A Model of Information Use During Anticipation Journal of Expertise 2020. Vol. 3(4) in Striking Sports (MIDASS) © 2020. The authors 1,2,3 1 4 license this article Oliver R. Runswick , André Roca , A. Mark Williams , and under the terms of the Jamie S. North1 Creative Commons 1Expert Performance and Skill Acquisition Research Group, Faculty of Sport, Allied Attribution 3.0 License. Health and Performance Science, St Mary’s University, UK ISSN 2573-2773 2Institute of Sport, University of Chichester, UK 3Department of Psychology, Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology & Neuroscience, King’s College London, UK 4Department of Health, Kinesiology and Recreation, College of Health, The University of Utah, USA

Correspondence, Oliver Runswick: [email protected]

Abstract In sports such as baseball, cricket, or tennis, skilled performers can strike fast moving objects with extremely high levels of accuracy. The ability to anticipate the outcome of an event, prior to the act itself, is crucial to superior performance. Published reports have identified several sources of information that skilled performers use to develop probabilistic judgements related to what might happen next. The focus has been on identifying key sources of sensory information, notionally postural cues, that may guide anticipation. However, more recently, researchers have started to explore how the context that surrounds the situation may facilitate skilled anticipation. Scientists have empirically explored how these two sources of information are integrated, prioritized, and affect anticipation and deception. Thus far, few efforts have been made to enhance the conceptual backdrop for this work or, more specifically, to identify specific hypotheses relating to performance. In this paper, we synthesize current literature and propose a model to explain how various information sources may be integrated during skilled anticipation and how this affects performance, with a particular focus on striking sports. We articulate several testable hypotheses to help focus future research.

Keywords Perceptual-cognitive-motor skill, congruence, expertise, context

Introduction Due to the time constraints inherent in some & Mann, 2015; Loffing & Cañal-Bruland, 2017; striking sports and limits to the speed that Williams & Jackson, 2019): namely, the pick-up humans can process information, skilled of sensory information from the emerging performers are required to anticipate what will display such as an opponent’s movement happen next ahead of the actual event in order to kinematics (Abernethy & Zawi, 2007; Müller et provide more time to execute an appropriate al., 2006) and the use of high-level contextual response (Loffing & Cañal-Bruland, 2017; information such as the score in the game or Yarrow et al., 2009). A substantive body of sequencing of previous events (e.g., see Cañal- research now exists to show that anticipation in Bruland & Mann, 2015; Loffing & Cañal- striking sports such as cricket and baseball is Bruland, 2017; Müller & Abernethy, 2012; underpinned by the integration of information Murphy et al., 2019). Potentially an interaction from at least two broad sources (Cañal-Bruland exists, with the performer being able to rely to

