Appendix 13-1 Climate Risk and Vulnerability Assessment June 2019 India: Rajasthan State Highway Investment Program (Tranche 2) Prepared by Public Works Department, Government of Rajasthan for the Asian Development Bank. CLIMATE RISK AND VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT (CRVA) Project: ADB-P-49228-003-IND: Rajasthan State Highway Investment Program (RSHIP-Tranche-II) 26 March 2019 TABLE OF CONTENTS Chapter Content Page No. 1 Introduction 1 1.1 Background 1 1.2 Sector Climate Risk and Vulnerability 2 1.3 Institutional, Regulatory, Legal and Policy Frameworks of Rajasthan 3 2 Project Description 5 2.1 Project Area Physiography 5 2.2 The Tranche-II Project Roads 6 2.3 Climate Risk and Vulnerability Assessment (CRVA) – The Rationale 8 2.4 Scope, Methodology and Limitations 9 2.4.1 Scope 9 2.4.2 Methodology 9 2.4.3 Limitations 10 2.5 Data Inventory and Collection 10 3 Climate and Climate Change in the Project Area 11 3.1 The Baseline Climate 11 3.2 Observed Climate Trends 12 3.2.1 Mean Temperature and Rainfall Trends 12 3.2.2 Trends in Extreme Events 13 3.3 Future Climate Projections 13 4 Climate Risk and Vulnerability Assessment 15 4.1 Hazard Characterization 15 4.2 Exposure and Sensitivity 16 4.2.1 Exposure to Extreme Heat 16 4.2.2 Exposure to River Flooding 16 4.2.3 Exposure to Urban Flooding 17 4.3 Vulnerability and Adaptive Responses 18 4.3.1 Temperature and Asphalt Pavement 18 4.3.2 Flooding and Drainage Improvement 18 5 Proposed Adaptation Actions and Costs 20 5.1 Proposed Adaptation Measures 20 5.1.1 Short Term Measures 20 5.1.2 Long Term Measures 20 5.2 Costs of Incremental Adaptation Measures 21 6 Conclusion 24 Appendix – I: Glossary of Terms and Terminologies 25 Appendix –II: (Hyperlinks to Excel Files on) Tranche-II Project Costs of 26 CC Adaptation Bibliography 26 List of Tables Page No Table 1.1 List of Tranche-II Roads, Rajasthan 1 Table 1.2 Generic Impacts on Roads by Climate Sensitive Hazards 3 Table 2.1 Brief Descriptions of Physiographic Divisions of Rajasthan 5 and Location of Tranche-II Roads by Districts Table 2.2 Characteristics of Tranche-II Roads 6 Table 4.1 Climate Induced Hazard Profiles of Tranche-II Roads 15 Table 4.2 Recommended Bitumen Grades by Temperature 18 Table 5.1 Cost Overview with Climate Change Considerations for 23 Rajasthan Tranche-II Project Roads List of Figures Page No Figure 1.1 Institutional Arrangement for RSAPCC 4 Figure 4.1 Flood Prone Areas of Rajasthan 17 Figure 5.1 Total Civil Cost = BAU Cost + CC Incremental Cost 22 Figure 5.2 CC Adaptation Cost vs. BAU Cost 22 Figure 5.3 Break-Up of CC Incremental Costs 22 1. Introduction 1.1 Background 1. Rajasthan is India’s largest State and covers about 10% (342,239 sq. km) of total area of the country. It has a population of about 68.6 million which represents about 5% of the total population of India. In terms of road transport network, the State of Rajasthan has a total road network of 193,017 km including 7,260 km of national highways, 10,953 km of state highways, and 9,900 km of major district roads (MDRs), 25,033 km of other district roads, and 139,871 km of village /rural roads. The road density in Rajasthan is about 60 km per 100 square km (sq.km), which is slightly below the national average of 110. Nearly 80% of the total roads are of single lane configuration. Years of under-investment due to paucity of financial resources and inadequate maintenance has left many of the state highways and MDRs in poor condition in terms of ride quality, geometry, pavement strength, drainage, and safety standards thus constraining the State’s goal of all-inclusive growth. 2. To improve the core road network comprising of state highways and MDRs, the State Government has initiated the Rajasthan State Highways Development Program (RSHDP) that aims at improving some 20,000 km of state highways and MDRs in a phase-wise manner. The Government of Rajasthan (GoR) has requested the Asian Development Bank (ADB) to consider a multi-tranche financing facility (MFF) of $500 million to finance part of the RSHDP. The MFF lends support to road improvement contracts under Build Operate and Transfer (BOT) financing models through public private partnership (PPP) annuity and engineering procurement and construction (EPC) modalities. The earlier Tranche I comprised of 16 roads totaling 979.7 km grouped under 4 contract packages in the State of Rajasthan. 3. Tranche-II of the MFF intends to upgrade about 754 km of roads dispersed in 11 roadways of the State, with some salient details as given in Table 1.1. Table 1.1 List of Tranche-II Roads, Rajasthan 2 4. From Table 1.1, it can be seen that there are 6 roadways budgeted under EPC model, and 5 under PPP annuity model. The total lengths of roads to be improved are set aside into 6 packages, 4 packages under EPC model that covers 474 km of road in terms of total length and 2 packages under PPP model that covers the remaining 289 km of road. The total estimated cost of civil works for the 11 packages of Tranche-II road development project is Rs. 16,270.90 million and taking into other miscellaneous and administrative costs, the grand total cost for Tranche-II is estimated to be about Rs. 18,662.4 million. 