A Model of Information Use During Anticipation Journal of Expertise 2020. Vol. 3(4) in Striking Sports (MIDASS) © 2020. The authors 1,2,3 1 4 license this article Oliver R. Runswick , André Roca , A. Mark Williams , and under the terms of the Jamie S. North1 Creative Commons 1Expert Performance and Skill Acquisition Research Group, Faculty of Sport, Allied Attribution 3.0 License. Health and Performance Science, St Mary’s University, UK ISSN 2573-2773 2Institute of Sport, University of Chichester, UK 3Department of Psychology, Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology & Neuroscience, King’s College London, UK 4Department of Health, Kinesiology and Recreation, College of Health, The University of Utah, USA Correspondence, Oliver Runswick: [email protected] Abstract In sports such as baseball, cricket, or tennis, skilled performers can strike fast moving objects with extremely high levels of accuracy. The ability to anticipate the outcome of an event, prior to the act itself, is crucial to superior performance. Published reports have identified several sources of information that skilled performers use to develop probabilistic judgements related to what might happen next. The focus has been on identifying key sources of sensory information, notionally postural cues, that may guide anticipation. However, more recently, researchers have started to explore how the context that surrounds the situation may facilitate skilled anticipation. Scientists have empirically explored how these two sources of information are integrated, prioritized, and affect anticipation and deception. Thus far, few efforts have been made to enhance the conceptual backdrop for this work or, more specifically, to identify specific hypotheses relating to performance. In this paper, we synthesize current literature and propose a model to explain how various information sources may be integrated during skilled anticipation and how this affects performance, with a particular focus on striking sports. We articulate several testable hypotheses to help focus future research. Keywords Perceptual-cognitive-motor skill, congruence, expertise, context Introduction Due to the time constraints inherent in some & Mann, 2015; Loffing & Cañal-Bruland, 2017; striking sports and limits to the speed that Williams & Jackson, 2019): namely, the pick-up humans can process information, skilled of sensory information from the emerging performers are required to anticipate what will display such as an opponent’s movement happen next ahead of the actual event in order to kinematics (Abernethy & Zawi, 2007; Müller et provide more time to execute an appropriate al., 2006) and the use of high-level contextual response (Loffing & Cañal-Bruland, 2017; information such as the score in the game or Yarrow et al., 2009). A substantive body of sequencing of previous events (e.g., see Cañal- research now exists to show that anticipation in Bruland & Mann, 2015; Loffing & Cañal- striking sports such as cricket and baseball is Bruland, 2017; Müller & Abernethy, 2012; underpinned by the integration of information Murphy et al., 2019). Potentially an interaction from at least two broad sources (Cañal-Bruland exists, with the performer being able to rely to https://www.journalofexpertise.org 197 Journal of Expertise / December 2020 / vol. 3, no. 4 Runswick et al. (2020) Information Use During Anticipation varying degrees on the pick-up of sensory 2009). Moreover, a large body of evidence information during the task itself and contextual exists demonstrating that skilled athletes display information that may be present or absent in the different visual search behaviours compared to display. less-skilled athletes (e.g., Mann et al., 2007; Previous efforts to develop models that Mann et al., 2019; McRobert et al., 2011; conceptualize the anticipation process in sport Williams et al., 2004). Since information (e.g., Müller & Abernethy, 2012: Williams, processing is suppressed when visual fixation 2009) have not fully accounted for the use of changes location through saccadic eye contextual information and how it is integrated movements (Campbell & Wurtz, 1978), periods with later emerging visual cues from an of fixation are associated with the pick-up of opponent (or opponents). While this state of information from both foveal (Mann et al., affairs is somewhat understandable, given the 2007) and peripheral vision (Ryu et al., 2015; limited empirical work that exists focusing on Ryu et al., 2016). Skilled performers typically the role of context in anticipation, it is demonstrate search patterns that lead to increasingly apparent that models of fixations on, and the retrieval of, information anticipation which fail to incorporate context most pertinent to performance in any given