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Runswick et al. (2020) Information Use During Anticipation varying degrees on the pick-up of sensory 2009). Moreover, a large body of evidence information during the task itself and contextual exists demonstrating that skilled athletes display information that may be present or absent in the different visual search behaviours compared to display. less-skilled athletes (e.g., Mann et al., 2007; Previous efforts to develop models that Mann et al., 2019; McRobert et al., 2011; conceptualize the anticipation process in sport Williams et al., 2004). Since information (e.g., Müller & Abernethy, 2012: Williams, processing is suppressed when visual fixation 2009) have not fully accounted for the use of changes location through saccadic eye contextual information and how it is integrated movements (Campbell & Wurtz, 1978), periods with later emerging visual cues from an of fixation are associated with the pick-up of opponent (or opponents). While this state of information from both foveal (Mann et al., affairs is somewhat understandable, given the 2007) and peripheral vision (Ryu et al., 2015; limited empirical work that exists focusing on Ryu et al., 2016). Skilled performers typically the role of context in anticipation, it is demonstrate search patterns that lead to increasingly apparent that models of fixations on, and the retrieval of, information anticipation which fail to incorporate context most pertinent to performance in any given present an incomplete picture of the underlying situation (Mann et al., 2019). This work has mechanisms. Although several researchers have helped identify the most relevant sources of recently highlighted the importance of context visual information that lead to enhanced in anticipation (Loffing & Cañal-Bruland, 2017; anticipation. Morris-Binelli & Müller, 2017; Williams & The use of advance postural cues from an Jackson, 2019), nobody has yet synthesized opponent is one of the most widely investigated these findings with previous work in an effort to sources of visual information underpinning outline a conceptual model that may advance skilled anticipation (Smeeton et al., 2019). knowledge and understanding of the Williams and Davids (1998) showed that skilled phenomenon and produce explicit testable players in soccer can process advance cues to hypotheses. In this paper, we present the Model anticipate better the movements of an opponent. of Information use During Anticipation in Similarly, Savelsbergh et al. (2002) reported Striking Sports (MIDASS) and articulate that skilled soccer goalkeepers used fewer testable hypotheses that researchers in the field fixations of longer duration to different can examine emprically in an effort to refine locations on the opponent’s body than less- conceptual understanding. We begin by skilled counterparts when predicting the providing a brief overview of the current direction of a penalty kick, suggesting enhanced literature. We do not present an exhaustive pick-up of pertinent visual information. Initially, account of the literature in this field (for such it was believed that skilled performers extracted reviews, see Loffing & Cañal-Bruland, 2017; information from isolated postural cues; Morris-Binelli & Müller, 2017; Williams & however, contemporary research suggests that Jackson, 2019), but rather briefly highlight the postural cue usage could be a form of pattern key information sources that underpin recognition (Smeeton et al., 2019; Smeeton & anticipation and explain how these may be Huys, 2011). In striking sports, performers may integrated during performance. recognize patterns that emerge from the relationships between body parts and can Visual Information differentiate different skill types such as a slice, The perception and pick-up of visual flat, or kick serve in tennis (i.e., intra-individual information is most often seen in the ability to patterns; Huys et al., 2009). Whereas in recognize advanced postural cues from an interactive team sports, performers recognize opponent (Müller et al., 2006; Smeeton et al., patterns of movement between separate players 2019) or to detect familiarity in patterns within a (i.e., inter-individual patterns; North et al., display (e.g., North et al., 2017; North et al., 2009).

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Pattern recognition is the ability to perceive sources of information that underpin skilled familiarity in patterns of play early in their anticipation, this recent work highlights the evolution in an effort to facilitate anticipation multi-sensory nature of anticipation. (North & Williams, 2019). It is considered particularly important in team games such as Contextual Information soccer, basketball, and field hockey (Williams Sensory input is not the only source of & Ford, 2008). Skilled performers are better at information that can underpin the ability to recognizing and recalling complex patterns of assess situations and judge the probability of play in comparison with less-skilled players specific actions occurring. Abernethy et al. (Allard et al., 1980; Williams et al., 2006) and (2001) coined the term “situational appear to do so by encoding relational and probabilities” to describe the use of information structural information rather than relying on that was separate from the movement observed. isolated pieces of surface level information. For Although earlier work set a platform for others example, using a screen-based paradigm, North to follow (Alain & Girardin, 1978; Alain & et al. (2009) showed that skilled soccer players Proteau, 1980), limited attention has been were more accurate in anticipating pass outcome received by the influence of what is now often and displayed an increased sensitivity in their termed “context” on the ability to develop recognition judgments when viewing patterns of probabilities based on the information play in the absence of context or postural cues. surrounding a situation and enhance In striking sports, following information pick-up anticipation. Consequently, researchers have from patterns or postural cues, further pertinent often neglected key sources of information in information can become available from the understanding anticipation in sport (Cañal- motion of an object and can be used if time Bruland & Mann, 2015). allows. For example, in a penalty kick in soccer, The term “context” refers to sources of using ball-flight information to anticipate a shot information that facilitate understanding of a direction may not leave enough time for a situation and could relate to both the current response. However, in cricket (depending on the situation and prior experiences of a performer. speed of a bowler) some of the most pertinent For example, a baseball batter could develop visual information can be gained from the very expectations of a pitcher’s actions based on the early phases of ball flight (Müller et al., 2006; current game situation, events that have Runswick et al., 2018b; Runswick et al., 2020). occurred previously in the current match, and every other match historically played against the Non-visual Sensory Information same pitcher. It is possible that context could Scientists have also examined the importance of inform anticipation through processes in short- non-visual information during anticipation. term memory, retrieval of information from Building on the early findings of Takeuchi long-term memory, and by updating retrieval (1993) that showed the importance of auditory structures “on the fly” through interaction information, Cañal-Bruland et al. (2018) used a between information in working memory and series of video clips from a major tennis long-term memory (long-term working memory, tournament and manipulated the volume of cf. Ericsson & Kintsch, 1995; Murphy et al., racket ball contact while players predicted the 2016). Context is an embedded and tiered landing point of shots. When presented with hierarchy of information that can be obtained louder racket-ball contact, tennis players prior to, or during, play. This information can consistently anticipated deeper groundstrokes. sometimes be visual in nature (e.g., looking at Similarly, Müller et al. (2019) showed that the the scoreboard) and at other times independent intensity of a grunt when hitting the ball in of visual input (e.g., a conversation with a coach tennis systematically influenced judgement of about an opponent’s tendencies). Therefore, it is ball trajectory. While traditionally researchers necessary for researchers to clearly define the have primarily focused on identifying the visual different sources of context that can be

