DEMOCRATIZATION AND VIOLENCE INTERLINKED? PRESENTING A CRITICAL ANALYSIS OF THE DEMOCRATIZATION PROCESS IN MYANMAR AND THE CONFLICT IN RAKHINE STATE FROM 2011 TO 2018 Wetenschappelijke verhandeling Aantal woorden: 26.823 Anaïs Goos Stamnummer: 01611354 Promotor: Prof. dr. Jeroen Adam Copromotor: Prof. dr. Koenraad Bogaert Masterproef voorgelegd voor het behalen van de graad master in de richting Conflict en Development Academiejaar: 2017-2018 1 Table of Contents Table of Contents ............................................................................................................................... 2 Abstract .............................................................................................................................................. 4 Chapter One: Introduction ................................................................................................................. 5 1.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................................... 5 1.2 Problem statement ................................................................................................................. 6 1.3 Aim and objectives of the research ....................................................................................... 8 1.4 Research question(s) ........................................................................................................... 10 1.5 Methodology ....................................................................................................................... 10 Chapter Two: Theoretical framework .............................................................................................. 12 2.1 The concept of democratization and internal instability ..................................................... 12 2.2 Democratization, political mobilization and communal violence ...................................... 15 2.3 Democratization and active exclusion by the state ............................................................. 17 2.4 Political exclusion: an incentive for violence ..................................................................... 19 2.5 Electoral violence ................................................................................................................ 20 2.6 Conclusion .......................................................................................................................... 20 Chapter Three: Methodology ........................................................................................................... 23 3.1 Case selection ......................................................................................................................... 23 Why Myanmar? ....................................................................................................................... 23 Why Rakhine State? ................................................................................................................. 25 3.2 Working method .................................................................................................................... 27 Chapter Four: Myanmar’s political transition .................................................................................. 29 4.1 Historical background ............................................................................................................ 29 4.2 The start of the democratization process ............................................................................... 30 4.3 The opposition enters the political game ............................................................................... 32 4.4 First free and fair general parliamentary elections ................................................................ 32 Chapter Five: Analysis of the increase in violence in Rakhine State .............................................. 35 5.1 Hate speech, extreme nationalism and political mobilization ............................................... 35 Political actors and their mobilization in Rakhine State .......................................................... 37 Two extreme Buddhist nationalist groups: The 969 Movement and MaBaTha ...................... 40 2 The military and Buddhist (Rakhine) Nationalists: allies in anti-Muslim violence ................ 45 5.2 Active discrimination of Rohingya by the Myanmar government ........................................ 46 Discriminatory laws and policies ............................................................................................. 47 Disenfranchisement .................................................................................................................. 50 Violence aimed against Rohingya ........................................................................................... 51 (Forced) Relocation to remote regions and IDP camps ........................................................... 52 Incitement and encouragement of hatred ................................................................................. 54 5.3 The ARSA-attacks: The result of political exclusion? .......................................................... 56 A new Muslim insurgency ....................................................................................................... 56 ARSA: a new actor in Rakhine’s political landscape .............................................................. 57 Chapter Six: Conclusion .................................................................................................................. 60 Bibliography .................................................................................................................................... 63 3 Abstract Deze masterproef analyseert of er een link bestaat tussen het democratiseringsproces in Myanmar en de toename van geweld in Rakhine State, een deelstaat in het westen van het land. Hierbij wordt enerzijds onderzocht wat het belang is van identiteitsframes en de mobilisering ervan en anderzijds of de democratisering ook nieuwe types van geweld genereert. Myanmar is wereldwijd een van de jongste experimenten met democratie. Sinds de start van de democratisering wordt het land echter geconfronteerd met een stijging van geweld in bepaalde regio's. In Rakhine State lopen de spanningen hoog op tussen Rakhine boeddhisten en Rohingya moslims. Bovendien is er een toename in staatsgeweld en -discriminatie waarneembaar, daar het Birmese leger rechtstreeks deelneemt aan de vijandelijkheden en de overheid een beleid van actieve discriminatie tegen de Rohingya voert. Deze actieve (politieke) uitsluiting heeft gezorgd voor een gewelddadige reactie vanuit de Rohingya bevolking. Deze masterproef toont, aan de hand van een literatuurstudie, aan dat al deze dimensies van het conflict kunnen gelinkt worden aan het democratiseringsproces omwille van drie redenen. In de eerste plaats zorgt een toename in politieke competitie voor een politieke mobilisatie van verschillende groepen en identiteiten. Hierbij wordt beroep gedaan op etnisch nationalisme, moslimhaat en Rakhine grieven. Groepen worden zo tegen elkaar opgezet wat leidt tot een toename in communaal geweld. Ten tweede, wordt er gedurende het democratiseringsproces bepaald wie wel en niet tot de Burmese natie behoort. Dit leidt tot de actieve uitsluiting van bepaalde (minderheids)groepen door de staat, wat zich manifesteert in actieve discriminatie en zelfs genocidaal geweld. Tenslotte, kan worden aangetoond dat de uitgesloten groep overgaat tot geweld als een reactie op de (politieke) uitsluiting en met als doel te worden opgenomen in de natie. 4 Chapter One: Introduction 1.1 Introduction Myanmar, the Southeast Asian country formerly known as Burma1, is one of the world’s youngest experiments with democracy. The country gained independence from British rule in 1948 and installed a democracy from that moment on. Fourteen years later however, this democracy got destroyed by a largely bloodless coup and turned into a dictatorship. For decades, the country was known for its military oppression. Visible reform in Myanmar dates from 2011, when the military junta succumbed to domestic and international pressure. In the space of no more than a few months overt military rule was dismantled, a quasi-civilian government took office and top political leaders made public commitments to gradual political change (Holliday, 2014; International Crisis Group, 2011). When Myanmar’s military junta announced its democratization plans, the international community celebrated. After decades of civil war, authoritarianism and isolation, Burma was finally going to enter a process of democratization and development. All the international praise and optimism for Myanmar’s transition soon watered down, as the country became world news in 2012, when unexpected Buddhist pogroms arose against a Muslim minority in Rakhine State. This seriously strained intercommunal relations. It generated feelings of insecurity in Buddhist and Muslim communities but had the biggest impact on the latter. The conflict hardened anti-Muslim sentiment and led to an increase in Buddhist nationalism, spread by radical Buddhist nationalist groups, like the 969 movement and MaBaTha, and extremist monks. There were multiple cases of anti-Muslim violence across the country the following years, as well as nationalist lobbying for four “race and religion” laws widely seen as targeting Muslims (International Crisis Group, 2012, 2016a; M.J. Walton & Hayward, 2014). After the first