present an incomplete picture of the underlying situation (Mann et al., 2019). This work has mechanisms. Although several researchers have helped identify the most relevant sources of recently highlighted the importance of context visual information that lead to enhanced in anticipation (Loffing & Cañal-Bruland, 2017; anticipation. Morris-Binelli & Müller, 2017; Williams & The use of advance postural cues from an Jackson, 2019), nobody has yet synthesized opponent is one of the most widely investigated these findings with previous work in an effort to sources of visual information underpinning outline a conceptual model that may advance skilled anticipation (Smeeton et al., 2019). knowledge and understanding of the Williams and Davids (1998) showed that skilled phenomenon and produce explicit testable players in soccer can process advance cues to hypotheses. In this paper, we present the Model anticipate better the movements of an opponent. of Information use During Anticipation in Similarly, Savelsbergh et al. (2002) reported Striking Sports (MIDASS) and articulate that skilled soccer goalkeepers used fewer testable hypotheses that researchers in the field fixations of longer duration to different can examine emprically in an effort to refine locations on the opponent’s body than less- conceptual understanding. We begin by skilled counterparts when predicting the providing a brief overview of the current direction of a penalty kick, suggesting enhanced literature. We do not present an exhaustive pick-up of pertinent visual information. Initially, account of the literature in this field (for such it was believed that skilled performers extracted reviews, see Loffing & Cañal-Bruland, 2017; information from isolated postural cues; Morris-Binelli & Müller, 2017; Williams & however, contemporary research suggests that Jackson, 2019), but rather briefly highlight the postural cue usage could be a form of pattern key information sources that underpin recognition (Smeeton et al., 2019; Smeeton & anticipation and explain how these may be Huys, 2011). In striking sports, performers may integrated during performance. recognize patterns that emerge from the relationships between body parts and can Visual Information differentiate different skill types such as a slice, The perception and pick-up of visual flat, or kick serve in tennis (i.e., intra-individual information is most often seen in the ability to patterns; Huys et al., 2009). Whereas in recognize advanced postural cues from an interactive team sports, performers recognize opponent (Müller et al., 2006; Smeeton et al., patterns of movement between separate players 2019) or to detect familiarity in patterns within a (i.e., inter-individual patterns; North et al., display (e.g., North et al., 2017; North et al., 2009). https://www.journalofexpertise.org 198 Journal of Expertise / December 2020 / vol. 3, no.4 Runswick et al. (2020) Information Use During Anticipation Pattern recognition is the ability to perceive sources of information that underpin skilled familiarity in patterns of play early in their anticipation, this recent work highlights the evolution in an effort to facilitate anticipation multi-sensory nature of anticipation. (North & Williams, 2019). It is considered particularly important in team games such as Contextual Information soccer, basketball, and field hockey (Williams Sensory input is not the only source of & Ford, 2008). Skilled performers are better at information that can underpin the ability to recognizing and recalling complex patterns of assess situations and judge the probability of play in comparison with less-skilled players specific actions occurring. Abernethy et al. (Allard et al., 1980; Williams et al., 2006) and (2001) coined the term “situational appear to do so by encoding relational and probabilities” to describe the use of information structural information rather than relying on that was separate from the movement observed. isolated pieces of surface level information. For Although earlier work set a platform for others example, using a screen-based paradigm, North to follow (Alain & Girardin, 1978; Alain & et al. (2009) showed that skilled soccer players Proteau, 1980), limited attention has been were more accurate in anticipating pass outcome received by the influence of what is now often and displayed an increased sensitivity in their termed “context” on the ability to develop recognition judgments when viewing patterns of probabilities based on the information play in the absence of context or postural cues. surrounding a situation and enhance In striking sports, following information pick-up anticipation. Consequently, researchers have from patterns or postural cues, further pertinent often neglected key sources of information in