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Runswick et al. (2020) Information Use During Anticipation controlled experimentally in order to avoid the such as action preferences, action capabilities, confusion of such an all-encompassing term. score in a game, sequencing, and field settings. Several researchers have identified pertinent While the score, sequencing, and field placing sources of contextual information in striking can change across a game, in most striking sports (see Table 1). For example, knowledge of sports they remain stable for each occasion at game score (Farrow & Reid, 2012), the which a skill is executed (e.g., a point in tennis, sequence in which information is displayed delivery in cricket, or pitch in baseball). (McRobert et al., 2011), knowledge of opponent Skilled performers are better at utilizing early position (Loffing & Hagemann, 2014), action available contextual information to assign preferences (Mann et al., 2014), and information probabilities to possible events that may occur concerning the positioning of both opposing given their experience and sophisticated players (Runswick et al., 2018a) are all different supporting knowledge structures (Ward & sources of contextual information which have Williams, 2003). For example, the type of been shown to influence anticipation. In the delivery likely to be bowled based on previous MIDASS presented in this paper, we focus our deliveries in cricket or where a certain player efforts on identifying information that is might place a penalty kick in soccer. The available prior to the execution of the skill by superior ability of skilled performers to use the opponent and which remains stable context to anticipate actions has been displayed throughout the process of making a response, empirically in a variety of sports, with a particular focus on time-constrained striking sports such as cricket (McRobert et al., 2011; Müller et al., 2020, Runswick et al., 2018a) and tennis (Murphy et al., 2016).

Table 1. Examples of contextual and sensory information sources identified as playing a role in anticipation.

Contextual Examples Example Citation Event Sequences Shot sequence in tennis points Murphy et al. (2018) Attack sequence in karate Milazzo et al. (2015)

Opponent action Attacking tendencies in soccer Gredin et al. (2018) tendencies/preferences Shooting direction preference in Mann et al. (2014) handball

Game related information Score and time in cricket Runswick et al. (2018a, 2018b)

Prior player positioning Court position in tennis Loffing and Hagemann (2014) Fielder position in cricket Runswick et al. (2018a, 2018b)

Current Sensory Examples Example Citation Relative motion Motion of basketball players Allard et al. (1980) Motion of attacking players in North et al. (2009) soccer

Advanced Cues Postural cues in squash Abernethy (1990) Postural cues in soccer penalties Savelsbergh et al. (2002)

Object motion Ball flight in cricket Müller et al. (2006) Ball trajectory in baseball Gray & Cañal-Bruland (2018)

Sound Racquet-ball contact in tennis Cañal-Bruland et al. (2018)

