the national bureau of asian research 19 asia policy a s i a p january 2015 o 19 l roundtable i Asia’s Multipolar Nuclear Future c Christopher P. Twomey, Rajesh Basrur, Benjamin Schreer, y Noboru Yamaguchi, Kang Choi, P.K. Singh, Aaron L. Friedberg january 2015 january essays and articles The Development of Japanese Security Policy Bhubhindar Singh Russia’s Asia Pivot Jeffrey Mankoff Indian Foreign Policy Responds to the U.S. Pivot Harsh V. Pant and Yogesh Joshi South Korea’s Search for Nuclear Sovereignty Toby Dalton and Alexandra Francis the national bureau of asian research 1414 nethe 42nd national street, bureau suite 300 book review roundtable seattofl asiane, wa researchshington 98105 http://www.nbr.org http://www.asiapolicy.nbr.orghttp://asiapolicy.nbr.org Recent Books on Civil-Military Relations in Pakistan asia policy • http://asiapolicy.nbr.org • a peer-reviewed journal devoted to bridging the gap between academic research and policymaking on issues related to the Asia-Pacific editors C. Christine Fair and Mark W. Frazier editors Georgetown University The New School Jessica Keough managing editor Joshua Ziemkowski copy and style editor Hannah Haegeland, Craig Scanlan, and McKenzie Templeton copyeditors editorial advisory committee C. Christine Fair Bhubhindar Singh Georgetown University S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies Mark Frazier Michael Wills The New School The National Bureau of Asian Research editorial board Muthiah Alagappa Mark Katz Kenneth Pyle (co-chairman) Institute of Strategic and George Mason University University of Washington International Studies Malaysia David Lampton Lawrence Reardon Michael Armacost Johns Hopkins University University of New Hampshire Stanford University Nicholas Lardy Robert Ross Richard Bush Peterson Institute for Boston College Brookings Institution International Economics Richard Samuels Steve Chan Chae-Jin Lee Massachusetts Institute University of Colorado, Boulder Claremont McKenna College of Technology Thomas Christensen Steven Lewis Andrew Scobell Princeton University Rice University RAND Corporation Eliot Cohen Cheng Li David Shambaugh Johns Hopkins University Brookings Institution George Washington University Nicholas Eberstadt Kenneth Lieberthal Susan Shirk American Enterprise Institute Brookings Institution University of California, San Diego Elizabeth Economy Kimberly Marten Council on Foreign Relations Barnard College Sheldon Simon Arizona State University Richard Ellings (co-chairman) Barrett McCormick The National Bureau of Marquette University Robert Sutter Asian Research George Washington University Rajan Menon Aaron Friedberg City College of New York, Richard Suttmeier Princeton University City University of New York University of Oregon Paul Godwin Vali Nasr Michael Swaine National War College (ret.) Johns Hopkins University Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Michael Green Marcus Noland Center for Strategic and Peterson Institute for See Seng Tan International Studies International Economics S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies Stephen Hanson Margaret Pearson College of William and Mary University of Maryland Ashley Tellis Carnegie Endowment for Harry Harding Minxin Pei International Peace University of Virginia Claremont McKenna College Robert Wade Robert Hefner T.J. Pempel London School of Economics Boston University University of California, Berkeley and Political Science David Kang Dwight Perkins Vincent Wang University of Southern California Harvard University University of Richmond asia policy number 19 • january 2015 Contents u roundtable u Approaching Critical Mass: Asia’s Multipolar Nuclear Future introduction: dangerous dynamism in asia’s nuclear future . 2 Christopher P. Twomey nuclear stability and polarity in post–cold war asia . 5 Rajesh Basrur china’s development of a more secure nuclear second-strike capability: implications for chinese behavior and u .s . extended deterrence . 14 Benjamin Schreer the utility of nuclear and conventional forces in the second nuclear age: a japanese military perspective . 21 Noboru Yamaguchi the north korean nuclear problem: twenty years of crisis . 28 Kang Choi the india-pakistan nuclear dyad and regional nuclear dynamics . 37 P.K. Singh the evolving nuclear order: implications for proliferation, arms racing, and stability . 45 Aaron L. Friedberg u special essay u the development of japanese security policy: a long-term defensive strategy . 49 Bhubhindar Singh This essay examines the developments in Japanese security policy that have been undertaken by the Abe government since December 2012. u articles u russia’s asia pivot: confrontation or cooperation? . 