Nigeria Agricultural Extension and Advisory Services Conflict Assessment FEED THE FUTURE NIGERIA AGRICULTURAL EXTENSION AND ADVISORY SERVICES ACTIVITY Conflict Assessment July 2020 Submission Date: July 8, 2020 Contract Number: 72062020C00001 Activity Start Date and End Date: May 25, 2020 to May 24, 2025 COR Name: Charles Iyangbe Submitted by: Jennifer Snow, Associate Director, Agriculture, Resilience, & Water Winrock International 2101 Riverfront Drive, Little Rock, AR 72202 Tel: +1 501-280-3073 Email: [email protected] This document was produced for review by the United States Agency for International Development Nigeria (USAID/Nigeria). 1 Nigeria Agricultural Extension and Advisory Services Conflict Assessment 2 Nigeria Agricultural Extension and Advisory Services Conflict Assessment Table of Contents Acronyms ...................................................................................................................................................... 4 1. Introduction/Executive Summary ......................................................................................................... 5 2. Objective and Methodology ................................................................................................................. 5 Objective ................................................................................................................................................... 5 Methodology ............................................................................................................................................. 6 Target States ......................................................................................................................................... 6 Data Collection ...................................................................................................................................... 6 Sample Size, Population, Techniques ................................................................................................... 7 Data Analysis ......................................................................................................................................... 7 Limitations due to COVID-19................................................................................................................. 7 Applicability for the project ...................................................................................................................... 8 3. Summary of Conflict Factors in Nigeria................................................................................................. 8 Natural Risk Factors and Agricultural and Natural Resource Disputes ................................................... 10 Terrorism/Extremist Groups ................................................................................................................... 12 Boko Haram......................................................................................................................................... 12 Ansaru (Jama’atu Ansarul Muslimina Fi Biladis Sudan, or Vanguards for the Protection of Muslims in Black Africa) ........................................................................................................................................ 13 Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) ............................................................ 13 Niger Delta Avengers (NDA) ................................................................................................................ 14 Ethnic and Religious Violence/Conflict ................................................................................................... 14 Economic and Social Exclusion................................................................................................................ 15 Gender Considerations ....................................................................................................................... 16 Youth ................................................................................................................................................... 18 Politics and Governance ......................................................................................................................... 18 Security Risks .......................................................................................................................................... 19 COVID-19 ................................................................................................................................................. 21 Peacebuilding Efforts .............................................................................................................................. 23 State-Specific Issues and Priorities ......................................................................................................... 23 4. Recommendations .............................................................................................................................. 24 3 Nigeria Agricultural Extension and Advisory Services Conflict Assessment ACRONYMS AEAS Feed the Future Nigeria Agricultural Extension and Advisory Services Activity APC All Progressive’s Congress CSOs Civil Society Organizations FEWSNET Famine Early Warning Systems Network FTF Feed the Future GDP Gross Domestic Product GON Government of Nigeria ICT Information and Communication Technology IS Islamic State LGA Local Government Area MEL Monitoring, Evaluation, and Learning MEND Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta NDA Niger Delta Avengers NEMA National Emergency Management Agency NGOs Non-Governmental Organizations OECD Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development PDP People’s Democratic Party PIND Partnership Initiatives in the Niger Delta PLWD Persons Living with Disabilities SALW Small Arms and Light Weapons SEMA State Emergency Management Agency SME Small or Medium Enterprise UN United Nations UN OCHA United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Assistance UPCDP Uppsala Conflict Data Program USAID U.S. Agency for International Development VC Value Chain ZOI Zone of Influence 4 Nigeria Agricultural Extension and Advisory Services Conflict Assessment 1. INTRODUCTION/EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Feed the Future (FTF) Nigeria Agricultural Extension and Advisory Services (AEAS) Activity is leveraging the power of Nigerian entrepreneurship to facilitate learning, replication, and scale around alternative models of extension to increase access and adoption of agricultural technologies for two million smallholder producers in the FTF focus states of Benue, Cross River, Delta, Ebonyi, Kaduna, Kebbi, and Niger and target value chains (VCs) of maize, rice, soy, cowpea, and aquaculture. Across Nigeria, conflicts or disputes are common and can be related to ethnic, religious, demographic, cultural, political, economic, or civic tensions – or more probably – a combination of these. Such conflicts occur at urban, rural, or national levels, and could involve disputes over farmlands, ponds, rivers, or ranches.1 Conflict is always multilayered and complex, especially where there is a competition for resources. The seven states within the AEAS zone of influence (ZOI) are very diverse, but there are common causes of conflict that run through all the target states. Primary drivers of conflict in Nigeria include: • Natural resource disputes and increasing competition for land and resources, made more difficult as a result of climate change • Violent extremist organizations • Ethnic and religious divisions • Economic and social exclusion and poverty – particularly for women and youth • Political antagonism born of mistrust, corruption, and lack of transparency • Increased availability of unregulated small and light weapons • More recently, COVID-19 This conflict assessment outlines the conflicts and underlying causes within in the ZOI for the AEAS Activity, particularly as they relate to work in the agriculture sector. Given time constraints and COVID- related limitations to in-country travel and in-person gatherings, this assessment was approached as a “rapid assessment,” providing a bigger picture analysis of the major causes of conflict, risk factors, and implications across the country. Limited first-hand information was able to be collected at the state level. This data was used to examine the latent, active and post-conflict phases of conflict and underlying causes in each of the target states, so as to create the enabling environment for the project’s success and a “Do No Harm” approach. This document will be a living document and can be updated as work progresses on AEAS. Specific dimensions of conflict – particularly as related to security, agriculture, natural resources, climate change, gender, youth, and economic conditions – will be analyzed at every stage of the project, from work planning through implementation and monitoring, evaluation, and learning (MEL) activities. 2. OBJECTIVE AND METHODOLOGY Objective This conflict assessment intends to provide detailed understanding of the local conflict dynamics, to 1 International Journal of Education Research, Vol. 6 No. 6, June 2018. 5 Nigeria Agricultural Extension and Advisory Services Conflict Assessment enable AEAS to understand and address the underlying causes of conflict related to violence and identify and support opportunities for peacebuilding. AEAS will use a conflict lens in the design of interventions, first, to “do no harm;” second, to mitigate rather than fuel conflict; and third, to