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Information Integration Bruland, & Schmidt, 2009; Güldenpenning et An important question relates to how these al., 2017; Jackson et al., 2006). Equally, in various sources of information are integrated to addition to deceiving or disguising through facilitate superior anticipation. Gredin et al. postural cues, it is possible to deceive by (2020) have suggested that the researchers could providing incorrect or misleading context look to adopt a Bayesian integration model of (Cañal-Bruland et al., 2015; Runswick et al., probabilistic influence to explain this process. 2019). For example, in baseball the batter’s Very few researchers have examined this issue awareness that the pitcher has the capability to directly, with two recent exceptions. Gray and deliver a fastball can negatively affect the Cañal-Bruland (2018) showed that baseball batter’s ability to anticipate a slower pitch. In batters can integrate probabilistic information general, this research has shown that with visual information from postural cues and performance outcomes in response to deceptive ball flight depending on the reliability of each actions are dependent on the prioritization of source and the time that it is available. information sources and whether the Runswick et al. (2018b) showed that perceptual information that is prioritized, be it contextual judgements were initially formed based on or sensory, is congruent with the event outcome context (field placing, score and time in the (Murphy et al., 2019). These findings are game) prior to the appearance of useful sensory aligned with athletes employing Bayesian information, with re-prioritization between these reliability-based strategies (Gredin et al., 2020). different sources occurring later in the process. When skilled performers prioritize visual This latter conclusion has been supported in information, they have been shown to be better more fundamental investigations of the able to adapt to deceptive visual information, interaction between expectations and albeit they are likely to be more significantly perceptions where expectations (probabilistic negatively affected when prioritizing context judgements based on context) are relied upon (Runswick et al., 2019). Past attempts to strongly when stimuli (e.g., visual cues from an conceptualize anticipation in sport have not opponent or ball-flight) are unclear (de Lange et made specific predictions about how using al., 2018). However, when sources of different sources of information will affect information are misleading (such as a deceptive performance, and in such models scientists have field setting in cricket) this can have a negative not considered the negative impact that may effect on the athlete’s (batter’s) ability to predict arise when deceptive information is presented. location of the ball in the optimum amount of time (Runswick et al., 2019). Current Models A conceptual model that fully incorporates Deception contextual information and makes specific The challenge of picking up key information predictions about performance outcomes does sources to guide anticipation does not always not currently exist. A few previous models have have a positive effect on performance (Jackson been produced showing various approaches to & Cañal-Bruland, 2019). For example, conceptualizing anticipation (e.g., Müller & deception can be inherently part of movement Abernethy, 2012; Williams et al., 2009) or the execution in sport (covert deception). use of visual information in sport (Laby & Alternatively, the employment of deliberately Kirschen, 2018). However, these models have deceptive actions can lead opponents to make not presented specific predictions about the incorrect anticipatory judgements (overt influence of different information sources on deception). This is a topic that has recently performance, how information sources are received significant attention in the literature integrated, or could be deceptive in nature. In investigating skills such as sidesteps in rugby this section, we extend on the work of Müller and head fakes in basketball (e.g., Cañal- and Abernethy (2012) who proposed a two- stage model centering on outlining the visual https://www.journalofexpertise.org 201 Journal of Expertise / December 2020 / vol. 3, no.4

Runswick et al. (2020) Information Use During Anticipation processes involved during skilled anticipation in A more recent attempt to produce a sport- striking sports. The model focused on the use of specific model in striking sports was proposed advanced visual information, such as kinematic by Vernon et al. (2018). Using data from eight cues for early movement of the lower body and the interviews with tennis players who had been in use of ball-flight information to build on these the top 250 in the world, the authors highlighted probabilities and execute an interceptive action. themes including the use of both contextual and The model uses the term “situational probabilities,” kinematic information sources during but, while acknowledging the limited literature anticipation over the period from 24 hours prior available at the time, fails to account fully for to anticipating a serve in tennis to after ball broader use of contextual information throughout contact during the return. However, the nature the anticipation process. An updated version of this of this approach is limited by the use of model proposed by Morris-Binelli and Müller qualitative data from a limited sample and, (2017) acknowledges the wider role of situational- while insightful, athletes will report only probabilities and poses further questions about the explicit rather than implicit processes, which prioritization of information but does not make may limit the impact of the work and its explicit testable predictions relating to the positive application to anticipation in striking sports as a or negative effects that various combinations of whole. A model that conceptualizes common information could have on performance. aspects across striking sports and produces Furthermore, while the model suggested that hypotheses that are testable in a broad range of expertise is characterized by broader information tasks can guide future empirical work. This shift use, the linear nature in which information is used towards more empirically driven work will in the model does not allow for the dynamic ultimately enhance the generalizability of interaction and differing prioritization of findings and increase the translational impact of information sources over time displayed in more this work to applied domains. recent work around deception and information integration (see Gredin et al., 2020).

