THE VERMONT DIFFERENCE: DIRECT DEMOCRACY TO THE IMPACT OF PROGRESSIVE POLITICS by Colleen R. Jackson A thesis submitted to Johns Hopkins University in conformity with the requirements for the degree of the Master of Arts in Government Baltimore, Maryland May, 2021 © 2021 Colleen R. Jackson All Rights Reserved ABSTRACT The Vermont political environment is home to three, frequently lauded, unique attributes that separates it from other states. This thesis investigates why and how Vermont sees such a prevalence in split ticket voting, how the most successful third party in the country, the Vermont Progressive Party, has been able to establish and maintain success in Vermont for the last forty years, and investigates of the current state, successes, failures, and future of direct democracy in Vermont’s town meetings. The thesis then asks whether each of these elements is replicable outside of the Vermont political environment and what the implications are for expansion of these attributes to other states and nationwide. The research uses a range of methodologies: an IVR survey and in-depth follow up interviews for split ticket voters, in-depth interviews of members of the Vermont Progressive Party, and an online survey of Vermont town clerks. This thesis finds that split ticket voters in Vermont point to a number of reasons for splitting their ticket, most prominently, however, it is due to the close connection that Vermonters feel to their political representatives which can transcend party label. The Progressive Party’s success is largely due to Bernie Sanders’ proof of concept when he became mayor of Burlington, VT, in addition to community-building organization techniques, and a legislative environment that does not overly hinder third party candidates and parties. Direct democracy in the form of open and hybrid town meeting in Vermont provides benefits in the form of negotiation, issue-education, and community building. However, lower participation rates and recent events that are pulling towns away from direct democracy indicate an uncertain future for town meeting direct democracy. The research finds that these three aspects of Vermont’s political environment are more complicated and less than the ideal that many academics, pundits, and activists argue for. However, they also present significant positives and it is clear that certain political environments ii could lead to expanding split ticket voting and the presence of successful third parties and ultimately potentially less contentious and more representative democracy to states outside of Vermont and the nation. This Master’s thesis was completed under the direction of Dr. Dorothea Wolfson, Dr. Straus and Dr. Hill. It was read by Lee Drutman and Al From. iii PREFACE I was born in California and have lived in five different U.S. states and three different countries. After moving to Vermont in 2018, I started to learn about and personally experience many of the unique attributes that I investigate in this thesis. I met and talked with split ticket voters, town clerks, and members of the Progressive Party. I bought chickens from our then- Lieutenant Governor. I participated in town meeting day. In choosing what to study for my thesis, I wanted to highlight these fascinating, and often overlooked, aspects of Vermont politics. In so doing, I hope to expand our understanding, not only of Vermont, but of possibilities for the future of our national political system. I hope that my research will be read and considered by both academics and individuals, particularly Vermonters, interested in the fascinating intricacies and possibilities of Vermont’s political environment. I would like to thank my family for their encouragement and help throughout this process. I particularly want to thank my husband, Shannon Jackson, for his encouragement and steadfast support, and my mother, Kathleen Ragan, for the hours of guidance and proof-reading. Thank you also, to: Bill McInturff, Charles Lineweaver, Molly O’Brien, Deirdre Lineweaver, Michelle Jackson, Brad Jackson, Hillary Jackson, and Zachary Benuck. I would not have been able to do this without you. Finally, thank you to Johns Hopkins University, my advisor and the professors who helped me write this thesis. Dr. Dorothea Wolfson, thank you for being an unfailing advocate for me during this process. Thank you, also to Dr. Jacob Straus and Dr. Kathryn Wagner Hill for your help, encouragement, and guidance. Colleen R. Jackson, Burlington Vermont, 5.12.21 iv TABLE OF CONTENTS Abstract……………………………………………………………………………………………ii Preface……………………………………………………………………………………………iv Table of Contents………………………………………………………………………………….v List of Tables……………………………………………………………………………………..vii List of Figures ……………………………………………………………………………………ix Thesis Introduction……………………….