INFORMATION TO USERS This manuscript bas been reproduced trom the microfilm master. UMI tiIms the text directly ftom the original or copy submiUed. Thus, some thesis and dissertation copies are in typewriter face, while others may be trom any type ofcomputer printer. The quality ofthis reproduction is depeadeat upon the quality ofthe copy submitted. Broken or indistinct print, colored or poor quality illustrations and photographs, print bleedthrough, substandard margins, and improper alignment cao adversely affect reproduction. In the unlikely event that the author did not send UMI a complete manuscript and there are missing pages, these will he noted. Also, if unauthorized copyright material had to be' removed, a note will indicate the deletion. Oversize materials (e.g., maps, drawings, charts) are reproduced by sectioning the original, beginning at the upper left-band corner and continuing ftom left to right in equal sections with small overlaps. Each original is also photographed in one exposure and is included in reduced form at the back ofthe book. Photographs included in the original manuscript have been reproduced xerographically in this copy. Higher quality 6" x 9" black and white photographic prints are available for any photographs or illustrations appearing in this copy for an additional charge. Contact UMI directly ta order. UMI A Bell cl HoweU IDformation Company 300 North Zecb Road, ADn Arbor MI 48106-1346 USA 313n61-4700 8OOIS21.()6()() 1· "Imperial Sunset: Grand Strategies ofHegemons in Relative Decline." Steven Daniel Breton Department ofPolitical Science "McGill University, Montreal" August, 1996 A thesis submitted to the Faculty of Graduate Studies and Research in partial fulfillment ofthe requirements ofthe degree ofMasters ofArt in Political Science. © Steven D. Breton, 1996 National Ubrary Bibfiothèque nationale 1+1 of Canada du Canada Acquisitions and Acquisitions et Bibliographie Services services bibliographiques 395 Wellington Street 395. rue Wellington Ottawa ON K1A 0N4 Ottawa ON K1 A 0N4 Canada canada The author has granted a non­ L'auteur a accordé une licence non exclusive licence allowing the exclusive permettant à la National Library ofCanada to Bibliothèque nationale du Canada de reproduce, loan, distribute or sell reproduire, prêter, distribuer ou copies ofthis thesis in microform, vendre des copies de cette thèse sous paper or electronic formats. la forme de microfiche/film, de reproduction sur papier ou sur format électronique. The author retains ownership ofthe L'auteur conserve la propriété du copyright in this thesis. Neither the droit d'auteur qui protège cette thèse. thesis nor substantial extracts from it Ni la thèse ni des extraits substantiels may be printed or otherwise de celle-ci ne doivent être imprimés reproduced without the author's ou autrement reproduits sans son permission. autorisation. Q-612-29532-X Canad~ ABSTRACT ....Imperial Sunset: Grand Strategies ofHegemons in Relative Decline.'~ This thesis investigates the economic and military policies hegemons pursue while experiencing relative decline. Based upon the rising costs ofleadership associated with hegemony~ this thesis establishes that both systemic and domestic environments equally influence the hegemon's policy-making. Furthennore, the Paper contends that hegemons do practice strategic planning during relative decline~ in an effort to adjust its commitments and resources to the environment. Relative success or failure in maintaining the international system and thus adjusting for decline depends on how decision-makers compensate for two prevailing variables: threat ofchallengers and availability ofallies. This study offers a predictive theoretical model for interpreting the dynamics ofgrand strategy formulation, compensating for the influences ofthe domestic environment three historical case studies~ the Dutch Republic, Britain and the United States~ test the accuracy and validity ofthe model. This thesis finds that periods ofstrong leadership, void ofthrea~ while augmented by external balancing best support a hegemon's relative decline. '''Le Coucher du Soleil Impérial: Grandes Stratégies des Hegemons en Déclin Relatif" Cette thèse enquête les politiques economiques et militaires que les hegemons poursuivent pendant le déclin relatif Selon les coûts augmentants de l'autorité associé avec l'hegemonie, la thèse établit que les environs systèmiques et domestiques influence également la ligne de conduite de l'hegemon. De plus~ la thèse soutent que les hegemons exercicent des projets stratégiques pendant le décli~ essayant d'ajuster leur engagements et ressources a l'environ. Lè sucees ou l'insuccès relatifen maintenant le système intemational~ et ainsi l'ajustement pour le déclin depénd du manière en le quel les chefs compensent