Figure 1. The Model of Information use During Anticipation in Striking Sports (MIDASS). The left-hand section shows the information that becomes available over time. The right-hand section shows how these sources of information interact to affect performance.

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Model of Information use During model that can make specific predictions about Anticipation in Striking Sports (MIDASS) the relationship between contextual and sensory The body of evidence for the use of contextual information and performance, it is necessary to information to aid anticipation continues to categorize these sources. grow, along with our understanding for how the Many performance measures in the literature relative importance of postural cues and context have focused on the accuracy of anticipation vary and interact over time. Therefore, (e.g., Müller et al., 2020; Murphy et al., 2016; researchers aiming to investigate anticipation in Runswick et al., 2018a). However, there is striking sports would benefit from a model that clearly a significant temporal element to accounts for task-specific differences in anticipation, particularly in fast-paced striking information usage and for the complex sports (e.g., baseball, cricket, or tennis). The relationships that exist between the many MIDASS centres on performance, referring to different sources of sensory and contextual the speed and accuracy of an anticipation information that affect anticipation. A model of judgement. Müller and Abernethy’s (2012) the continuous processing of contextual and model suggests that the use of ball flight sensory information, accounting for both information combined with postural cues would positive and negative effects on performance, is enable the responder’s striking action to evolve required to fully understand anticipation in sport “just in time.” We propose that the speed of a and to guide future research in this field. The decision, however, does not mean at the last Model of Information use During Anticipation possible moment or that a faster decision is in Striking Sports (MIDASS; Figure 1) was better. Decisions need to be made either at the developed using current empirical research and optimum time for the specific task or with the inspiration from other models of perceptual- highest possible level of accuracy in the limited motor-control (e.g., Nieuwenhuys & Oudejans, time available. A negative effect on anticipation 2012) to enhance understanding of the processes performance incorporates either a less accurate and mechanisms underpinning anticipation and judgement or a judgement made at a less to provide researchers with specific testable opportune time for a specific task. The MIDASS hypotheses. offers predictions as to how different sources of information contribute to anticipation in the Scope and Aim of MIDASS form of the production of accurate decisions at We categorize the different sources of the most appropriate time to make those information used during anticipation in Figure judgements. These predictions are based on the 1. Contextual information includes early congruence between information (from any available sources of information that facilitate source) and the actual event outcome (i.e., understanding of a situation, such as an available information does or does not match opponent’s action preference(s), action the outcome of a future event). While this capabilities, prior performances, game score, relationship may exist on a continuum of time left in the game, the conditions of the pitch, certainty (Gray & Cañal-Bruland, 2018), for the opponent positioning or formation, and the purposes of producing clear and easily testable sequence of preceding events. While contextual hypotheses from this model, we refer to this in a sources of information can be visual or auditory dichotomous fashion with information either in nature, we refer to sensory information as falling on the congruent or incongruent side of sources of current novel information available to the continuum. a performer during the anticipation process, Our model suggests that contextual such as information from kinematic cues, information will be the predominant source pattern recognition, and other task specific early in the anticipation process and that current sources including ball flight. While it is likely sensory information will be become more that contextual and sensory information will influential close to the interception point have a dynamic relationship, for producing a (Müller & Abernethy, 2012). However, in the https://www.journalofexpertise.org 203 Journal of Expertise / December 2020 / vol. 3, no.4

