OUT OF THE SHADOWS: SUVERSION AND COUNTERCULTURE IN THE DIGITAL AGE by Christopher E. Whyte A Dissertation Submitted to the Graduate Faculty of George Mason University in Partial Fulfillment of The Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy Political Science Committee: _______________________________________ A. Trevor Thrall, Chair _______________________________________ Edward Rhodes _______________________________________ Eric McGlinchey _______________________________________ Ming Wan, Program Director _______________________________________ Mark J. Rozell, Dean Date: __________________________________ Summer Semester 2017 George Mason University Fairfax, VA Out of the Shadows: Subversion and Counterculture in the Digital Age A Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy at George Mason University by Christopher Whyte Master of Arts George Mason University, 2012 Bachelor of Arts College of William & Mary, 2010 Director: A. Trevor Thrall, Associate Professor Schar School of Policy and Government Summer Semester 2017 George Mason University Fairfax, VA Copyright 2017 Christopher Whyte All Rights Reserved ii Dedication This dissertation project is dedicated to my wonderful wife Susan, whose unconditional love and support has been at the heart of every success I’ve experienced in the process of earning my doctorate. iii Acknowledgements A great number of people deserve recognition for making the process of writing my dissertation easier, more fulfilling and more likely to put me productively on the right path in the early stages of my career. Among so many others, I owe great thanks to Trevor Thrall for his many wise words as my advisor and the chair of my dissertation committee. Trevor has not only regularly gone out of his way to help me in my degree-seeking and job-finding efforts; he has masterfully tread the line between devoted mentor and friend. Under his tutelage, my scholarly efforts have qualitatively improved by several degrees of magnitude. I must now only apologize for the incredible number of words I have forced him to read over the years of my degree. I would like to thank family for their love and support over the past several years. In particular, I would like to acknowledge the support of my parents in all things. Thank you for being there to hear my rant about inane project details and thanks for reassuring me whenever I doubted what I was doing. Likewise, I would like to thank my sister Emma for sharing her own experiences and offering feedback in a way that few siblings are equipped to do. You have been an invaluable friend and guide. I would likewise be remiss if I did not thank my closest friends for their tireless efforts to take my mind off of issues – mundane and unusual alike – related to my degree. Colligan, Kyle, let’s face it – you guys carried me. Finally, I owe all my successes of the past few years and, at times, my sanity to my immediate family – my canine sidekick Willie and my wonderful wife Susan. Willie, you’re a good boy. Susan, I love you and I like you. iv Table of Contents Page List of Tables…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………vii List of Figures……………………………………………………………………………………………………………….viii Abstract…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………ix 1. Introduction……………………………………………………………………………………………………………….1 Information Technologies and Subversion………………………………………………………………………7 The Puzzle: Keeping One Foot in the Shadows…………………………………………………………..…12 Objectives of the Dissertation…………………………………………………………..…………………………18 Significance of the Project………………………………………………………..……………………..…………21 Outline of the Dissertation………………………..……………………………………………………………..…22 2. What is Subversion?.....……………………………………………….…………………………………………….29 Why Studying Subversion in the Digital Age is Important……………………………………………..56 The Global Public Sphere in the Information Age………………………………………….……………..59 3. Subversion in the Digital Age……………………………………….…………………………………………….80 The Puzzle: What We Might Expect of Subversives Using ICT………….…………………………..80 The Puzzle: Keeping One Foot in the Shadows…………………….………..……………………………..86 Explaining Subversion Among Activists………………………..……………………………………………..99 Towards a Theory of Subversion in the Digital Age……..………………………………………………111 4. Keeping One Foot in the Shadows: A Quantitative Analysis…………………………..…………….150 A Theory of Subversive Digital Activism………………………………………………………..…………..150 Quantitative Evidence………………………………………………………………………………………………161 The Determinants of Subversive Group Decision-Making…………………………………….………..164 Analysis and Discussion of Results………………………………………………………………………..…..194 What Quantitative Testing Tells Us About ICT-Enabled Subversion……………………………..200 5. Case Study Overview.....……………………………………………….