O. Box 280, King City, ON L7B 1A6 [email protected] for Baffinland Iron Mines Corporation 2275 Upper Middle Road East, Suite 300 Oakville, ON L6H 0C3 LGL DRAFT Report FA0059-2 15 March 2016 Suggested format for citation: Thomas, T.A., S. Raborn, R.E. Elliott and V.D. Moulton. 2016. Marine mammal aerial surveys in Eclipse Sound, Milne Inlet and Pond Inlet, 1 August – 17 September 2015. LGL Draft Report No. FA0059-2. Prepared by LGL Limited, King City, ON for Baffinland Iron Mines Corporation, Oakville, ON. 85 p. + appendices. Page ii Disclaimer This technical report is considered a draft and is subject to review and input from the Marine Environment Working Group (MEWG) established for the Mary River Project. Page iii This page intentionally left blank. Table of Contents TABLE OF CONTENTS Summary of Approach and Key Findings .................................................................................... xii Extensive Aerial Surveys ................................................................................................... xiii Photographic Surveys ......................................................................................................... xiii Summary ............................................................................................................................ xiv 1 Introduction ........................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Background .................................................................................................................. 1 1.2 Objectives .................................................................................................................... 2 1.3 Narwhals ...................................................................................................................... 2 1.3.1 General Distribution and Population Status ..................................................... 2 1.3.2 Migration .......................................................................................................... 4 1.3.3 Summering Areas ............................................................................................. 4 1.3.4 Narwhal Response to Vessels .......................................................................... 5 1.3.5 Subsistence Harvest ......................................................................................... 6 1.4 Bowhead Whales ......................................................................................................... 7 1.4.1 General Distribution and Population Status ..................................................... 7 1.4.2 Migration and Summering Areas ..................................................................... 8 1.5 Other Marine Mammals ............................................................................................... 9 2 Description of the Study Area ............................................................................................... 9 2.1 Ice .............................................................................................................................. 10 2.2 Bathymetry ................................................................................................................ 10 3 Methods ............................................................................................................................... 12 3.1 Survey Design in 2015 ............................................................................................... 12 3.1.1 Extensive Survey............................................................................................ 12 3.1.2 Photographic Survey ...................................................................................... 13 3.2 Data Recording Procedures ....................................................................................... 13 3.2.1 Extensive Survey............................................................................................ 13 3.2.2 Photographic Survey ...................................................................................... 16 3.3 Analysis Procedures ................................................................................................... 18 3.3.1 Extensive Surveys .......................................................................................... 18 3.3.1.1 Geographic Strata ................................................................................... 18 3.3.1.2 Density Estimates ................................................................................... 19 3.3.1.3 Narwhal Group Size ............................................................................... 20 3.3.1.4 Shipping Activity ................................................................................... 20 3.3.2 Photographic Surveys .................................................................................... 20 3.3.2.1 Categorizing Data Relative to Ship Transits .......................................... 21 3.3.2.2 Calculating Narwhal Closest Points of Approach .................................. 21 3.3.2.3 Narwhal Orientation ............................................................................... 21 3.3.2.4 Density Estimates ................................................................................... 21 Page v Table of Contents 3.4 Statistical Models ....................................................................................................... 23 3.4.1 Extensive Surveys .......................................................................................... 23 3.4.2 Photographic Surveys .................................................................................... 26 4 Results ................................................................................................................................. 27 4.1 Survey Effort in 2015 ................................................................................................ 27 4.1.1 Extensive Surveys .......................................................................................... 27 4.1.2 Photographic Surveys .................................................................................... 27 4.2 Survey Conditions in 2015 ........................................................................................ 29 4.2.1 Extensive Surveys .......................................................................................... 29 4.2.2 Photographic Surveys .................................................................................... 29 4.3 Shipping Activity in 2015 .......................................................................................... 29 4.3.1 Extensive Surveys .......................................................................................... 30 4.3.1.1 Survey Period 1: 1 August 2015 ............................................................ 30 4.3.1.2 Survey Period 2: 16−17 August 2015 .................................................... 32 4.3.1.3 Survey Period 3: 31 August 2015 .......................................................... 33 4.3.1.4 Survey Period 4: 15 and 17 September 2015 ......................................... 34 4.3.2 Photographic Surveys .................................................................................... 34 4.3.2.1 Photo Survey 1: 18 August 2015 ........................................................... 35 4.3.2.2 Photo Survey 2: 22 August 2015 ........................................................... 36 4.3.2.3 Photo Survey 3: 30 August 2015 ........................................................... 37 4.3.2.4 Photo Survey 4: 4 September 2015 ........................................................ 38 4.4 Extensive Survey Sightings, Density Estimates, and Model Results ........................ 39 4.4.1 Marine Mammal Sightings in 2015—Overview ............................................ 39 4.4.1.1 Pinnipeds ................................................................................................ 40 4.4.2 Narwhals ........................................................................................................ 42 4.4.2.1 Numbers Observed and Group Size ....................................................... 42 4.4.2.2 General Observations ............................................................................. 43 4.4.2.3 Density Estimates ................................................................................... 43 4.4.3 Generalized Non-linear Mixed Model ........................................................... 49 4.5 Photographic Survey Results ..................................................................................... 52 4.5.1 Marine Mammal Sightings—Overview ......................................................... 52 4.5.1.1 Bowhead Whale ..................................................................................... 52 4.5.1.2 Pinnipeds ................................................................................................ 53 4.5.2 Narwhals ........................................................................................................ 54