Thursday, February 24, 2000 ! Volume 6, Number 23 Page 1 of 8 High probability of The a Gore/Bayh ticket Howey !"#$%&'(")*&""#+#),(-&'.)!-(/)&/)%0$1#% By BRIAN A. HOWEY in Indianapolis and MARK SCHOEFF JR.. in Washington There was one memorable night in August 1996, at Political Chicago, during the first Democratic National Convention there since the bloody one in ‘68. This was the night of Evan Bayh’s keynote address - his formal ascension to the national stage. The buzz in the crowd was the breaking news of Dick Report Morris’s cavorting with a toe-tickling prostitute. There were two other towering figures elbowing, glaring and seeking a The Howey Political Report is published by NewsLink Inc. Founded in 1994, The Howey Political Report is lengthy bask in the limelight: Hillary Clinton and Vice an independent, non-partisan newsletter analyzing the President Al Gore. Both spoke at length during the minimal political process in Indiana. network prime time coverage. Bayh proteges anxiously and Brian A. Howey, publisher quietly seethed at the infringement on Bayh’s airtime. Some of his allies wondered if the vice president and the first lady Mark Schoeff Jr., Washington writer weren’t keeping the young governor in his place. Certainly Jack E. Howey, editor the ‘72 fiasco when George McGovern gave his acceptance The Howey Political Report Office: 317-254-1533 speech in the wee hours of the morning was a present PO Box 40265 Fax: 317-254-2405 thought as the Bayh aides waited in the hallways, taking fre- Indianapolis, IN 46240-0265 [email protected] quent peeks at their wristwatches. www.howeypolitics.com Evan Bayh began delivering his keynote address just Washington office: 202-775-3242 minutes before the 11 o’clock news on the Eastern Seaboard, and many markets stayed with the speech. It wasn’t a great Business Office: 317-254-0535. Pager: 317-320-2722 speech - though shorter than Bill Clinton’s bomb in ‘88. The Daytime number: 317-254-2400, Ext. 273 fact that Bayh was giving this speech, however, was an Subscriptions: $250 annually via e-mail or establishment nod at a potential legacy. fax. Call 317-254-1533. In evaluating the unfolding circumstances of the 2000 presidential race, and after talking to key insiders, HPR is © 2000, The Howey Political Report. All rights forecasting a strong probability that Bayh will join the reserved. Photocopying, Internet forwarding, faxing or reproducing in any form, in whole or in part, is a viola- Democratic ticket as the vice presidential nominee, thus cre- tion of federal law and is strictly prohibited without consent of the publisher. Continued on page 2 Ticker Tape: McIntosh hits BMV p. 2 “One of the things you get with a lopsided HPR Interview: Gov. O’Bannon p. 4 district is that the winners never feel threat- Horse Race: Phipps endorses Pence; ened and the losers always feel disenfran- Pool, Thompson back Griffiths; chised. That doesn’t help overall voter Sen. Lugar targets food, fuel; turnout...”- Republican Chairman John Sweezy, Kellems tapes Hill’s ‘phantom on the 6th CD, to the Indianapolis Star campaign HQ’ p. 7-8 Thursday, February 24, 2000 Page 2 of 8 relative outsider (to contrast Bush’s logi- Gore/Bayh, from page 1 cal attack on Gore as the consummate ating an ironic reunion of that weirdly insider). His geography would give him audacious night in Chicago, and com- an advantage over other short list pletely reframing the Indiana political Democrats: Sen. Joe Lieberman of environment. The chances of a Gore/Bayh Connecticut, Energy Sec. Bill Richardson, McCAIN: DON’T FEAR THIS ticket as a marquee feature just above the or Sen. Diane Feinstein of California. CAMPAIGN: U.S. Sen. John historic Hillary Clinton-Guiliani Senate ! Gender: Due to the traditional McCain’s stunning victories race in New York makes great sense. Here GOP sag with female voters, Bush might in Michigan and Arizona brought an emphatic plea to is how we calculate this Republicans. McCain por- rather bold deduction: trayed his crusade as one of ! Electoral College: a “Reagan conservative, Do the math. Democratic protector of the unborn, a strategists believe Gore will tax cutter.” McCain declar- carry New York, California, ed, “I am Al Gore’s worst Pennsylvania and the nightmare. I will beat Al Northeast. George W. Bush Gore like a drum.” Indiana’s will carry Texas, Florida and presidential primary comes most of the South, the inter- on May 2. mountain West and the Great be inclined to select Elizabeth Dole, who LUGAR ON VEEP RADAR: Plains. What is up for grabs is the Great Sen. Evan Bayh's Hoosier Midwest: The biggest plums being Illinois made her peace with him prior to New colleague, Republican (22), Michigan (18) and Ohio (21), for a Hampshire. Many Democratic observers Senator Richard Lugar, is combined total of 61 EC votes. Add other don’t believe that will be a Gore priority. being mentioned as a possi- probable battleground states in comple- ! Battle of Congress: Again, the ble vice presidential choice mentary media markets - Kentucky (8), fulcrum for control of the U.S. House lies for Texas Gov. George W. Missouri (11) and, yes, Indiana (12) with in the Ohio Valley with key races in Ohio, Bush, if he can stave off a favorite son on the ticket - and that Kentucky, Illinois and Indiana’s 8th and Sen. John McCain after his number swells to 92 votes. The balance of 9th CDs. With only six net seats between stunning loss in Michigan the Democrats and big power, Evan Bayh Tuesday. "I wouldn't be a bit the 2000 election teeters on a Great surprised to see Lugar on Midwest fulcrum. Evan Bayh emerges can make a reasonable case that his emer- the short list because he from the heart of it all. gence on the national ticket could offset complements Bush," said ! Reforming Governors: We Sen. Richard Lugar’s popularity in Ind- Charlie Cook of the Cook believe there is a strong potential that iana and perhaps nudge the 8th and 9th Political Report. "Bush Gov. Bush will select a fellow reformer CDs into the Democratic column. The fact needs someone with heavy governor as a running mate. A McCain that U.S. Rep. Baron Hill and 8th CD duty substantive Washing- nomination would bring unpredictable challengers Paul Perry and John Hamilton ton experience and some- choices. Bush defends his status as an out- have displayed potent fundraising power one who exudes adulthood. side reformer and has expressed great will make the Bayh scenario as part of the That describes Lugar." congressional picture very appealing. Ron Faucheux of Campaign admiration for his brethren governors. & Elections magazine, also Based on the Electoral College profile, ! Shadow of Dan Quayle. Evan ranks Lugar highly. "If Bush three Republicans immediately jump to Bayh is no Dan Quayle, and enough peo- tries to get someone to the forefront: Govs. John Engler of ple know it. compensates for his lack of Michigan (now tainted), Tommy ! Vetting: Evan Bayh is squeaky foreign policy experience, Thompson of Wisconsin and Sen. George clean. National reporters wouldn’t be call- Lugar would be a good Voinovich of Ohio. Bush is said to also ing Indiana newsrooms on the day of the choice. He would be on the greatly admire Pennsylvania Gov. Tom veep selection bellowing, “Got any dirt on short list." Ridge. Bayh would be presented as a ...?” as they did in 1988 with Quayle. Democratic counterweight - a conserva- ! The Intangible. This is where Continued on page 3 tive, reformer (welfare) governor, and a Joe Andrew comes in. The Democratic Page 3 of 8 Thursday, February 24, 2000 National chair was a Bayh appointee in the best interest of winning. My job is when he emerged in Indiana, then whip- to make sure we have a strategy to win, ped out of his orbit and on to the national no matter who the presidential nominee is, stage a year ago. Andrew has the ear of let alone the vice presidential nominee." both President Clinton and Vice President Most observers agree that Bayh is Gore. He is the essential conduit who will on a short list with Richardson and Fein- McINTOSH HITS BMV: vividly and enthusiastically sell to Gore stein. "There's no homerun choice out Republican gubernatorial Bayh’s aforementioned attributes. Plus, there for Gore," said Charlie Cook, editor candidate castigated Gov. Bayh’s ascension helps Andrew with of the Cook Political Report. "If he starts Frank O’Bannon over “mis- things near and dear to his heart: It bol- looking for a good, solid double, then management” of the Bureau sters Gov. Frank O’Bannon and Baron Evan Bayh will fit the bill. I can't think of of Motor Vehicles on Tues- day. McIntosh said the BMV Hill, nips the national emergence of David anyone who has a better chance of getting has had six months of tur- McIntosh in the bud, tips U.S. Rep. John the nod." moil, and wasn’t prepared Hostettler to defeat while helping the "The first thing Gore's going to for the Y2K problems. He party regain control of the House, and have to do is decide whether he's going to advocated putting BMV sticks it to old nemesis Mike McDaniel - put a woman on the ticket," said Ron branches in banks and car all back home in Indiana. Faucheux, editor of Campaign & Elec- dealerships. “Anybody who Of course, it was Dick Morris who tions. "If you take the possibility of a has waited in line know it’s ignited the Bayh/veep talk on CNN’s woman off the table, then Evan Bayh time to make changes,” said Larry King Live late last year.