Evaluating the impact of alcohol minimum unit pricing in Scotland: Observational study of small retailers A study conducted on behalf of NHS Health Scotland (now Public Health Scotland) as part of the wider Monitoring and Evaluating Scotland’s Alcohol Strategy (MESAS) evaluation of minimum unit pricing. Martine Stead Nathan Critchlow Douglas Eadie Niamh Fitzgerald Kathryn Angus Richard Purves Jennifer McKell Anne Marie MacKintosh Heather Mitchell Colin Sumpter, University of Stirling Colin Angus, University of Sheffield Contents Acknowledgements .................................................................................................... 6 Declaration of interests ............................................................................................... 6 List of acronyms and key terms .................................................................................. 8 Executive summary .................................................................................................. 10 Introduction ........................................................................................................ 10 The aim of this study .......................................................................................... 10 What we did ....................................................................................................... 11 Summary of the three work packages................................................................ 12 What we found ................................................................................................... 13 Other findings .................................................................................................... 20 Conclusions ....................................................................................................... 21 1. Introduction .......................................................................................................... 24 1.1 About this study ........................................................................................... 24 1.2 Aim and research questions ........................................................................ 24 2. Methodology ......................................................................................................... 25 2.1 Overall study design .................................................................................... 25 2.2 What is meant by small retailers? ................................................................ 27 2.3 When were data collected? .......................................................................... 27 2.4 Overview of each work package .................................................................. 27 2.4.1 Work package one: Electronic Point of Sale data (EPoS) ............................... 27 2.4.2 Work package two: Retailer audit .................................................................... 28 2.4.3 Work package three: Analysis of the retail trade press ................................... 29 2.4.4 The five ‘case study’ products ......................................................................... 29 2.5 Ethical approval ........................................................................................... 30 3. Electronic point of sale data ................................................................................. 31 3.1 Methods ....................................................................................................... 31 3.1.1 Design ............................................................................................................. 31 3.1.2 Design and observation periods ...................................................................... 31 3.1.3 Retailer sample ............................................................................................... 32 3.1.4 Product (Unique Product Code) sample .......................................................... 36 3.1.5 Approach to multipack UPCs sold as single containers .................................. 38 3.1.6 Fifty product groups and five case studies examined in detail ........................ 45 3.1.7 Measures ........................................................................................................ 47 3.1.8 Analysis ........................................................................................................... 51 3.2 Average number of UPCs sold, at least once, by each retailer .................... 52 3.3 Proportion of multipacks sold as separate containers .................................. 58 1 3.4 Proportion of retailers selling multipack UPCs as separate containers ........ 62 3.5 Trends in average container size (ml) .......................................................... 67 3.6 Trends in average product strength (ABV) ................................................... 72 3.7 Trends in number of alcohol units in aggregate product .............................. 79 3.8 Trends in nominal average sales price-per-unit ........................................... 85 3.9 Year-on-year changes in the price-per-unit distribution ............................... 91 3.10 Pricing in line with Minimum Unit Pricing ................................................... 93 3.11 Changes in the price differential among 50 tracked products .................... 96 3.12 Summary ................................................................................................. 102 3.12.1 Trends in the product range offered to consumers ...................................... 102 3.12.2 Product characteristics ................................................................................ 103 3.12.3 Pricing ......................................................................................................... 104 4. Retailer audit ...................................................................................................... 107 4.1 Methods ..................................................................................................... 107 4.1.1 Overall design ............................................................................................... 107 4.1.2 Sample of stores and recruitment.................................................................. 107 4.1.3 Data collection ............................................................................................... 109 4.1.4 Data analysis ................................................................................................. 111 4.2 Retailer characteristics ............................................................................... 112 4.3 Retailers’ understanding of and attitudes towards MUP ............................ 118 4.3.1 Understanding of MUP .................................................................................. 118 4.3.2 Attitudes towards MUP .................................................................................. 120 4.4 Implementation and compliance ................................................................ 122 4.4.1 Implementation .............................................................................................. 122 4.4.2 Information and support ................................................................................ 126 4.4.3 Compliance ................................................................................................... 129 4.5 Retailers’ perceptions of the impact of MUP on sales and profits .............. 132 4.5.1 Retailers’ perceptions of the impact of MUP on alcohol sales ....................... 132 4.5.2 Retailers’ perceptions of the impact of MUP on profits from alcohol sales .... 135 4.5.3 Retailers’ perceptions of ability to compete with supermarkets after MUP implementation ....................................................................................................... 137 4.6 Retailers’ alcohol product range before and after MUP implementation .... 138 4.6.1 Overview ................................................................................................. 139 4.6.2 Beers ............................................................................................................. 142 4.6.3 Ciders ............................................................................................................ 145 4.6.4 Fortified wines ............................................................................................... 150 4.6.5 Perries ........................................................................................................... 151 4.6.6 RTDs ............................................................................................................. 152 2 4.6.7 Spirits ............................................................................................................ 157 4.6.8 Wines ............................................................................................................ 159 4.7 Alcohol promotional activities before and after MUP implementation ........ 161 4.7.1 Observational audit ....................................................................................... 161 4.7.2 Retailer interviews ......................................................................................... 165 4.8 Summary ................................................................................................... 170 5. Retail trade press analysis ................................................................................. 173 5.1 Methods ....................................................................................................