URN: 02D1071 Project Number: MH-0140- HUMANITY AND SPACE An Interactive Qualifying Project Report submitted to the Faculty of WORCESTER POLYTECHNIC INSTITUTE in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Bachelor of Science by Victoria Chaplick 6vCjek Berlinda Fernan ez Nathaniel Godin Ian Walton Date: April 26, 2002 essor Mayer Humi, Advisor Table of Contents Abstract 4 Executive Summary 5 Introduction 6 1.2 Motivations for and Dangers of Space Travel 16 1.3 Additional Considerations 26 1.3.1 Humanity's Needs in Space 27 1.3.2 The Possibility of Alien Life Forms 30 1.4 Destinations for Space Colonization 34 1.4.1 Space Station Colonization 34 1.4.2 Safety Concerns for Permanently Inhabited Space Stations 35 1.4.3 Economic Possibilities and Social Situations in Space Stations 36 1.4.4 Lunar Colonization 39 1.4.5 Asteroid Colonization 42 1.4.6 Martian Colonization 47 2.1 Stages for the Colonization of Mars 49 2.1.1 Scientific Research 50 2.1.2 Human Exploration and Colonization of Mars 52 2.1.3 Commercialization of Mars 53 2.1.4 Terraforming Mars 54 2.2 The Pros and Cons of Colonizing Mars 55 2.2.1 The Technological and Scientific Benefits of Colonizing Mars 56 2.2.2 The Case Against Colonizing Mars 60 2.3 Historical and Legal Aspects of Colonization 64 2.3.1 Historical Analogies 64 2.3.2 Legal Aspects of Mars Colonization 67 2.4 NASA's Current Preparations for a Mission to Mars 70 2.4.1 Proposed Plans for a Manned Mission to Mars 71 2.4.2 Mars Direct Mission Plan 72 2.4.3 Mars Semi-Direct Mission Plan 74 2.4.4 Transportation to Mars 75 2.4.5 Radiation Hazards of Interplanetary Space Travel 86 2.4.6 Dangers from Martian Dust Storms 89 2.4.7 The Existence of Water on Mars 91 2.5 Biological Considerations for Colonization 93 2.5.1 Physical Effects of Reduced Gravity 93 2.5.2 Physical Effects of Radiation 98 2.5.3 Mental Health 100 2.6 Making Mars Fit for Human Habitation 103 2.6.1 Considerations for Shelter Upon Mars 104 2.6.2 Terraforming Mars 108 2.6.3 Suitable Plant Life for a Terraformed Mars 112 Conclusion and Recommendations 115 2 Bibliography 119 Section 1.1 119 Section 1.2 120 Section 1.3 121 Section 1.4 121 Section 2.1 123 Section 2.2 123 Section 2.3 124 Section 2.4 125 Section 2.5 126 Section 2.6 127 Conclusion 128 Appendices 129 Appendix A: Known Meteor Craters vs The Geologic Time Scale 129 Appendix B: Distribution of Asteroids 133 Appendix C: Probability of a Meteor Impact 134 Appendix D: Pictures of Recent Impact Sites 135 Appendix E: Tunguska: The Cosmic Mystery of the Century 136 Appendix F: Solar Output Models 140 Appendix G: Recent Temperature Trends 143 Appendix H: The Aurora 144 Appendix I: Devon Island 145 Appendix J: Haughton Crater Field Report 148 Appendix L: Threshold Effects of Prompt Radiation Doses 171 3 Abstract This project examined the perennial desire of humanity to travel through and colonize space. We explored the obstacles that must be overcome and research that has to be performed in order to attain this goal. In particular, a blueprint for establishing a colony on Mars has been developed. Using our findings, it is conceivable for humanity to establish its first colony on Mars within 50 years. We have made recommendations regarding policies and research into space exploration. 4 Executive Summary The goal of this paper is to explore the possibilities that exist for human colonization of outer space over the next one hundred years. To begin with, the potential worth of space colonization and the motivations behind such are examined. Following that, potential locations for colonization are discussed and contrasted. The details behind actual colonization are then evaluated, wherein the specific obstacles to this project are outlined and potential solutions are offered. Throughout the course of this paper, it is shown that there are many potential benefits to colonizing space, among them a wealth of scientific and applied knowledge, a unifying goal for the people of the world to rally around, and the advancement of the human species as a whole through further adaptation to the universe around us. It is also asserted that Mars is the best available location for a human settlement off of the planet Earth, due to its relative proximity to this planet and its close approximation of the conditions that humans have evolved to live in when compared to the other potential locations. Although space stations and the Moon could have value as way stations and asteroids could be mined for valuable minerals in support of an outer space colony, Mars is by far the preferable location