North Auckland Line Ministry of Transport Project reference: NAL Business Case Project number: 60580963 Quality information Prepared by Checked by Verified by Approved by (Lead author) Marinus LaRooij Graeme Sharman John Marker Graeme Doherty Graeme Doherty Principal Consultant - Manager – Partner (Deloitte) Manager - Civil Manager - Civil Transport Government and Infrastructure, Infrastructure, External Affairs Wellington Wellington Revision History Revision Revision date Details Name Position 1 14.12.18 Working draft for peer review Glen Cooper Principal Planner 2 19.12.18 Updated working draft for Glen Cooper Principal Planner proofing 3 21.12.18 Updated working draft for Glen Cooper Principal Planner verification 4 21.12.18 Updated working draft for Glen Cooper Principal Planner MoT internal review 5 28.02.19 Revised Draft Marinus LaRooij Principal Consultant – Transport 6 14.03.19 Final Review Draft Marinus LaRooij Principal Consultant – Transport 7 27.03.19 Final Draft Marinus LaRooij Principal Consultant – Transport 8 31.03.19 Final Departmental Review Marinus LaRooij Principal Consultant – Transport 9 9.05.19 Public Release (redacted) Marinus LaRooij Principal Consultant – Transport Distribution List # Hard Copies PDF Required Association / Company Name Prepared for: Ministry of Transport i North Auckland Line Ministry of Transport Project reference: NAL Business Case Project number: 60580963 Prepared for: Ministry of Transport PO Box 3175 WELLINGTON 6140 Prepared by: AECOM New Zealand Limited Level 19, 171 Featherston Street Wellington 6011 PO Box 27277 Wellington 6141 T: +64 4 896 6000 F: +64 4 896 6001 aecom.com Co No. 9429032091335 Prepared in association with: Deloitte NZ Ltd Deloitte Centre Levels 12-18 80 Queen Street Auckland, 1010 New Zealand T: +64 9 303 0700 F: +64 9 303 0701 www2.deloitte.com/nz/en AECOM in Australia and New Zealand is certified to ISO9001, ISO14001, AS/NZS4801 and OHSAS18001. 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Prepared for: Ministry of Transport ii North Auckland Line Ministry of Transport Project reference: NAL Business Case Project number: 60580963 Table of Contents Executive Summary ................................................................................................. 12 1. Introduction .................................................................................................... 23 Purpose of business case ..................................................................................................................................... 23 Scope .................................................................................................................................................................... 23 Our approach ........................................................................................................................................................ 24 Report structure .................................................................................................................................................... 25 Stakeholder engagement ...................................................................................................................................... 25 Northland Rail Stakeholder Group ........................................................................................................................ 25 Key stakeholders ................................................................................................................................................... 25 Background ........................................................................................................................................................... 26 The Case for Northland ......................................................................................................................................... 27 2. Strategic case ................................................................................................ 28 Case for Change ................................................................................................................................................... 29 Problem definition (ILM) ........................................................................................................................................ 29 Problem 1: Limited Northland connectivity ............................................................................................................ 29 Problem 2: Poorly integrated Northland transport system ..................................................................................... 30 Problem 3: Current rail network impractical for users ............................................................................................ 31 Problem 4: Under-investment impacting network viability ..................................................................................... 32 Investment objectives ............................................................................................................................................ 33 Benefits of investment (ILM) ................................................................................................................................. 33 Enhancing Northland’s ability to compete and support Auckland growth .............................................................. 33 Problem and benefits matrix (ILM) ........................................................................................................................ 34 High quality transport connections an economic enabler for Northland ................................................................ 35 Alignment to government policy objectives ........................................................................................................... 36 Analysis of the evidence ....................................................................................................................................... 37 Existing environment of infrastructure supply ........................................................................................................ 37 Northland’s strategic freight network ..................................................................................................................... 37 Northland rail network current extent and condition .............................................................................................. 37 State highway network .......................................................................................................................................... 39 Road safety in Northland ....................................................................................................................................... 39 Importance of moving freight ................................................................................................................................. 40 Current state - Northland freight demand .............................................................................................................. 40 Future freight projections ...................................................................................................................................... 41 Introduction – current state forecast ...................................................................................................................... 41 Potential for rail utilisation growth – Freight .......................................................................................................... 41 Modal-choice decision-drivers ............................................................................................................................... 41 Identifying potential freight demand for upgraded rail services in Northland ......................................................... 42 Stakeholder perceptions on Northland rail - summary .......................................................................................... 42 Commodity analysis .............................................................................................................................................. 43 Future potential disruptors and opportunities - Freight .......................................................................................... 44 Heavy vehicle driver availability ............................................................................................................................ 44 Increasing inter-regional travel times .................................................................................................................... 44 Northport’s