Country Risk and Vulnerability Assessment MALI MAY 2017 ECOWAS COMMISSION COMMISSION DE LA CEDEAO COMMISSÃO DA CEDEAO Country Risk and Vulnerability Assessment: Mali | 1 DISCLAIMER: The views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States Government. Cover photo by JM, accessed via Flickr (https://www.flickr.com/photos/phase3/). Reproduced under CC BY 2.0. Table of Contents Acronyms and Abbreviations ...........................................................................................................................................4 Message from the President of the ECOWAS Commission .........................................................................................6 Statement from the Vice President of the ECOWAS Commission ..............................................................................7 Preface ...............................................................................................................................................................................8 Executive Summary ..........................................................................................................................................................9 Introduction ..................................................................................................................................................................... 11 Research Process ...................................................................................................................................................... 11 Terminology and Conceptual Definitions ................................................................................................................ 13 Literature Review ....................................................................................................................................................... 14 Research Questions .................................................................................................................................................. 15 Description of the Sample ........................................................................................................................................ 16 Data Analysis .............................................................................................................................................................. 18 Scope and Limitations of the Study ........................................................................................................................ 18 Country Background ...................................................................................................................................................... 20 National-Level Vulnerabilities, Risks and Resiliencies ............................................................................................. 22 Population and Demographics (Most Vulnerable Pillar) ...................................................................................... 25 Security (Second Most Vulnerable Pillar) ............................................................................................................... 26 Politics and Governance (Third Most Vulnerable Pillar) ....................................................................................... 28 Economics and Resources (Fourth Most Vulnerable Pillar)................................................................................. 29 Rule of Law (Least Vulnerable Pillar) ...................................................................................................................... 31 External Factors ......................................................................................................................................................... 32 Gender Considerations ............................................................................................................................................. 33 Sub-National Level Vulnerabilities, Risks and Resilience Factors: Observations by Region .............................. 36 Bamako ....................................................................................................................................................................... 36 Mopti Region............................................................................................................................................................... 38 Gao Region ................................................................................................................................................................. 41 Kidal Region................................................................................................................................................................ 43 Timbuktu Region ........................................................................................................................................................ 45 Conclusion and Recommendations ............................................................................................................................ 47 Appendix A: Data Sample.............................................................................................................................................. 49 Appendix B: Vulnerability Index .................................................................................................................................... 53 Appendix C: Additional References.............................................................................................................................. 55 Appendix D: Matrix of Vulnerabilities, Risks, Resilience Factors, and Recommendations by Human Security Pillar ................................................................................................................................................................................. 56 Country Risk and Vulnerability Assessment: Mali | 3 Acronyms and Abbreviations ACLED Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project AfDB African Development Bank AQIM Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb CPIA World Bank Country Policy and Institutional Assessment CRA Conflict Risk Assessment CRVA Country Risk and Vulnerability Assessment DDR Disarmament, Demobilization and Reintegration DPA ECOWAS Directorate of Political Affairs DPKRS ECOWAS Directorate of Peacekeeping and Regional Security ECOWARN ECOWAS Early Warning and Response Network ECOWAS Economic Community of West African States ECPF ECOWAS Conflict Prevention Framework EWD ECOWAS Directorate of Early Warning FGD Focus Group Discussion GBV Gender-Based Violence GDP Gross Domestic Product GSDRC Governance and Social Development Resource Centre ICC International Criminal Court IMF International Monetary Fund IncReps ECOWARN’s Incident Reports KII Key Informant Interview MINUSMA United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali MNLA National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad MUJAO Movement for the Unity and Jihad in West Africa NDP National Development Plan NZAID New Zealand Agency for International Development RASALAO Réseau d’Action sur les Armes Légères REWARD Reacting to Early Warning and Response Data in West Africa RPM Rally for Mali SitReps ECOWARN Situation Reports SNA Stakeholder Network Analysis SSR Security Sector Reform UMEOA West Africa Economy and Monetary Union UN United Nations UNDP United Nations Development Programme UNOM United Nations Office in Mali USAID United States Agency for International Development WANEP West African Network for Peacebuilding ACLED Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project AfDB African Development Bank AQIM Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb CPIA World Bank Country Policy and Institutional Assessment CRA Conflict Risk Assessment Country Risk and Vulnerability Assessment: Mali | 4 CRVA Country Risk and Vulnerability Assessment DDR Disarmament, Demobilization and Reintegration DPA ECOWAS Directorate of Political Affairs DPKRS ECOWAS Directorate of Peacekeeping and Regional Security ECOWARN ECOWAS Early Warning and Response Network ECOWAS Economic Community of West African States ECPF ECOWAS Conflict Prevention Framework EWD ECOWAS Directorate of Early Warning FGD Focus Group Discussion GBV Gender-Based Violence GDP Gross Domestic Product GSDRC Governance and Social Development Resource Centre ICC International Criminal Court IMF International Monetary Fund IncReps ECOWARN’s Incident Reports KII Key Informant Interview NDP National Development Plan NZAID New Zealand Agency for International Development RASALAO Réseau d’Action sur les Armes Légères REWARD Reacting to Early Warning and Response Data in West Africa SitReps ECOWARN Situation Reports SNA Stakeholder Network Analysis SSR Security Sector Reform UMEOA West Africa Economy and Monetary Union UN United Nations UNDP United Nations Development Programme UNOCI United Nations Operation in Côte d’Ivoire USAID United States Agency for International Development WANEP West African Network for Peacebuilding Country Risk and Vulnerability Assessment: Mali | 5 Message from the President of the ECOWAS Commission The 15 Member-States of the ECOWAS Community represent a thriving region of the world, with a population of approximately 366 million and a rich human and topographical diversity. From the coastline to the mountain peaks of Fouta Djallon, across the Sahara and the mangroves of the Niger Delta, ECOWAS is home to diverse families, communities, and nations. Over the