Workshop Report Adaptation to Pest Risks under Future Climates in Africa 28–30 May 2014 Kampala, Uganda RTB Workshop Report Published by the CGIAR Research Program on Roots, Tubers and Bananas (RTB) Correct citation: Kroschel J., Mujica N., Carhuapoma P., Juarez H., Okonya J., Le Ru B., and Hanna R. 2014. Adaptation to Pest Risks under future Climates in Africa. Lima (Peru). CGIAR Research Program on Roots, Tubers and Bananas (RTB). RTB Workshop Report. Available online at: www.rtb.cgiar.org Contact: RTB Program Management Unit – International Potato Center - Apartado 1558, Lima 12, Peru. Tel: +5113493094; Email: [email protected] © International Potato Center on behalf of RTB Creative Commons License This Workshop Report is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial- ShareAlike 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/. The workshop was conducted with the active participation of scientists from the following CGIAR centers as well as from international organizations and national agricultural research systems: Workshop reports aim to disseminate interim climate change, agriculture and food security research and practices and stimulate feedback from the scientific community. DISCLAIMER: This workshop report has been prepared as an output under the RTB program and has not been peer reviewed. Any opinions stated herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the policies or opinions of RTB, donor agencies, or partners. All images remain the sole property of their source and may not be used for any purpose without written permission of the source. Supported by: 2 3 Table of Contents ACRONYMS…………………………………………………………...…...……………………...……4 ABSTRACT………………………………………………………………..…………………...……….5 ACKNOWLEDGMENT..…...……………………………………………………..……………...………5 1. WORKSHOP BACKGROUND……………………………....……………………..…………...…….6 2. WORKSHOP OBJECTIVES…………………………………………………....……..………………6 3. METHODOLOGY…………………………………………………..…………..…………..…………6 4. WORKSHOP RESULTS………………………………………………………….....…………..…....7 4.1 IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON INSECT PESTS…………………………..…..………….……..7 4.2 FRAMEWORK FOR PRA UNDER FUTURE CLIMATES……………….....…………...……………..8 4.3 THE INSECT LIFE CYCLE MODELING (ILCYM) SOFTWARE AS SUB-FRAMEWORK FOR ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON INSECT PESTS IN PRA………..……….…..8 Characteristics of ILCYM……………………….………………………………………………..9 4.4 PEST DISTRIBUTION AND RISK ATLAS FOR AFRICA……………………………….…..………..10 Potential impact of climate change on major pests in target crops….…………..…………10 4.5 COUNTRY SYNOPSIS………………………………………………………………………………10 4.6 ADAPTATION PLANNING FOR IPM IN POTATO, MAIZE, AND CASSAVA... …………….…………13 4.6.1 Capacity building..…………………………….……………………………….……………...13 4.6.2 Regional information networks.……….………..……………………………………………13 4.6.3 Publication of the Pest Risk Atlas.…………………………………………………………..13 4.6.4 Future research needs.………………….……………………………………………………13 4.6.5 Crop-specific IPM adaptation.………….………….…………………………………………13 4.7 ADAPTATION TO PEST RISKS UNDER FUTURE CLIMATES IN AFRICA: RECOMMENDATIONS FOR AN ACTION PLAN.…………….……………………………………………………………...14 5. REFERENCES.…...………………………………………………………………………………….15 6. ANNEXES.…………………….…………………………………………………….…………..…..16 Annex 1. Workshop Program.……………………………………………………………........16 Annex 2. List of Participants.……………………………………………………….……….....19 Annex 3. Table of contents of the “Pest Distribution and Risk Atlas for Africa: Potential global and regional distribution and abundance of agricultural and horticultural pests and associated biocontrol agents under current and future climates”.…………..………..20 Annex 4. Abstracts of workshop presentations on the impact of climate change on the potential range expansion and abundance of pests in selected crops…………..……… 22 Annex 5. Country synopsis of important pests……………………………………………..29 4 ACRONYMS BMZ German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development CCAFS CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security CGIAR Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research CIP International Potato Center CRP CGIAR Research Programs CRP-RTB CGIAR Research Program on Roots, Tubers and Bananas DLCO-EA Desert Locust Control Organization for Eastern Africa ERI Establishment Risk Index FAO Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations GI Generation Index GIS Geographic Information System ICIPE International Centre of Insect Physiology and Ecology IITA International Institute of Tropical Agriculture ILCYM Insect Life Cycle Modeling (software) IPPC International Plant Protection Convention NARO National Agricultural Research Organization NARS National Agriculture Research Systems NPPO National Plant Protection Organizations PRA Pest Risk Analysis RAB Rwanda