………………………………………….210 Case Study Results: The Argument………………………………………………………………….………..211 Comparing Cases Across Countries.………………………………………………………………….………..216 6. Germany’s Far Right: The National Democratic Party of Germany……………………………….237 The NPD and Digital Antagonism……………………………………………………………………………..239 History of the NPD…………………………………………………………………………………………..……..241 Case Analysis: Competing Explanations for Digital Antagonism………..………………………….244 7. Germany’s Far Left: Die Linke………………………………………………………………………………….259 Die Linke and Digital Antagonism……………………………………………………………………………..260 History of Die Linke..………………………………………………………………………………………..……..261 Case Analysis: Competing Explanations for Digital Antagonism………..………………………….265 8. Spiritualism in China: The Case of Falun Gong………………………….……………………………….278 Falun Gong and Digital Antagonism……………..…………………………………………………………..280 History of Falun Gong.……………………………………………………………………………………..……..281 Case Analysis: Competing Explanations for Digital Antagonism………..………………………….286 9. Nativism and Separatism in Hong Kong: Civic Passion………………………..……………………….309 v Civic Passion and Digital Antagonism………………………………………………………………………..311 History of Civic Passion..…………………………………………………………………………………..……..312 Case Analysis: Competing Explanations for Digital Antagonism………..…………………………..315 10. Cybersects: Protestant Cultism in China……………………………………………………………..…….326 Eastern Lightning and Digital Antagonism..………………………………………………………………..327 History of Eastern Lightning.……………………………………………………………………………..……..329 Case Analysis: Competing Explanations for Digital Antagonism………..…………………………..332 11. Case Study Conclusion: Analysis & Further Steps……….………………………………………..…….345 Corroborating Evidence………………………………….……….……….……….……….…………………….350 Access & Opposition: Does Country-Level Variation Matter?………………………………………..363 Directions for Future Inquiry……………………………………………………………………..……………..369 12. Conclusion.....……………………………………………….…………………….………………………………….375 Blurred Lines: Criminality & the Digital Age………………………….…………………………………..378 Implications for Scholarship & Analysis………………………………………………….…………………..380 Implications for Policy……………………………………………………………………………………………..385 Conclusion………………………………………………………………………………………………………………386 List of References………………………….…………………………………………………………………………388 vi List of Tables Table Page 1.1 Evidence of Digital Antagonism…………..…………………………………………………………………….16 3.1 Evidence of Digital Antagonism……………………………………………………………..………………….90 3.2 Variables in GDADS………………………………..…………………………………………………………….120 3.3 Framing & Function Variables in GDADS………………………………………………………………...121 3.4 Non-GDADS Variables Coded………………………………………………………………………………….127 4.1 Binomial Logit Results……………………………………………………………..…………………………….165 4.2 OLS Logit Results………………………………………………………………………………………………….172 4.3 IEO Binomial Logit Results…………………………………………………………………………………….182 4.4 Diagnostic Models………………………………………………………………………………………………….193 5.1 Summary Expectations & Findings for Case Studies…………………………………………….…….213 5.2 Documented Cases of Counterrevolutionary Organizations in China…………………………….229 5.3 Documented Cases of Counterrevolutionary Organizations in China by Named Groups….230 11.1 Summary Expectations & Findings for Case Studies…………………………………………….…...347 vii List of Figures Figure Page 1.1 Competing Emphasis on ICT Strategies…………..……..………………………………………………….14 1.2 Variation on the Dependent Variable……………………………………………………..………………….17 2.1 Three Elements of Subversive Campaigns…………………………………………………………………..54 2.2 Graphic Overview of Subversive Groups Under Study……………………………………..…………...57 2.3 Subversive Group Use of ICT for Antagonism…………………………………………………………….73 3.1 Spectrum of Possible ICT Strategies…………………………………………..……………………………..84 3.2 Expected vs. Actual ICT Strategies……………………………………………………………………..…….87 3.3 Visualization of Variation on the Dependent Variable..……………………………………….……….91 3.4 Number of Subversive Groups by Region………………………………………………………….……….125 3.5 Structural Patterns for Organizational Formats…………………………………………………..…….139 4.1 Subversive Group Use of ICT for Antagonism……………………………………………..…………….175 4.2 Scmitt Analysis Stack……………………………………………………………………………………….…….177 4.3 Scmitt Analysis Stack Categorical Breakdown…………….……………………………….…………….178 4.4 Subversive Group Use of ICT for Antagonism by Evidence of Structural Grievances……...186 4.5 Subversive Group Use of ICT for Antagonism by Grievance & Prosecutability.……..……...187 4.6 Subversive Group Use of ICT for Antagonism by Grievance & Sponsorship…………..……...188 4.7 Subversive Group Use of ICT for Antagonism by Grievance & Target Type..………..……...189 4.8 Incidence of DDoS by Grievance & Severity………………..…………………………………………….191 viii Abstract Out of the Shadows: Subversion and Counterculture in the Digital Age Christopher Whyte, Ph.D. George Mason University,