December 2019 South Asian Association of Regional Cooperation (SAARC) Energy Centre (SEC) Islamabad, Pakistan Table of Contents TABLE OF FIGURES ................................................................................................................................ iv LIST OF TABLES ...................................................................................................................................... v LIST OF ACRONYMS............................................................................................................................... vi ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ....................................................................................................................... viii FOREWORD ........................................................................................................................................... ix EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ...........................................................................................................................x 1 Introduction ....................................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Objectives and Scope of the study .............................................................................................. 1 1.2 Battery Electric Vehicles .............................................................................................................. 1 1.2.1 Electric Vehicles – Types ...................................................................................................... 1 1.2.2 BEVs – Global Adoption and Diffusion Trends ...................................................................... 2 1.2.3 Revamping the Supply Chain: BEV Industry Insights ............................................................ 4 1.2.4 Building Sustainable BEV Supply Chain ................................................................................ 6 1.3 Industry Assessment Framework and Methodology ................................................................... 8 1.3.1 Assessment Framework and Indicators................................................................................ 8 1.3.2 Survey design & sampling .................................................................................................. 10 1.3.3 Execution ........................................................................................................................... 11 2. Analysis of Global BEV Supply Industry ........................................................................................... 14 2.1 Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) .............................................................................. 14 2.1.1 Opportunities and Challenges ............................................................................................ 14 2.1.2 OEMs Future Targets.......................................................................................................... 15 2.2 EV Batteries ............................................................................................................................... 15 2.2.1 Battery Technologies.......................................................................................................... 16 2.2.2 Battery Supply Chain .......................................................................................................... 17 2.2.3 Battery Cost and Production .............................................................................................. 18 2.2.4 Global Production Capacity ................................................................................................ 22 2.2.5 Battery Concerns ................................................................................................................ 22 2.3 Other BEV Components (Motor, Transmission, battery management system) ........................ 24 2.3.1 Electric Motor .................................................................................................................... 24 2.4 Innovative technologies ............................................................................................................ 26 3 Competitiveness of Global BEV Supply Industry .............................................................................. 28 3.1 USA: Supply Chain Status and Strengths ................................................................................... 28 3.1.1 OEMs .................................................................................................................................. 28 3.1.2 Batteries ............................................................................................................................. 28 i 3.1.3 Other BEV Components ..................................................................................................... 30 3.1.4 Policy and Regulation ......................................................................................................... 30 3.1.5 Research and Development ............................................................................................... 32 3.1.6 Key Takeaways ................................................................................................................... 34 3.2 China: BEV Supply Chain Status and Strength ........................................................................... 34 3.2.1 OEMs .................................................................................................................................. 35 3.2.2 Battery ............................................................................................................................... 36 3.2.3 Policy and Regulation ......................................................................................................... 37 3.2.4 Other BEV Components ..................................................................................................... 39 3.2.5 Research and Development ............................................................................................... 40 3.2.6 Key Takeaways ................................................................................................................... 40 3.3 Norway: BEV Supply Chain Status and Strengths ...................................................................... 41 3.3.1 OEMs .................................................................................................................................. 41 3.3.2 Battery ............................................................................................................................... 42 3.3.3 Other BEV Components ..................................................................................................... 42 3.3.4 Policy and Regulation ......................................................................................................... 42 3.3.5 Research and Development ............................................................................................... 43 3.3.6 Key Takeaways ................................................................................................................... 43 4 Automotive Industry in Pakistan ...................................................................................................... 45 4.1 Overview ................................................................................................................................... 45 4.2 The Economic and Business Case for BEVs ................................................................................ 47 4.2.1 Commercial Viability of BEVs in Pakistan’s market ............................................................ 48 4.2.2 Poor Demand Outlook ....................................................................................................... 48 5 Analysis of BEV Supply Industry in Pakistan ..................................................................................... 51 5.1 OEMS ........................................................................................................................................ 51 5.2 Battery ...................................................................................................................................... 57 5.3 Other BEV Components ............................................................................................................ 58 5.4 Policy and Regulation ................................................................................................................ 58 5.5 Research and Development ...................................................................................................... 61 6 Discussion on Competitiveness of BEV Industry in Pakistan ............................................................ 63 6.1 Readiness Status of the BEV Supply Industry ............................................................................ 63 6.1.1 Technological Context ........................................................................................................ 64 6.1.2 Organizational Context ...................................................................................................... 66 6.1.3 Environmental Context ...................................................................................................... 67 6.2 Recommendations .................................................................................................................... 69 6.2.1 Government policy & regulations .....................................................................................