65 Jeffrey Mankoff This article examines the origins and conduct of Russia’s Asia pivot, analyzes the role Asia plays in Russia’s economic development plans, and assesses Russia’s efforts to balance its strategic partnership with China and its ambitions to be a more autonomous player in Asia. indian foreign policy responds to the u .s . pivot . 89 Harsh V. Pant and Yogesh Joshi This article examines India’s foreign policy response to the U.S. pivot toward Asia and investigates New Delhi’s strategy for dealing with the changing balance of power in the region. south korea’s search for nuclear sovereignty . 115 Toby Dalton and Alexandra Francis This article argues that the narrow technical disagreements stalling the renegotiation of the U.S.–South Korea nuclear cooperation agreement mask a far larger and more complicated set of issues and interests that challenge both the future of bilateral nuclear cooperation and the nonproliferation regime. u book review roundtable u Recent Books on Civil-Military Relations in Pakistan Aqil Shah’s The Army and Democracy: Military Politics in Pakistan T.V. Paul’s The Warrior State: Pakistan in the Contemporary World C. Christine Fair’s Fighting to the End: The Pakistan Army’s Way of War getting beyond opacity: new light on pakistan’s enigmatic army . 138 John H. Gill the normative underpinnings of pakistan’s military . 143 Marvin G. Weinbaum the military and pakistan’s political and security disposition . 147 Hasan Askari Rizvi the greedy warrior state . .. 152 Aqil Shah culture or structure? understanding the complexities of pakistan . 158 T.V. Paul pakistan’s army: running and ruining a country . 163 C. Christine Fair author’s response: military influence and the reality of politics in pakistan . 168 Aqil Shah author’s response: the paradoxes of pakistan . 173 T.V. Paul author’s response: the united states needs a new policy toward pakistan . 178 C. Christine Fair asia policy • http://asiapolicy .nbr .org • a peer-reviewed journal devoted to bridging the gap between academic research and policymaking on issues related to the Asia-Pacific guidelines for submission Asia Policy is a peer-reviewed journal devoted to bridging the gap between academic research and policymaking on issues related to the Asia-Pacific. The journal publishes peer-reviewed research articles and policy essays, roundtables on policy-relevant topics and recent publications, and book review essays, as well as other occasional formats. I. General Requirements Asia Policy welcomes the submission of policy-relevant research on important issues in the Asia-Pacific. The journal will consider two main types of submissions for peer review: research articles that present new information, theoretical frameworks, or arguments and draw clear policy implications; and policy essays that provide original, persuasive, and rigorous analysis. Authors or editors interested in having a book considered for review should submit a copy of the book to the managing editor at NBR, 1414 NE 42nd Street, Suite 300, Seattle, Washington 98105. Submissions may be sent to <[email protected]>. Asia Policy requires that all submitted manuscripts have not been previously published in any form, either in part or in whole, and are not currently under consideration by any other organization. All prior use of arguments found in the manuscript—whether for publication in English or any other language—must be properly footnoted at the time of submission. The author should also describe the background of the manuscript upon submission of the first draft, including whether the manuscript or any component parts have been presented at conferences or have appeared online. II. Manuscript Format • The manuscript should be in Times New Roman, 12-point font with 1.5-line spacing. Research articles should range from 8,000 to 12,000 words, and policy essays should range from 4,000 to 6,000 words. • In order to be easily accessible to policymakers, each manuscript must include (1) a Title Page, (2) a one-page Executive Summary, and (3) a concise Introduction according to the requirements listed below. 1) The Title Page should include only the article title, author’s name, a list of five keywords, and a short biographical statement (under 50 words) that lists the author’s e-mail address. 2) To help bridge the policy and academic communities, all research published by NBR must include a one-page Executive Summary of approximately 275 words that includes: • a Topic Statement • the Main Argument • the Policy Implications A sample Executive Summary is provided in Section III below. 3) The Introduction of all NBR publications should not exceed two pages in length and should plainly describe: • the specific question that the paper seeks to answer • the policy importance of the question • the main argument/findings of the paper • Tables and figures should be placed at the end of