Runswick et al. (2020) Information Use During Anticipation current model, the relative contribution of each tennis player will know the score of the game source of information is likely to vary over time, and sequence of serves that have occurred but and the time at which certain sources of may not have sufficient knowledge to link this information emerge, and are used, is likely to be information to a future event outcome, thereby task- and situation-specific (e.g., Gredin et al., rendering this information meaningless. When 2018; Runswick et al., 2018b; Vernon et al., anticipation predictions move above or below 2018). While we offer broad suggestions on the chance, a source of information is being utilized use of information over time, the MIDASS and linked to a future event outcome either allows for varying levels of influence from correctly or incorrectly. information sources across time depending on Hypothesis 1 is based on literature that has the specific skill being investigated. demonstrated skill level differences in the use of Furthermore, our model does not suggest that both contextual and sensory information (e.g., only one source of contextual and sensory Müller et al., 2009; Runswick et al., 2018b). information is working at once. In fact, multiple However, research that can show novice sources of information interact dynamically and performers recognizing contextual and sensory constantly to inform action until a response is information but anticipating at chance level, executed, and the nature of anticipation being exposed to either explicit instruction on performance is dependent on the relationship the relationship between information and event between these information sources and the event outcome for a period practice, then improving outcome. above chance, would further support this prediction. This relationship between Hypotheses and Empirical Support anticipation performance, information source, Hypothesis 1. and event outcome is a key to the model. Both contextual and current sensory information can influence anticipation Hypothesis 2. performance directly, but this effect is neutral Contextual information is available before (chance level) until knowledge of the current sensory information. Earlier judgements relationships between information sources and are therefore based predominantly on context. event outcomes is developed by a performer. Information available later (e.g., postural cues The arrows in Figure 1 represent or ball-flight) will be used to confirm, update, or relationships between information sources and override original judgements. performance and what, if anything, mediates In their earlier two-stage model, Müller and this relationship. The location of these arrows Abernethy (2012), while touching on shows whether this relationship is negative (left) “situational probabilities,” focused on the use of or positive (right). The central arrows from the advanced visual information, such as kinematic information categories to performance represent cues for early movement and the use of ball- the direct influence that both contextual and flight information, to build on these sensory information have on anticipation. probabilities and execute an interceptive action. Previously, researchers have shown that context Morris-Binelli and Müller (2017) extended this can influence anticipation in the absence of model, by acknowledging the influence of early other novel sensory information (Murphy et al., available contextual information, and posed 2016; Runswick et al., 2018b) and that sensory questions on how it may be integrated with information can influence anticipation in the visual information. Vernon et al. (2018) have absence of context (Müller et al., 2009). since identified information that was used by However, these sources of information are elite tennis players for a period from 24 hours meaningless until performers develop prior to a match. We acknowledge the knowledge structures to link information to prediction that contextual information can be probabilities of potential event outcomes available significantly earlier than kinematic (Christensen et al., 2016). For example, a novice information and be used to narrow probabilities

