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Business Case (Pdf) North Auckland Line Ministry of Transport Project reference: NAL Business Case Project number: 60580963 Quality information Prepared by Checked by Verified by Approved by (Lead author) Marinus LaRooij Graeme Sharman John Marker Graeme Doherty Graeme Doherty Principal Consultant - Manager – Partner (Deloitte) Manager - Civil Manager - Civil Transport Government and Infrastructure, Infrastructure, External Affairs Wellington Wellington Revision History Revision Revision date Details Name Position 1 14.12.18 Working draft for peer review Glen Cooper Principal Planner 2 19.12.18 Updated working draft for Glen Cooper Principal Planner proofing 3 21.12.18 Updated working draft for Glen Cooper Principal Planner verification 4 21.12.18 Updated working draft for Glen Cooper Principal Planner MoT internal review 5 28.02.19 Revised Draft Marinus LaRooij Principal Consultant – Transport 6 14.03.19 Final Review Draft Marinus LaRooij Principal Consultant – Transport 7 27.03.19 Final Draft Marinus LaRooij Principal Consultant – Transport 8 31.03.19 Final Departmental Review Marinus LaRooij Principal Consultant – Transport 9 9.05.19 Public Release (redacted) Marinus LaRooij Principal Consultant – Transport Distribution List # Hard Copies PDF Required Association / Company Name Prepared for: Ministry of Transport i North Auckland Line Ministry of Transport Project reference: NAL Business Case Project number: 60580963 Prepared for: Ministry of Transport PO Box 3175 WELLINGTON 6140 Prepared by: AECOM New Zealand Limited Level 19, 171 Featherston Street Wellington 6011 PO Box 27277 Wellington 6141 T: +64 4 896 6000 F: +64 4 896 6001 aecom.com Co No. 9429032091335 Prepared in association with: Deloitte NZ Ltd Deloitte Centre Levels 12-18 80 Queen Street Auckland, 1010 New Zealand T: +64 9 303 0700 F: +64 9 303 0701 www2.deloitte.com/nz/en AECOM in Australia and New Zealand is certified to ISO9001, ISO14001, AS/NZS4801 and OHSAS18001. Cover photo credit: Whāngārei Harbour, David Wagstaff, 2019 © 2019 AECOM New Zealand Limited. All Rights Reserved. AECOM has prepared this document for the sole use of the Client and for a specific purpose, each as expressly stated in the document. No other party should rely on this document without he prior written consent of AECOM. AECOM undertakes no duty, nor accepts any responsibility, to any third party who may rely upon or use this document. This document has been prepared based on the Client’s description of its requirements and AECOM’s experience, having regard to assumptions that AECOM can reasonably be expected to make in accordance with sound professional principles. AECOM may also have relied upon information provided by the Client and other third parties to prepare this document, some of which may not have been verified. Subject to the above conditions, this document may be transmitted, reproduced or disseminated only in its entirety. Prepared for: Ministry of Transport ii North Auckland Line Ministry of Transport Project reference: NAL Business Case Project number: 60580963 Table of Contents Executive Summary ................................................................................................. 12 1. Introduction .................................................................................................... 23 Purpose of business case ..................................................................................................................................... 23 Scope .................................................................................................................................................................... 23 Our approach ........................................................................................................................................................ 24 Report structure .................................................................................................................................................... 25 Stakeholder engagement ...................................................................................................................................... 25 Northland Rail Stakeholder Group ........................................................................................................................ 25 Key stakeholders ................................................................................................................................................... 25 Background ........................................................................................................................................................... 26 The Case for Northland ......................................................................................................................................... 27 2. Strategic case ................................................................................................ 28 Case for Change ................................................................................................................................................... 29 Problem definition (ILM) ........................................................................................................................................ 29 Problem 1: Limited Northland connectivity ............................................................................................................ 29 Problem 2: Poorly integrated Northland transport system ..................................................................................... 30 Problem 3: Current rail network impractical for users ............................................................................................ 31 Problem 4: Under-investment impacting network viability ..................................................................................... 32 Investment objectives ............................................................................................................................................ 33 Benefits of investment (ILM) ................................................................................................................................. 33 Enhancing Northland’s ability to compete and support Auckland growth .............................................................. 33 Problem and benefits matrix (ILM) ........................................................................................................................ 34 High quality transport connections an economic enabler for Northland ................................................................ 35 Alignment to government policy objectives ........................................................................................................... 36 Analysis of the evidence ....................................................................................................................................... 37 Existing environment of infrastructure supply ........................................................................................................ 37 Northland’s strategic freight network ..................................................................................................................... 37 Northland rail network current extent and condition .............................................................................................. 37 State highway network .......................................................................................................................................... 39 Road safety in Northland ....................................................................................................................................... 39 Importance of moving freight ................................................................................................................................. 40 Current state - Northland freight demand .............................................................................................................. 40 Future freight projections ...................................................................................................................................... 41 Introduction – current state forecast ...................................................................................................................... 41 Potential for rail utilisation growth – Freight .......................................................................................................... 41 Modal-choice decision-drivers ............................................................................................................................... 41 Identifying potential freight demand for upgraded rail services in Northland ......................................................... 42 Stakeholder perceptions on Northland rail - summary .......................................................................................... 42 Commodity analysis .............................................................................................................................................. 43 Future potential disruptors and opportunities - Freight .......................................................................................... 44 Heavy vehicle driver availability ............................................................................................................................ 44 Increasing inter-regional travel times .................................................................................................................... 44 Northport’s
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