………………………………………………………1 Chapter 1: An Investigation of the Theory in Practice: Split-Ticket Voting in Vermont’s 2018 Elections………………………………………………………………………………………….12 Chapter 1: Introduction…………………………………………………………………..12 Chapter 1: Literature Review ……………………………………………………………15 Chapter 1: Methodology………………………………………………………………….24 Chapter 1: Results………………………………………………………………………..28 Chapter 1: Discussion ……………………………………………………………………47 Chapter 1: Conclusion……………………………………………………………………52 Chapter 2: The Reality of Multiparty Politics in America: The Vermont Progressive Party and its forty-years of success…………………………………………………………………………….54 Chapter 2: Introduction…………………………………………………………………..54 Chapter 2: Literature Review…………………………………………………………….55 Chapter 2: Methodology………………………………………………………………….63 Chapter 2: Results………………………………………………………………………..64 Chapter 2: Discussion ……………………………………………………………………85 Chapter 2: Conclusion……………………………………………………………………90 v Chapter 3: The Future of Direct Democracy and Town Meetings in Vermont…………………...93 Chapter 3: Introduction…………………………………………………………………..93 Chapter 3: Literature Review.……………………………………………………………95 Chapter 3: Methodology………………………………………………………………...106 Chapter 3: Results………………………………………………………………………108 Chapter 3: Discussion …………………………………………………………………..146 Chapter 3: Conclusion…………………………………………………………………..152 Thesis Conclusion……………………………………………………………………................154 Appendix A: Vermont Split-Ticket Voter/Democratic Defector Survey Toplines……………...164 Appendix B: Precinct Calculations for Split Ticket Voters……………………………………..187 Appendix C: Progressive Activists and In-Depth Interview Questions…………………………204 Appendix D: Public Opinion Survey Findings on Progressives…………………………………207 Appendix E: Town Clerks Survey Topline……………………………………………………...216 Bibliography……………………………………………………………………………………240 Curriculum Vita………………………………………………………………………………...251 vi LIST OF TABLES Tables in: Chapter 1: An Investigation of the Theory in Practice: Split-Ticket Voting in Vermont’s 2018 Elections Table 1: Addison Precinct Vote Percentages and Absolute Difference Calculations Table 2: In-Depth Interview Priorities for Vermont Coded Open End Responses Table 3: In-Depth Interview Examples of Good Character Language Used to Describe Governor Scott Table 4: In-Depth Interview Reasons Given For Favorability for Governor Scott Coded Open End Responses Table 5: In-Depth Interview Voting for Governor Scott Coded Open End Responses Table 6: In-Depth Interview Reasons for Likely 2020 Governor Scott Vote Coded Open-End Responses Table 7: In-Depth Interview Advise To Potential Democratic Challengers Coded Open End Responses Tables in: Chapter 3: The Successes, Failures, and Future of Direct Democracy and Town Meetings in Vermont Table 8: The Importance of Participation and Negotiation Table 9: Average, Highest and Lowest Turnout by Town Voting System Table 10: Issues Prompting Highest Turnout in Open Town Meetings Only Table 11: Issues Prompting Highest Turnout in Towns with Hybrid System Only Table 12: Issues Prompting Highest Turnout in Towns with Only Australian Ballots Table 13: Issues Being Raised 5-10 Years Ago That Have Risen to State and National Politics vii Table 14: Issues Clerks Believe May Rise to State and National Politics in the Future Table 15: Maximum Number of Registered Ballots Before Australian Ballots Are Needed by Town Meeting Voting System Table 16: Maximum Number of Registered Ballots Before Australian Ballots Are Needed by Clerk Experience Table 17: Greatest Strengths of Open Town Meetings by Town Voting System Table 18: Greatest Strengths of Open Town Meetings by Clerk Experience Table 19: Weaknesses of Open Town Meetings by Town Meeting Voting System Table 20: Weaknesses of Open Town Meetings by Clerk Experience Table 21: Strengths of the Australian Ballot by Town Voting System Table 22: Strengths of the Australian Ballot by Clerk Experience Table 23: Weaknesses of the Australian Ballot by Town Voting System Table 24: Weaknesses of the Australian Ballot by Town Voting System Table 25: Ways in Which Policy Formation Would Be Better or Worse if Open Town Meetings Were Eliminated by Town Meeting Voting System Table 26: Ways in Which Policy Formation Would Be Better or Worse if Open Town Meetings Were Eliminated by Clerk Experience Table 27: Ability to Address Aspects of Town Meetings by Town Meeting Voting System Table 28: Ability to Address Specific Aspects of Town Meetings by Clerk Experience Tables in: Appendix E: Public Opinion Survey Findings on Progressives Table 29: Issue importance by Party Identification Table 30: Favorability Towards The Three Parties viii LIST OF FIGURES Figures in: Introduction Figure 1: Divided State Governments Over Time Figure 2: Party Breakdown - Vermont House, Vermont