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Runswick et al. (2020) Information Use During Anticipation of possible outcomes, potentially long before contextual information do not operate in any movement response is initiated. However, isolation, but rather more often will interact and following the appearance of kinematic and ball work in parallel. In this regard, MIDASS flight information, athletes will not use this predicts that when concurrent sensory information to produce judgements independent information and contextual information are both of context, but will integrate emerging sensory congruent with the actual event outcome, while information with early available context to they might carry different weight, then their confirm, update, or override original judgements effects will be additive and more facilitative to depending on congruence and reliability (Gredin anticipation than either would be in isolation. et al., 2020; Runswick et al., 2018b). Hypothesis 5 discusses how information can be prioritized Hypothesis 4. if different sources suggest contrasting When information is incongruent with the event outcomes. outcome, this will negatively affect anticipation. Hypothesis 2 is made based on research The greatest negative effect will occur when all paradigms that have systematically occluded the sources of sensory and contextual information availability of either contextual or visual are incongruent with the outcome. information and measured anticipation An incongruent relationship exists when an performance (e.g., Müller et al., 2020; information source indicates an outcome that is Runswick et al., 2018b). In the future, different from the event that actually occurs. researchers could further test this prediction by This relationship is displayed on the left side of including more direct measures of information the model. Although researchers have shown processing (e.g., EEG, Simonet et al., 2019) or that anticipation improves when congruence testing this in-situ using methods such as exists between the available information and occlusion goggles. actual outcome, it has also been demonstrated that when performers are presented with Hypothesis 3. deceptive or misleading information (i.e., the When information is congruent with the event available information is not congruent with the outcome, this will enhance anticipation actual outcome) then anticipation is negatively performance and the greatest positive impact on affected (see Güldenpenning et al., 2017; performance will occur when all sources of Jackson & Cañal-Bruland, 2019). While contextual and sensory information are Hypothesis 2 outlines the positive effects of congruent with the event outcome. context on anticipation, Runswick et al. (2019) A congruent relationship exists when an used cricket batting to show that a negative information source indicates an outcome that effect on anticipation can occur when contextual matches the actual event outcome that occurs. information is incongruent with the actual event As discussed earlier, the majority of researchers outcome. Therefore, MIDASS predicts that if all have focused on identifying the key sources of sources of information (current sensory congruent visual information that facilitate information and contextual information) skilled anticipation performance (Smeeton et al., indicate an outcome which is different to that 2019). More recent work has shown that skilled which occurs, then anticipation performance performers use contextual information to will negatively be affected to the greatest facilitate anticipation (Murphy et al., 2016; possible extent. The negative effects will be Runswick et al., 2018a). On the basis of these additive and more pronounced than if either previously published reports, MIDASS predicts only sensory information or contextual that when either sensory or contextual information were incongruent with the actual information is present and congruent with actual outcome. event outcome then there will be a positive Hypotheses 3 and 4 can both be tested in effect on anticipation performance. However, parallel by researchers systematically we recognize that sensory information and manipulating the relationship between

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Runswick et al. (2020) Information Use During Anticipation contextual information, sensory information, probabilistic information related to pitch type and the event outcome to test the additive with visual information by prioritizing effects of multiple congruent information information use based on the reliability of each sources or indeed the negative effects of source and the time that it is available (Gray & consistently incongruent information. This Cañal-Bruland, 2018). Prioritization of what are testing could occur in the laboratory using deemed to be the most reliable information controlled video or virtual stimuli or in-situ sources can lead to a significant performance where researchers can use hypothetical benefit if a congruent source is prioritized or scenarios to simulate performance performance deficit if information that is environments. incongruent with the eventual event outcome is prioritized. Hypothesis 5. In a similar fashion to hypothesis 3, Congruent and incongruent information can act hypothesis 5 could be tested by employing more simultaneously; the overall anticipation direct measures of information processing performance will depend on how the anticipator where the use of current sensory input can be prioritizes information and the reliability of objectively differentiated from the use of information sources and the point of time in the information from memory stores that are a result anticipation process. of context that was available earlier. This As highlighted, current sensory information process, combined with manipulation of and contextual information do not present information reliability and measures of themselves in isolation, but rather will performance, could tease apart how context and frequently be available simultaneously. It is, of sensory input are prioritized based on reliability. course, possible for one of these sources of The investigation of this hypothesis could also information to be congruent with event outcome benefit from the application of the Bayesian and the other to be incongruent. For example, in model of probabilistic inference proposed by cricket, a fielding team may place fielders in Gredin et al. (2020). While this a broader such a way to increase the possibility of a theoretical approach than the MIDASS it could certain type of delivery, but the visual cues from offer a useful bridge with which to incorporate the biological motion of the bowler may understanding of information integration from increase the probability of a different type of other domains with our understanding of delivery. In such instances, the effect on striking sports. anticipation is dependent on how these information sources are prioritized, which itself Hypothesis 6. is not fixed and may fluctuate over time. Opponents can deliberately manipulate Runswick et al. (2018b) occluded video footage information sources to their advantage to at various points in the bowling sequence in decrease anticipation performance. This effect cricket and demonstrated that contextual occurs by deliberately developing incongruent information was prioritized earlier (when it relationships between contextual information, became available) and remained influential sensory information, and event outcome. throughout, with visual sensory information A large body of literature has shown that having a greater influence when it became opponents can use kinematic cues to deceive or available later. In a follow-up study using the disguise action intentions and impair same task, Runswick et al. (2019) showed that anticipation performance (see Güldenpenning et when context was incongruent with the event al., 2017; Jackson et al., 2006). As detailed in outcome, but current sensory (visual in this Hypothesis 4, Runswick et al. (2019) showed case) information was congruent, the negative that contextual information can negatively affect impact on performance could be mediated by anticipation when it is incongruent with actual the differential prioritization of information event outcome, opening up the possibility that sources. Similarly, baseball batters can integrate performers could deliberately manipulate such