1.2 Sector Climate Risk and Vulnerability 5. Scientific evidence shows that the warming of the global climate system is unequivocal: global average temperatures are higher than they were in past centuries and they continue to increase. As a result, seas and oceans are warming, polar ice caps are melting, sea levels are rising, and there are more varied and extreme weather patterns. In general, temperatures will be on average higher, there will be more incidents of record hot weather, precipitation levels and flooding risk will be higher, and there will be more frequent and more severe extreme weather events. 6. Depending on future global warming and the region of Rajasthan in India, transport modes and system components could be affected by one or several simultaneous changes in climate conditions, including hotter summers, extreme precipitation events and increased flooding. If such impacts are not anticipated in future transport infrastructure design and maintenance, those changing weather conditions could, in some areas of Rajasthan, accelerate their deterioration, increase severe damages risks, traffic interruption and accidents which could, on their turn, adversely affect economic activities of the State. 7. Climate vulnerability has been traditionally understood in terms of a relationship between exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. Climate change vulnerability levels are influenced by variables such as geographic location, the local environment and the ability of local authorities to both respond to events and adapt their assets in advance. The vulnerability of road infrastructure to climate change would depend on factors such as pavement type and condition and also on location-specific factors such as geology, traffic flow, and proximity to water courses. Climate change induced deterioration is expected to create more severe damage through increased frequency of extreme events thus creating the demand for more routine and structural maintenance. 8. In terms of road infrastructure in the State of Rajasthan, higher summer temperatures and prolonged periods of heat waves pose the potential to increase damages to road pavements and affect the structural integrity of bridges. Although Rajasthan State is characterized for the most parts a desert or arid region, yet intense rainstorms are not uncommon. Such may cause the capacities of drainage structures and tunnels as well as bridges to be exceeded. Increasing rainfall is expected to raise water levels and groundwater levels, which is likely to make road infrastructure less stable and increase the risk of damage to embankment earthworks. 9. Some of the generic impacts by natural hazards / climatic stressors on roadways infrastructure are compiled in Table 1.2, but given a wide range of primary climate drivers, only those variables deemed important or relevant to roads are identified here. All listed factors/events are expected to occur more often and their impacts will be more severe according to existing climate models. 3 Table 1.2 Generic Impacts on Roads by Climate Sensitive Hazards Factor Effect Impact on Roads / Assets 1. Temperature change of distribution patterns, higher average and maximum temperature 1.1 High Temperatures and overheating Heat Waves Rutting and Surface Cracking of Highway 1.2 Sudden temperature Tension Pavements changes 1.3 Intense solar radiation Overheating 2. Precipitation change of distribution patterns, more extreme events 2.1 Intense Rainfall Soil erosion, Damage to earthworks, embankments, drainage landslides, flooding systems 2.2 Extended rain periods Slower drainage, soil Impacts infrastructure assets and operation erosion 2.3 Flooding: coastal, surface Landslides, flooding Drainage systems, tunnels, bridges water, fluvial 2.4 Drought Desiccation Earthworks desiccation 3. Wind change of distribution patterns, more extreme events 3.1 Storm / gale (inland) Higher wind forces, damage to installations, restrictions/disruption of uprooting of trees road transport operation 1.3 Institutional, Regulatory, Legal and Policy Frameworks of Rajasthan 10. In 2010, the Rajasthan State Government established a ‘Climate Change and Clean Development Mechanism Cell’ in the Rajasthan State Pollution Control Board (RSPCB) to act as a nodal agency for coordinating issues related to climate change in the State. The Rajasthan State Action Plan on Climate Change (RSAPCC1, 2010) was developed to provide important pointers on priority intervention areas for climate adaptation in various key sectors of the State Government such as (a) water resources, (b) agriculture and animal husbandry, (c) human health, (d) forest and biodiversity, (e) energy, and (f) governance and sustainable habitat.