DEPA 2050 Study Report DEPA 2050 Development Pathways for Aviation up to 2050 - Final Report - DEPA 2050 Study Report Title Development Pathways for Aviation up to 2050 – Study Report Project Acronym DEPA 2050 Publisher German Aerospace Center Authors Leipold, Alexandra; Aptsiauri, Gubaz; Ayazkhani, Amir; Bauder, Uwe; Becker, Richard-Gregor; Berghof, Ralf; Claßen, Axel; Dadashi, Alireza; Dahlmann, Katrin; Dzikus, Niclas; Flüthmann, Nico; Grewe, Volker; Göhlich, Lukas; Grimme, Wolfgang; Günther; Yves; Jaksche, Roman; Jung, Martin; Knabe, Franz; Kutne, Peter; Le Clercq, Patrick; Pabst, Holger; Poggel, Steffen; Staggat, Martin; Wicke, Kai; Wolters, Florian; Zanger, Jan; Zill, Thomas Page 2 DEPA 2050 Study Report A note on Covid-19 The DEPA 2050 study was conceptualised and, to a large extent, already conducted before the full impact of the Covid-19 pandemic became apparent. Thus, the results of this study have to be regarded and interpreted in the light of a pre-Covid 19 environment. However, major changes through the Covid-19 pandemic are illustrated and discussed in the relevant sections of this report to provide additional information on potential impacts on the results and the situation of air transport as it is today. Page 3 DEPA 2050 Study Report Content 1. Introduction ................................................................................................................... 11 1.1. Motivation for the Project ........................................................................................ 11 1.2. State of Research .................................................................................................... 12 1.3. Research Objectives ................................................................................................. 15 2. Project DEPA 2050 ......................................................................................................... 16 2.1. Objectives ............................................................................................................... 16 2.2. Structure ................................................................................................................. 18 2.3. Methodology .......................................................................................................... 19 3. Air Transport System Development up to 2050 ........................................................... 24 3.1. DEPA 2050 Scenario Assumptions ........................................................................... 24 3.1.1. Methodological Approach ..................................................................................... 24 3.1.2. Relevant Drivers and Factors .................................................................................. 25 3.1.3. Scenario Taxonomy ............................................................................................... 29 3.1.4. Framework Developments ..................................................................................... 31 3.1.5. Vehicle-specific Scenarios ...................................................................................... 42 3.2. COVID-19 impact on aviation and DEPA 2050 scenarios ........................................... 56 3.3. Demand Forecast .................................................................................................... 61 3.3.1. Traffic Forecast Methodology for established Vehicle Concepts ............................... 61 3.3.2. Traffic Forecast Results for established Vehicle Concepts ......................................... 65 3.3.3. Traffic Forecast Results and Methodology for Supersonic Aircraft ............................ 71 3.3.4. Traffic Forecast Results and Methodology for Urban Air Mobility ............................. 74 3.4. Fleet Forecast .......................................................................................................... 77 3.4.1. Fleet Forecast Methodology ................................................................................... 77 3.4.2. Fleet Forecast Results ............................................................................................. 83 3.5. Expected Development and Efficiency Gains in Airport and Terminal Management .... 88 4. Technological Developments/Technology Roadmaps ................................................. 94 4.1. Technological Developments “Passenger Aircraft“ ................................................... 94 4.1.1. Propulsion ............................................................................................................. 94 4.1.2. Aircraft Technology ............................................................................................... 98 4.2. Aircraft Configuration Roadmaps .......................................................................... 103 4.3. Passenger Aircraft within DEPA 2050 ..................................................................... 105 4.3.1. Seat Category 1-4 ............................................................................................... 105 4.3.2. Seat Category 5-12 ............................................................................................. 108 4.4. Hydrogen Aircraft ................................................................................................. 116 4.5. Technological Developments “ATM“ ..................................................................... 120 4.5.1. ATM Roadmaps on World Level and European Level ............................................. 120 4.5.2. Expected Efficiency Gains in ATM......................................................................... 126 Page 4 DEPA 2050 Study Report 4.5.3. ATM Efficiency Measurements and Forecasts ........................................................ 128 4.6. Technological Developments “Aviation MRO” ....................................................... 135 4.6.1. Technological Trends in Aviation MRO ................................................................. 135 4.6.2. Implications of Sustainable Propulsion Concepts for Future Aviation MRO ............. 140 4.7. Technological Developments “Synthetic Fuels/Alternative Fuels“ ............................. 146 4.7.1. Current Status of SAF – Approval and Technology ................................................ 146 4.7.2. Current SAF Development ................................................................................... 148 4.7.3. Potential Limitations and Opportunities ................................................................ 149 4.7.4. Assumptions for the DEPA 2050 Scenarios ........................................................... 150 4.8. Technological Developments “Advanced Vehicle Concepts“ ................................... 153 4.8.1. Technological Developments “Supersonic Aircraft“ .............................................. 153 4.8.2. Technological Developments “Rotorcraft“ ............................................................ 158 4.8.3. Technological Developments “Urban Air Mobility“ ............................................... 159 5. Impact Analysis for the DEPA 2050 Scenarios ............................................................ 166 5.1. Results on Mobility and Vehicle Productivity ........................................................... 166 5.1.1. Mainliner/regional aircraft .................................................................................... 166 5.1.2. Small air transport ............................................................................................... 179 5.2. Results on Emissions and Climate Impact ............................................................... 182 5.2.1. Methodology of Emission Inventories ................................................................... 182 5.2.2. Emission Inventory Results ................................................................................... 182 5.2.3. Outcome on Climate Impact ................................................................................ 189 5.2.4. Estimation of CO2 Emissions of Supersonic Air Transport ...................................... 196 5.3. Results on Aircraft Noise ........................................................................................ 196 5.3.1. Preliminary Analytical Investigation of Rotor-Stator Interaction (RSI) Noise for a Distributed Propulsion System .............................................................................. 197 5.3.2. Analytical Prediction of Boundary Layer Ingestion (BLI) Noise ................................. 200 5.3.3. Literature Review ................................................................................................. 203 5.3.4. Conclusion of Aircraft Noise Studies ..................................................................... 206 5.3.5. State of Research in Aircraft Noise Impact Assessments ........................................ 206 5.4. Results on Economy .............................................................................................. 209 5.4.1. Overview ............................................................................................................. 209 5.4.2. Results on global scale ......................................................................................... 211 5.4.3. Results for EU level .............................................................................................. 213 5.5. Evaluation of Results ............................................................................................. 214 6. Conclusion ..................................................................................................................