for the colony itself. If the people of Earth wish to colonize Mars within a reasonable time frame, an organized plan must be followed. It is suggested in this paper that the project be split into four main phases. The first phase, which is already under way, would involve research varying from radiation shielding for space shuttles to the effects of a low gravity environment upon various organisms to initial surveys of Mars by non-manned probes sent to locate ideal landing sites and possible sources of water. It is estimated that this phase could be completed in a fully satisfactory manner within a few decades. The second phase would involve manned exploration of the surface of the planet Mars in order to prepare for the eventual construction of a permanent colony. The next phase would call for the start of a colony of limited size. Finally, long-term preparations for the eventual prosperity of the colony would need to be addressed, including economic independence from Earth, a permanent governmental system, and the process of terraforming the planet into a more habitable land. 5 Introduction When we look up at the stars in the night sky, we know a good amount about what we are looking at due to modern technology. However, there were many generations who didn't yet have the precious knowledge that we have today. Even without that knowledge, our ancestors developed their own ideas and theories to explain the mysteries of the heavens. It is believed now that astronomy is the oldest science in existence. Many different cultures, including the Greeks, Babylonians, Chinese, Egyptians, Celts, Aztecs and Mayans all devised theories simply by looking at the stars. The ancient Greeks studied the sky by creating constellations. They paid close attention to the stars and noticed that several stars appeared to move, and would show up and disappear at various times of the year. They named these stars "wandering stars," or planets, and these planets were named after their Gods. These five planets that can be identified without a telescope are: Mercury, Venus, Jupiter, Mars and Saturn. The Greeks also believed that the God Helios drove a chariot across the sky, what we now call the Sun (Seimens). Ptolemy added his ideas to Aristotle's ideas to come up with the "Geocentric" theory, which is a theory that claimed that the Earth was the center of the universe and that everything else revolved around it. This theory maintained that the sky was a crystal sphere and that as the sphere turned, so did the stars in it (Seimens). Stonehenge is thought to be an intricate calendar that used the stars as a guide. Current estimates list its creation as some time between the years 3000 B.C. and 1500 B.C. By 1200 B.C. the Chinese astrologers had a calendar worked out that had 365.25 days per year, the same that we follow today. The Babylonians created a calendar that was based on the phases of the moon, and they also created the sundial. "The Egyptian calendar was based upon the times when the star, Sirius and the constellation of Osirus (we call it Orion) came into view. Because the earth revolves around the sun, these stars were out of view for about 70 days. They came back into view just before the Nile flooded. The ancient Egyptians believed that [the sun was]... the red disk born from Nut (the god of the sky) and traveled along the length of her body then was swallowed in the evening. The empty sun returned beneath her body at night to begin the cycle again the next morning" (Seimens). 6 Time Line 15,000 B.C.- Humans in the Ice Age start to track the number of moons by scratching marks into bones. 1500B.C.- Stonehenge was built outside of Salisbury, England. It was used to track the movement of the sun and mark the solstice. Only seven stones still stand today. This photo shows it as it would have stood when it was built. Stonehenge, 1500 B.C. (Copyright by Aardvark Communications. All rights reserved) Stonehenge, 1996 A.D. (Copyright © 1996 by Bradley Keyes. All rights reserved) 7 1200-1000 BC- Babylonians study 'astrology,' the belief that people's lives were influenced by the stars. They invented the 12 signs that are still used today. Around the same time, the Greeks name most of the stars and the constellations (Hercules, Perseus, Cassiopea and Cygnus). They also name the "the wandering stars". We now know these wandering stars as planets. The Greeks named these after their gods, Mercury, Venus, Mars & Jupiter. 332 B.C.- Alexander the Great builds a great museum-library-observatory at the mouth of the Nile in Alexandra.