The Regional Implications of the Establishment of a Palestinian State November 2013 Table of Contents Foreword by the Partner Organizations Dr. Reuven Pedatzur, Dr. Samir Hazboun, Gen. (ret.) Mansour Abu Rashid ..... 2 Foreword by the Head of the Delegation of the European Union to the State of Israel H.E. Ambassador Andrew Standley ...................................................................5 Foreword by the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung, Israel Office State Sec. Michael Mertes and Ms. Annika Khano ............................................6 Regional Normalization following a Two-State Solution H.E. Ambassador Hind Khoury, Prof. Asher Susser, Researcher from the Amman Center for Peace & Development ................................................... 8 Economics when Borders are not Barriers: Jordan, Israel, and the Palestinian State Mr. Amjad Qasas, Dr. Avichai Snir, and Researcher from the Amman Center for Peace & Development ....................................................... 40 The Palestinian State and the National Aspirations of the Palestinian Diaspora Dr. Matti Steinberg, Researcher from the Amman Center for Peace & Development, and Researcher from DATA Studies and Consultations ............52 The Political Character of the Palestinian State Prof. Munther Dajani, Dr. Anat Kurz, and Researcher from the Amman Center for Peace & Development ....................................................... 76 Middle-East Regional Security Cooperation following the Establishment of a Palestinian State Brig. Gen. (ret.) Udi Dekel, Researcher from the Amman Center for Peace This project is funded by the & Development, and Researcher from DATA Studies and Consultations ...... 100 European Union and by the Konrad- Adenauer-Stiftung, Israel Office. We are greatly thankful for their Biographies of Researchers ....................................................................... 116 generous support of the project. October, 2013 All rights reserved © Scientific Editor: Dr. Reuven Pedatzur Copy Editing: Mr. Elie Friedman Graphic Design and Printing: Merav-Dascalu Publishing, Ltd. The Regional Implications of the Establishment of a Palestinian State 1 Foreword by the Partner Organizations A short time after his election as prime minister in June 2009, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu gave his famous “Bar-Ilan Speech”, in which he declared that the solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict should be based on the “two states for two peoples” formula. This was the first time that an Israeli prime minister from the Likud party had declared a desire to aspire to a two-state solution. Even Yitzhak Rabin, who signed the Oslo agreements and broke the deadlock in Israeli-Palestinian relations, was reluctant to publicly declare Israel’s willingness to accept the establishment of a Palestinian state alongside it. This underscores the importance that should be ascribed to Netanyahu’s speech, which for the first time since the Six Day War and the occupation of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip that a prime minister from the right wing marked out a clear path for the resolution of the conflict. In doing so, Netanyahu took a giant step beyond what had been agreed upon in the Oslo agreements. And now, despite the fact that since he made the “Bar-Ilan Speech” and the two-state solution has, for all intents and purposes become Israel’s official policy, surprisingly enough, no in-depth scholarly investigation of the implications of this solution has been carried out. Governmental entities have refrained from contending with the implications that the establishment of a Palestinian state would have on the relations between the two states and the throughout region; nor have they prepared an action plan for the period following the establishment of a Palestinian state. No less surprising is the fact that hardly any scholarly studies have been written that analyze the anticipated developments that would ensue from the actual establishment of a Palestinian state. Therefore, we at the S. Daniel Abraham Center for Strategic Dialogue at Netanya Academic College, Data Studies and Consultations, and the Amman Center for Peace and Development have decided to initiate a study, the findings of which are presented here to you in this publication. Our working assumption was that the establishment of a Palestinian state alongside Israel would have far-reaching consequences for numerous and sundry areas, a fact that justifies the effort to carry out an in-depth academic research project, the findings and recommendations of which can help both the Israelis and Palestinians determine policy and consolidate action plans. In addition, we believe that the findings of the research will provide the general public in both countries with information and insights that could impact their positions with respect to the two-state solution. This is based on the assumption that the chances of a successful resolution to the conflict through the establishment of a Palestinian state largely depend on the approach and position of the two societies – Israeli and Palestinian – to this solution. After consolidating the concept underlying this research project, we applied to the European Union to support the project, within the context of the Partnership for Peace Program. After receiving confirmation that the assistance from the European Union had been authorized, the German Konrad Adenauer Stiftung, Israel office also became involved and contributed its part to the funding of the research. Without the help of these two organizations, this research project could not have become a reality. 2 The Regional Implications of the Establishment of a Palestinian State The innovative and unique aspect of this research project lies in the fact that we put together five multinational research teams – each of which included an Israeli, Jordanian and Palestinian researcher – that worked together. In this way, the five chapters of the study were written by 15 scholars, who during the long months of work were often required, within their teams, to contend with differences in approaches and with the need to bridge conflicting narratives and historical resentment. The basic assumptions upon which the study was based determined that the point of departure for the research was that three independent states already exist: Israel, Jordan and Palestine. It was further determined that the agreement to establish a Palestinian state, which was achieved as a working assumption of the study, was based on a combination of the “Clinton parameters,” the Arab Peace Initiative, and the Olmert-Abu Mazen understandings. This meant that a Palestinian state was assumed to already exists, which includes the territories of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, with the possibility of territorial exchanges, whose capital was in East Jerusalem. We chose five areas for the scholars to investigate to see how the existence of a Palestinian state would impact them: 1. The political character of the Palestinian state. 2. Normalization with the states of the region, with an emphasis on Israel-Palestine and Israel-Jordan. 3. The national aspirations of the Palestinian Diaspora. 4. Security and the regional balance of power. 5. The economies of the countries in the region, especially Jordan, Israel and Palestine. The findings of the study show that the establishment of a Palestinian state would have a mainly positive impact on all the five areas investigated. Among other things, the existence of a Palestinian state would contribute to: A. The strengthening of Jordan, whose regime is contending with the negative repercussions of the Arab Spring and the waves of refugees from Syria inundating its territory as a result of the civil war there. B. The neutralization and weakening of the “anti-normalization” movements that draw part of their strength from the absence of a solution to the Palestinian problem. C. The creation of an “anti-radical Islam” axis, of which the majority of the region’s countries would be members. D. The creation of security stability in the region through bilateral and multi-lateral security arrangements to be signed after the establishment of the Palestinian state. E. The economic affluence of Jordan, Palestine and Israel and to economic cooperation with additional countries, such as those in the Gulf countries. F. A boom in tourism to the region. G. A significant rise in the standard of living among the inhabitants of Palestine and Jordan. H. A shift to greater moderation in the positions and political activities of Israeli Arabs. One of the most interesting findings that some of the teams arrived at was that after the establishment of the Palestinian state, one of the reasonable development paths would be the formation of a Jordanian- Palestinian confederation. A further interesting thesis can be found in the chapter that deals with the national aspirations of the Palestinians living in the Diaspora. The existence of a Palestinian state, write the researchers, would The Regional Implications of the Establishment of a Palestinian State 3 lead to a change in the Palestinians’ “refugee” state of mind. The existence of a Palestinian mother state would enable the Palestinians who do not live in it to define themselves as living in a “Diaspora” rather than in “exile.” For years, the issue of the refugees has been presented as the main stumbling block barring the way to a political settlement based on the two-state solution. The researchers demonstrate that contrary to this claim, an agreement regarding a viable state