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Runswick et al. (2020) Information Use During Anticipation contextual information to deceive anticipation may position their bodies in a way that responses similarly. MIDASS shows that encourages the opponent to direct the serve in a deception from an opponent’s use of either specific direction, thereby increasing the sensory (e.g., postural cues) or contextual probability of that event outcome occurring. information can affect performance by altering Defenders in football will often position their the congruence of the relationship between bodies in a certain way to force the opponent in information sources and the event outcome. For a certain direction to greatly increase the example, an opponent can deliberately execute a probability of that outcome occurring. To skill that is unlikely in a certain situation. This understand what happens in anticipation in action would mean that context is incongruent striking sports tasks, it is necessary to with the postural-cues and then with the event investigate the part responders play in the outcome and anticipation performance anticipation process. This MIDASS makes decreases. Likewise, an opponent could execute predictions to guide this investigation going a skill that is highly likely in the given context, forward. The responder can also manipulate but simultaneously aim to disguise sensory cues, current sensory and contextual information, such as covering up finger position on a increasing the probability of an opponent baseball, thereby rendering kinematic executing a certain action and therefore create information incongruent with the event outcome congruence between information sources and and decreasing anticipation performance. An the event outcome. opponent can negate a performer’s ability to In the future, those testing hypotheses 6 and make an accurate anticipatory judgement by 7 could facilitate a significant step forward in employing a manipulation that causes understanding by treating anticipation and incongruence between sensory information, deception as dynamic and interactive processes. contextual information or both, and the actual There may be a need for the development of event outcome. As predicted in Hypothesis 5, paradigms where both parties (i.e., actor and this can be countered by the responder perceiver) are able to execute skills freely, prioritizing the most reliable, congruent sources presenting the need to measure how to of information or be most detrimental when all manipulate contextual and sensory information. sources of information are incongruent Performance analysis could have a significant (Hypothesis 4). role to play in sports such as cricket where the positions of fielders are carefully manipulated Hypothesis 7. by the bowling team and actions of bowlers and Responders can deliberately manipulate outcome of deliveries are regularly recorded. situations to their advantage and increase While the proposed model accounts for a anticipation performance. number of areas that have been missing from An area that has lacked investigation in the previous attempts to model anticipation, not literature is the influence of the performer who least the detailed inclusion of contextual is anticipating and executing a response in the information alongside sensory information and process- in this MIDASS, referred to as the presentation of specific and testable “responder influence.” To counter opponent hypotheses, there is still much work to be done. deception, the responder could influence the We hope the MIDASS can provide a focal point opponent to create favorable situations in which for directly testing hypotheses in order to sources of information are congruent with the enhance and refine our understanding of the outcome. For example, in cricket, the responder processes underpinning anticipation. In the can manipulate the contextual information that future, further work could allow for the develops, such as sequences of event (McRobert consideration of other factors that affect et al., 2011). Cricket batters often play a series anticipation, such as anxiety and fatigue, and of shots moving closer to the bowler to induce a how such factors affect information pick-up. short ball delivery later on. In tennis, returners Furthermore, researchers should move beyond

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