What Contributed to Sinn Féin’s surge in popularity during the 2020 general election campaign in Ireland? By Bethany Langham A thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for MA in Journalism & Media Communications (QQI) Faculty of Journalism & Media Communications Griffith College Dublin August 2020 I hereby certify that this material, which I now submit for assessment on the programme of study leading to the award of the MA in Journalism & Media Communications, is my own; based on my personal study and/or research, and that I have acknowledged all material and sources used in its preparation. I also certify that I have not copied in part or whole or otherwise plagiarised the work of anyone else, including other students. Signed: Dated: 30/07/20 i Abstract The campaign leading up to the general election on 8 February 2020 in Ireland was eventful and its result unanticipated. Ireland’s usual bipartisan voting trend was broken with the Sinn Féin party winning the most first preference votes for the first time since August 1923. Throughout the twentieth century, the Sinn Féin party mostly lay dormant. It began its continuous contesting of elections in 1987. However, ten years later in the last general election of the twentieth century, Sinn Féin’s support had only risen to 2.5%. Since then, the party has slowly gone from strength to strength with its percentage of first-preference votes breaking the threshold of double digits in February 2016 with 13.85%. This thesis examines the potential reasons for the leap of over 10% in first- preference votes in the space of one general election seen by Sinn Féin. It looks at the social media tactics of the party in comparison to those (or lack thereof) of the Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil parties. It examines the messaging of these three parties with reference to each party’s manifesto. Since the economic crash of 2008, Ireland has seen itself in the grips of health and housing crises. The effects of this on the Irish electorate will also be explored with reference to the strong front bench of the Sinn Féin party. ii Acknowledgements I would like to thank my supervisor Maurice Coakley for his guidance and patience throughout these last few months. I would like to extend a big thank you to the Journalism Faculty of Griffith College Dublin for the support we have received over the last two years. To those I interviewed, I would like to sincerely thank you for giving me your time. Your expertise proved invaluable. Also a big thank you to Socialbakers for providing me the opportunity to use their platform for the purpose of this thesis. Finally I wish to thank my friends and family for their support and patience throughout the last two years. Words of encouragement here and there made it easier to soldier on. A special thanks to my mother for listening to me rattle on about my studies while still maintaining the appearance of interest. iii Table of Contents TABLE OF CONTENTS List of Figures .............................................................................................................................................. vi List of Tables ............................................................................................................................................... vii Chapter I – Introduction ............................................................................................... 1 Chapter II – Literature Review ..................................................................................... 6 1.1 Historical context: ............................................................................................................ 6 1.2 Irish General election trends, 1918-2020: ..................................................................... 8 1.3 Recent ‘populist’ trends in Europe: ............................................................................. 10 1.4 The Podemos Party: ....................................................................................................... 10 1.5 The Syriza Party: ............................................................................................................. 13 1.7 Conclusion: ..................................................................................................................... 17 Chapter III – Methodology .......................................................................................... 19 1.1 Overview: ......................................................................................................................... 19 1.2 Mixed methods research: .............................................................................................. 19 1.2.1 Quantitative research: ..................................................................................................................... 20 1.2.2 Qualitative research: ....................................................................................................................... 23 1.3 Preparation: ..................................................................................................................... 24 1.4 Ethical considerations: .................................................................................................. 25 1.5 Conclusion ....................................................................................................................... 26 Chapter IV – Analysis ................................................................................................. 27 1.1 Election results: .............................................................................................................. 27 1.2 Ipsos MRBI political opinion polls: .............................................................................. 28 1.3 Results: Social media: ................................................................................................... 29 1.3.1 Sinn Féin: ......................................................................................................................................... 29 1.3.2 Mary Lou McDonald: ....................................................................................................................... 32 1.3.3 Fine Gael: ......................................................................................................................................... 33 1.3.4 Leo Varadkar: .................................................................................................................................. 35 1.3.5 Fianna Fáil: ....................................................................................................................................... 36 1.3.6 Micheál Martin: ................................................................................................................................ 37 1.4 Manifestos: ...................................................................................................................... 38 1.4.1 Lexical trends ................................................................................................................................... 38 1.4.2 Health and housing policies ........................................................................................................... 41 1.5 Discussion: A series of fortunate events for Sinn Féin: .......................................... 46 1.6 Sinn Féin’s front bench and key policy-areas: .......................................................... 48 iv 1.7 Social Media tactics: ...................................................................................................... 52 1.8 Time for change: ............................................................................................................. 54 Chapter V – Conclusion ............................................................................................. 58 Chapter VI - Appendices ............................................................................................ 64 Chapter VII - Bibliography .......................................................................................... 87 v LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: % of Dáil seats obtained by each party/ alliance, 2020……………………………….1 Figure 2: % of first preference votes from 1987-2020…………………………………………..10 Figure 3: % of first preference votes in 2016 and 2010…………………………………………30 Figure 4: % of positive versus negative Facebook reactions- Sinn Féin……………………...34 Figure 5: page likes and interactions of Martin, Varadkar and McDonald…………………….36 Figure 6: % of positive versus negative Facebook reactions- Fine Gael……………………..37 Figure 7: % of positive versus negative Facebook reactions- Sinn Féin……………………...40 Figure 8: party Instagram followers and interactions……………………………………………41 vi LIST OF TABLES Table 1: Sinn Féin Facebook data 04/08/19- 08/02/20…………………………………………60 Table 1.1: Sinn Féin positive/ negative Facebook reactions 04/08/19- 08/02/20…………….60 Table 1.2: Sinn Féin Facebook data 24/11/18- 24/05/19……………………………………….61 Table 1.3: Sinn Féin positive/ negative Facebook reactions 24/11/18- 24/05/19…………….61 Table 1.4: Fine Gael Facebook data 04/08/19- 08/02/20……………………………………….62 Table 1.5: Fine Gael positive/ negative Facebook reactions 04/08/19- 08/02/20……………62 Table 1.6: Fianna Fáil Facebook data 04/08/19- 08/02/2004/08/19- 08/02/20……………….63 Table 1.7: Fianna Fáil positive/ negative Facebook reactions 04/08/19- 08/02/20…………..63 Table 2: Mary Lou McDonald Facebook data 04/08/19- 08/02/20…………………………….64 Table 2.1: Mary Lou McDonald positive/ negative Facebook reactions 04/08/19- 08/02/20..64