Climate Change and Health Vulnerability Report WINDSOR-ESSEX COUNTY HEALTH UNIT 2 Table of Contents Introduction ........................................................................................................................................................... 8 What is climate change? ........................................................................................................................................... 8 What is climate change adaptation? ........................................................................................................................ 8 What is climate change mitigation? ......................................................................................................................... 9 Climate Change and Health Vulnerability Assessment in WEC ............................................................................. 10 Methodology ....................................................................................................................................................... 11 Assessment Process: ............................................................................................................................................... 11 Assessment Scope ................................................................................................................................................... 11 Limitations .............................................................................................................................................................. 13 Community Overview .......................................................................................................................................... 15 CLIMATE-RELATED OUTCOMES ..................................................................................................... 18 1. Extreme Temperatures ............................................................................................................................... 18 Heat Trends ............................................................................................................................................................. 19 Heat Projections...................................................................................................................................................... 20 Heat – Related Illness.............................................................................................................................................. 21 High Risk Groups ..................................................................................................................................................... 23 Cold Trends ............................................................................................................................................................. 24 Cold Projections ...................................................................................................................................................... 24 Cold – Related Illness .............................................................................................................................................. 25 High Risk Groups ..................................................................................................................................................... 26 Adaptive Capacity for Extreme Temperatures ........................................................................................................ 26 2. Extreme Weather ....................................................................................................................................... 28 Extreme Weather Trends ........................................................................................................................................ 29 Extreme Weather Projections ................................................................................................................................. 30 Health Impacts ........................................................................................................................................................ 30 High Risk Groups ..................................................................................................................................................... 32 Adaptive Capacity to Extreme Weather ................................................................................................................. 32 3. Poor Air Quality .......................................................................................................................................... 34 Air Pollutant Trends ................................................................................................................................................ 34 Health Impacts ........................................................................................................................................................ 38 High Risk Groups ..................................................................................................................................................... 39 Adaptive Capacity to Air Quality ............................................................................................................................. 40 4. Food and Water Contamination ................................................................................................................. 41 Food and Water Borne Disease Trends .................................................................................................................. 42 High Risk Groups ..................................................................................................................................................... 45 Adaptive Capacity to Food and Water Contamination ........................................................................................... 46 5. Vector-Borne Diseases ................................................................................................................................ 47 Vector-Borne Disease Trends ................................................................................................................................. 47 High Risk Groups ..................................................................................................................................................... 52 Adaptive Capacity to Vector borne Diseases .......................................................................................................... 52 6. Ultraviolet Radiation Exposure ................................................................................................................... 53 3 Health impacts ........................................................................................................................................................ 53 Stratospheric Ozone Depletion ............................................................................................................................... 55 High Risk Groups ..................................................................................................................................................... 55 Adaptive Capacity to UV Radiation ......................................................................................................................... 55 Next Steps ........................................................................................................................................................... 56 Glossary: .............................................................................................................................................................. 57 References: .......................................................................................................................................................... 58 Appendix A .......................................................................................................................................................... 63 4 List of Figures Figure 1. Location and population size of Windsor and Essex County municipalities, 2016 ....................................... 16 Figure 2. Projected population change in Windsor and Essex County, 2019-2041. .................................................... 17 Figure 3. Projected change in population structure in Windsor and Essex County, 2019-2041. ................................ 17 Figure 4. Mean temperature historical and projections 1950 to 2080 in the City of Windsor ................................... 19 Figure 5. Median number of days with temperatures above 30oC in the City of Windsor, 1950 to 2080 .................. 20 Figure 6. Age-standardized rates of heat-related emergency department visits in Windsor and Essex County and Ontario, 2009-2018 ..................................................................................................................................................... 22 Figure 7. Average heat-related emergency department visits in Windsor and Essex County by sex and age-group, 2009-2018 .................................................................................................................................................................... 22 Figure 8. Minimum temperature historical and projections 1950 to 2080 in the City of Windsor ............................. 24 Figure 9. Age-standardized cold-related emergency department visits in Windsor and Essex County and Ontario, 2009-2018 ...................................................................................................................................................................