Agricultural Board 5 ABSTRACT A collaborative project, Predicting climate change induced vulnerability of African agricultural systems to major insect pests through advanced insect phenology modeling, and decision aid development for adaptation planning, funded by the German Federal Ministry of Cooperation and Development (BMZ), was implemented from 2010 to 2014 by the International Potato Center (CIP), Lima, Peru, with its partners at the International Centre of Insect Physiology and Ecology, Kenya, and the International Institute of Tropical Agriculture, Nigeria. The project further developed and extended the use and application of the free and open-source Insect Life Cycle Modeling (ILCYM) software. ILYCM was used to develop temperature-dependent pest phenology models for 19 important insect pests of agricultural and horticultural crops in Africa and to apply these models in Geographic Information Systems to understand better the impact of current and future climates on pest establishment, abundance, and spread potential. The objectives of the workshop were to inform stakeholders in plant health, plant quarantine, and pest management about future pest risks on global, regional, and local scales in Africa and to use this information for crop-specific adaptation planning and to define priorities in pest management. Climate change will aggravate the already serious challenges to food security and agricultural sustainability in Africa due to increasing pest problems, which was demonstrated for major pests of potato (potato tuber moth, Phthorimaea operculella; Guatemalan potato tuber moth, Tecia solanivora; Serpentine leafminer, Liriomyza huidobrensis; vegetable leafminer, Liriomyza sativae; Greenhouse whitefly, Trialeurodes vaporarium); sweetpotato (Sweetpotato whitefly, Bemisia tabaci); maize (Spotted stemborer, Chilo partellus; Maize stalk borer, Busseola fusca; African pink borer, Sesamia calamistis); cassava (Cassava mealybug, Phenacoccus manihoti; Cassava green mite, Mononychellus tanajoa); and fruits (Tephritid fruit fly, Bactrocera invadens). Owing to higher temperatures in future, pest incidence might also potentially decrease in certain regions. Detailed Pest Risk Analysis (PRA) results will be published in the forthcoming Pest Distribution and Risk Atlas for Africa: Potential global and regional distribution and abundance of agricultural and horticultural pests and associated biocontrol agents under current and future climates. Participants discussed crop-specific adaptation plans and proposed five major recommendations for an action plan: (1) phenology modeling and pest risk mapping, including interactions with pests’ natural enemies under current and future climates become important part of PRA implemented in the framework of International Plant Protection Convention; (2) establish a regional platform and network on pest risks under future climates, and create links and interactions with other climate change initiatives; (3) research needs identified during the workshop should be addressed in order to expand models to other major pests and to improve predictions of risks; (4) the capacity of National Plant Protection Organizations needs to be improved to adequately incorporate pest risk mapping results into adaptation planning to manage future pest risks on regional and country level; and (5) advocate for increased awareness of future pest risks under climate change and promote the inclusion of pest risk adaptation planning at country level under the relevant ministries. KEY WORDS: Pest risk analysis, pest modeling, climate change, adaptation planning, integrated pest management ACKNOWLEDGMENT We gratefully acknowledge the financial support of BMZ for the project “Predicting climate change induced vulnerability of African agricultural systems to major insect pests through advanced insect phenology modeling and decision aid development for adaptation planning” in which the framework of this stakeholder workshop was conducted. 6 1. Workshop Background Societies in Africa are highly dependent on agriculture, an activity traditionally vulnerable to unpredictable changes in climatic conditions. Any increase in temperature, caused by climate change, coupled with a decline in rainfall, will have direct and indirect drastic effects on crop production and hence food security. This will exacerbate existing vulnerabilities of the resource- constrained farmers who depend on agriculture for a living. On average, 30–50% of the yield losses in agricultural crops are caused by pests despite the application of pesticides to control them. Climate, especially temperature, has a strong and direct influence on insect pest population development and growth. A rise in temperature, due to climate change, may both