DRAFT VERSION IZHEVSK STATE TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY Albert V. Abilov MODELS AND STRATEGIES OF THE REGIONAL INFOCOMMUNICATION COMPLEX DEVELOPMENT 2007 3 621.395 CONTENTS Abbreviations.........................................................................................................6 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................8 1. WORLD TRENDS OF INFOCOM DEVELOPMENT 1.1. XXIst century – a century of information society.......................................10 Albert V. Аbilov 1.2. Trends of development of present-day info-communication tech- А15 Models and strategies of the regional infocommunication complex nologies ...............................................................................................................15 development. – It’s not published yet (Draft version) 1.2.1. Convergence of info-communication technologies..........................15 1.2.2. Trends of network technology development ....................................20 1.2.3. Evolution of terrestrial mobile radiotelephone systems ..................28 1.2.4. Development of Internet and intelligent communication networks........32 1.3. Development of info-communication services ..........................................36 1.4. State-of-the-art and forecast of world infocomm development ...............38 1.4.1. General alalysis of the state-of-the-art and trends ............................38 1.4.2. Telephone service trends....................................................................41 1.4.3. Cellular mobile service trends ...........................................................45 1.4.4. Personal computer development trends ............................................49 1.4.5. Internet service trends.........................................................................51 1.5. Formation of a new model of info-communication space.........................52 This monograph consoder models, trends and ways of the regional in- focommunication complex development. The regional infocommunica- 2. PRESENT-DAY SITUATION AND WAYS OF INFOCOM tion complex is considered as socio-techical system from system analysis DEVELOPMENT IN THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION point of view. The performance evaluation of the infocom indicators both 2.1. General description of communication and informatization by counties and Ruissian’s regions is conduted. The state of infocommu- 2.1.1. The branch reform ..............................................................................55 nication complecs in Udmurt Republic (Russia) is analysed. This work re- 2.1.2. The branch state in the world reference system................................60 searches the impact of sosio-economic factors on the ICT development 2.1.3. Categories of communication services and the market structure.........67 and give forecasts for further development of the regional infocommuni- 2.2. State and development of basic telecommunication services ...................72 cation complex. Models and strategies are considered as well. 2.2.1. Unified telecommunication network of the Russian Federation...........72 2.2.2. International, long-distance and local telephony ..............................75 2.2.3. Data communication ..........................................................................80 2.2.5. Mobile radiotelephony .......................................................................82 2.2.4. TV- and radio broadcasting ...............................................................88 2.3. The branch organization structure...............................................................91 2.4. Prospects of the branch development .........................................................96 3. PRESENT-DAY STATE OF INFOCOMMUNICATION NET- © Albert V. Abilov, 2007 WORKS IN THE UDMURT REPUBLIC 3.1. Place of the Udmurt Republic in infocommunication space of the Russian Federation ..............................................................................................99 3.2. Structure of infocommunication complex................................................109 3.3. Analysis of key segments of the market of communication service 4 Contents 5 3.3.1. Structure of the market of communication service and tariff 6.2. Analysis of trends and forecasts of the infocommunication complex policy ...........................................................................................................120 in Udmurt Republic (Russia).................................................................................259 3.3.2. International and long-distance telephony ......................................127 6.2.1. The bacical rules and trends of development...................................259 3.3.3. Local telephony ................................................................................131 6.2.2. Forecasting indicators of infocommunication complex devel- 3.3.4. Data communication ........................................................................146 opment till 2012 .................................................................................263 3.3.5. Mobile radiotelephony .....................................................................150 6.2.3. Trends of the customer preferencies.................................................268 3.3.6. Wire sound broadcasting..................................................................163 6.3. Marcovian models for infocommunication complex development ..........272 3.3.7. Television- and radio broadcasting and cable television ...............165 6.4. Research the charachteristics of infocommunication complex in 3.4. Technological and special-purpose communication networks ...............168 Udmurt Republic ..........................................................................................284 3.5. Consumer categories and analysis of demand for communication 6.4.1. Criterial system for level of the infocom infrastructure evaluation ......284 services...............................................................................................................171 6.4.2. The theoretical explanation for impact factors on the infocom 3.6. State of educational, scientific and industrial resources ..........................184 complex development........................................................................294 6.4.3. Impact of economics on the infocom complex in the regions ........297 4. EVALUATION OF EXTERNAL FACTORS IMPACT ON THE 6.5. Place of the infocommunication complex of Udmurt Republic in WORLD INFOCOM INDICATORS Russia......................................................................................................................303 4.1. Statistical influence of external factors........................................................191 4.1.1. Impact GDP factor on infocom indicators .......................................191 7. INFORMATION-ANALYTICAL SYSTEM OF REGIONAL 4.1.2. Impact Education Level factor on infocom indicators ....................197 INFOCOMMUNICATION COMPLEX 4.2. Dynamical influence of external factors......................................................208 7.1. Tools design for information-analytical system ......................................320 4.2.1. Impact GDP factor on infocom indicators .......................................208 7.2. Example of the soft realization..................................................................331 4.2.2. Impact Education Level factor on infocom indicators ....................211 8. STRATEGY OF INFOCOMMUNICATION COMPLEX DEVEL- OPMENT IN THE UDMURT REPUBLIC (RUSSIA) 5. FORECAST OF THE WORLD AND RUSSIANS INFOCOM 8.1. Strategic tasks of development..................................................................336 INDICATORS 8.2. Development of telecommunication networks.........................................343 5.1. Forecast methods for infocom indicators and their application.................214 8.2.1. Transport communication networks................................................346 5.2. Rule for saturation level of indicator definition..........................................217 8.2.2. Public telephone networks ...............................................................350 5.3. Impact of external factors evaluation on the saturation of main tele 8.2.3. Public land mobile networks............................................................361 phone lines indicator ...............................................................................................220 8.2.4. Data communication ........................................................................367 5.4. Forecast method design for main telephone lines indicator and its 8.2.5. TV- and sound broadcasting............................................................374 application for Russia ...................................................................................227 8.2.6. Technological communication networks........................................377 5.4.1. Aggregated influation of external factors on the saturation 8.3. Development of educational, scientific and industrial resources of level of main telephone lines indicator.............................................227 the branch...........................................................................................................381 5.4.2. Forecast of main telephone lines indicator for Russia till 2012 year ......229 8.4. Basic measures and stages of conception realization...............................385 6. MODELS OF THE REGIONAL INFOCOMMUNICATION