School of Industrial and Information Engineering Master of Science in Management Engineering Beyond the Retail Apocalypse: data-driven modelling based on an econometric analysis of industry's drivers and trends Supervisor: Prof. Alessandro Perego Tutors: Ing. Valentina Pontiggia Dott. Elisabetta Puglielli Master Thesis of: Lidia Giulia Mazzesi 927659 Mattia Oneto 913371 Academic Year 2019/2020 1 2 Acknowledgements It’s not even a year since we started this dissertation, but the world seems a completely different place now. Nobody could have predicted what happened, and we certainly would have never imagined writing our thesis in such a troubled historic period. The wounds of Covid-19 will not be easy to heal. In our small, sometimes we had to face problems and difficult moments; however, mutual support and encouragement were fundamental. We would like to express our sincere gratitude to our tutors, Ing. Valentina Pontiggia and Dott. Elisabetta Puglielli, whose expertise and competences were invaluable in formulating the research questions and methodology. They steered us in the right path, and they were always ready to help whenever we had questions or doubts about our work. Moreover, we appreciated being involved in the activities of the Osservatorio Innovazione Digitale nel Retail and Osservatorio eCommerce B2C research team, which assisted us in gathering the necessary data. We are also grateful to Dott. Giorgia Sali, which was so kind in supporting us with Statistics and Econometry. We would also like to thank our supervisor, prof. Alessandro Perego, who is one of the minds behind the wonderful project of Osservatori Digital Innovation. A special thanks goes to our loved ones, which always cheered, supported and believed in us through our academic journey. Finally, we would like to thank each other for these months of dedication, mutual encouragement and laughs. It won’t be easy to say goodbye to this collaboration. These pages that you are going to read may seem a bit cold, full of math and charts. Nevertheless, the fil rouge connecting all the dots are the individuals. Customer centricity, after all, is all about putting people before everything else. Thank you, Lidia and Mattia 3 Table of Contents ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ............................................................................................................................................... 3 ABSTRACT (ENGLISH VERSION) ............................................................................................................................... 9 ABSTRACT (VERSIONE ITALIANA)........................................................................................................................... 9 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY..................................................................................................................................... 1 RESEARCH INTRODUCTION................................................................................................................................... 1 OBJECTIVES & RESEARCH QUESTIONS................................................................................................................. 1 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY ................................................................................................................................. 2 RESEARCH FINDINGS & CONCLUSIONS ................................................................................................................ 8 2 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................................................. 15 3 THE SCIENTIFIC LITERATURE REVIEW ................................................................................................... 17 METHODOLOGY ................................................................................................................................................. 18 3.1.1 Scope of the analysis .............................................................................................................................. 18 3.1.2 Scientific Literature Process .................................................................................................................. 18 LITERATURE ANALYSIS ...................................................................................................................................... 20 3.2.1 Focus ...................................................................................................................................................... 23 3.2.2 Methodology ........................................................................................................................................... 27 3.2.3 Market dimensions: Nationality, Sector, Retail Size .............................................................................. 29 EXOGENOUS FACTORS ....................................................................................................................................... 33 3.3.1 Digital..................................................................................................................................................... 33 3.3.2 Macroeconomic ...................................................................................................................................... 35 3.3.3 Competition ............................................................................................................................................ 37 3.3.4 Commercial Distribution........................................................................................................................ 40 3.3.5 Synergies ................................................................................................................................................ 41 3.3.6 Customer-Based ..................................................................................................................................... 42 ENDOGENOUS FACTORS ..................................................................................................................................... 46 3.4.1 Products ................................................................................................................................................. 46 3.4.2 HR-Based ............................................................................................................................................... 47 3.4.3 Strategic ................................................................................................................................................. 50 3.4.4 Technology-based................................................................................................................................... 51 IMPACTS ............................................................................................................................................................. 52 3.5.1 Quantitative Impacts .............................................................................................................................. 53 3.5.2 Qualitative Impacts ................................................................................................................................ 55 3.5.3 Value Chain (organizational, physical store, channel mix) ................................................................... 56 SCIENTIFIC LITERATURE WRAP-UP.................................................................................................................... 67 4 THE NON-SCIENTIFIC LITERATURE REVIEW......................................................................................... 68 LITERATURE ANALYSIS ...................................................................................................................................... 68 EXOGENOUS FACTORS ....................................................................................................................................... 71 ENDOGENOUS FACTORS ..................................................................................................................................... 75 IMPACTS ............................................................................................................................................................. 76 NON-SCIENTIFIC LITERATURE OUTCOMES......................................................................................................... 82 5 GAP IDENTIFICATION ..................................................................................................................................... 82 6 DATA GATHERING ........................................................................................................................................... 84 METHODOLOGY ................................................................................................................................................. 84 6.1.1 Countries ................................................................................................................................................ 84 6.1.2 Sectors .................................................................................................................................................... 85 6.1.3 Retailers ................................................................................................................................................. 87 EXOGENOUS FACTORS ......................................................................................................................................