deux variables prédominants: la menace des adversaires et la présence des allies. Cet étude offie un modèle théorique pour interprèter les dynamiques des formules des grandes stratégies, compensant por les influences de l'environ domestique. Trois études historiques~ le république hollandais, la Grande­ Bretagne et les États-Unis mets à l'épreuve l'exactitude et la validité du modèle. La thèse trouve que les périodes de direction ferme~ dénué de menace., et augmenter par réquilibrage extérieur atténue le déclin relatifde l'hegemon. ( ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This M.A thesis has been both a rewarding and traumatic experience. Over the years ofconstant research, theoretical developmen~ and more research, 1combed virtually every library between McGill University and the University ofArizona. My search for the answers to the riddles ofrelative decline eventually 100 me back ta the teachings ofmy thesis advisor, Professor Mark Brawley. His lectures, advise and publication, Liberal Leadership, a1ways kept my focus on the basics ofhegemonic theory. Where Professor Brawley indulges in economic theory, 1 concentrate on the military contributions to hegemony. The combination ofboth views provide for a more robust model and sounder findings. Thank-you Mark for your guidance. The V.S. Army surprisingly makes a significant contribution to the foUowing research. My skills as a Military Intelligence Officer directly correlate to my abilities as a student. 1 utilize the same analytical tools and techniques for conducting intelligence preparation ofthe battlefield (lPB) that 1use on studying British strategy in the 19th century. While my profession directly applies both analysis and conjecture to threat situations, 1develop a new, more profound appreciation for the tireless work ofthe scholar. McGill has made me a better intelligence officer while the Army made me, 1 hope, a better scholar. 1need to express my deepest appreciation to a plethora ofindividuals, so 1 will limit the references. Thank-you to the McGill Department ofPolitical Science, especially Ms. Susan Bartlett, Ms. Helen Wilicka and Professor Manfredi, for supporting this seemingly endless odyssey called "Breton's thesis". Thanks to my forever supportive parents, sister, and friends. Thanks to the IOth Mountain Division (Light Infantry) for a1ways deploying me to the most remote locations and for forever finding new and exciting ways to manage my off-time. Finally to my loving vâfe - always supportive and caring. 1love you. PS. To Lieutenant-General Raoul Cedras, fonner dictator ofHaiti, now in exile in Panama. Sir, thank-you for the wisdom for allowing myselfand the IOth Mountain Division to peacefully enter your island nation on 19 September 1994. Your decision permitted us to accomplish a politically demanding mission with great speed, safety, and effeetiveness. 1 round my time spent in your country both rewarding and educational. Your decision reduced the time 1 served in Haïti while preventing me from asking McGill University for another extension to my thesis. ( TABLE OF CONTENTS l 1. Introduction 1) The International System and Its Maintenance 5 2) Interests and the International System 9 3) Domestic Environment 11 a) Liberal Regime Type 12 b) Economie Interests 14 c) Public Support 15 4) International Environment 15 a) Threat ofa Challenger 16 b) Availability ofAllies 17 5) Maintaining the International System 17 a) Economie Trade Policy 20 b) Military Strategy 20 c) Military Force Poliey 20 d) Commitment Poliey 21 6) Grand Strategies-Theoretical Model 21 II. Dutch Republic, 1672-17205 23 1) Status ofHegemony 23 2) Environment 26 a) Liberal Regime Type 26 26 c b) Prevailing Economie and Political Interests l 3) Grand Strategy 28 a) Phase 1: 1672-1673 French Invasion ofDutch (Threat and No Allies) 31 b) Phase II: 1673-1678 War with France (Threat and Allies) 33 c) Phase ID: 1678-1688 Fragile Peace (No Threat and Allies) 35 d) Phase IV: 1688-1697 Glorious Revolution (Threat and Allies) 37 e) Phase V: 1697-1702 Partition Treaties (Threat and Allies) 39 f) Phase VI: 1702-1713 War ofSpanish Succession (Threat and Allies) 41 g) Phase VII: 1713-1720s Post War Europe (No Threat and Allies) 45 4) Conclusion 47 m. Great Britain 1889-1932 52 1) Status ofHegemony 52 2) Environment 54 a) Liberal Regime Type 54 b) Prevailing Economie and Political Interests 55 3) Grand Strategy 55 a) Phase 1: 1889-1904 Splendid Isolation (Threat and No Allies) 57 b) Phase il: 1904-1914 Preparing for War ( (Threat and Allies) 62 c) Phase ID: 1914-1918 World War l l (Threat and Allies) 67 d) Phase IV: 1919-1932 Post War Peace (No Threat No Allies) 71 4) Conclusion 76 IV. United States 1971-Present 79 1) Phase 1 1971-1989 Cold War (Threat and Allies) 80 2) Phase fi 1990-Present