The Military Balance ISSN: 0459-7222 (Print) 1479-9022 (Online) Journal homepage: https://www.tandfonline.com/loi/tmib20 Chapter Six: Asia To cite this article: (2020) Chapter Six: Asia, The Military Balance, 120:1, 220-323, DOI: 10.1080/04597222.2020.1707967 To link to this article: https://doi.org/10.1080/04597222.2020.1707967 Published online: 13 Feb 2020. Submit your article to this journal View related articles View Crossmark data Full Terms & Conditions of access and use can be found at https://www.tandfonline.com/action/journalInformation?journalCode=tmib20 220 THE MILITARY BALANCE 2020 Chapter Six Asia As China’s navy has expanded in capability and now Meanwhile South Korea continues to remodel its deploys more frequently beyond the first island chain, armed forces, particularly the army, with a reduction maritime surveillance and situational awareness has in the size of its mechanised forces. become a key priority for a number of regional states, Budgetary issues still complicate many Southeast with ageing maritime-patrol aircraft fleets giving way Asian states’ plans to both recapitalise their ageing to a mix of new fixed-wing and uninhabited defence inventories with foreign systems and develop platforms. domestic defence-industrial bases. Singapore remains In the run-up to the 2020 Taiwanese presidential a notable exception, as the city state continues to election, the current government signed a number pursue an ambitious programme of renewal for all of of foreign military sales agreements with the United its services. States for new platforms and weapon systems in an The de facto border between India and Pakistan in attempt to keep up with the modernisation efforts Kashmir remains tense, underscored by continuing of the People’s Liberation Army. Most notable were terrorist activities, an exchange of airstrikes in deals for F-16V combat aircraft and M1A2 Abrams February and the Indian government’s imposition of main battle tanks, both long sought by the Taiwanese direct rule. Both India and Pakistan claimed success military. in the brief February campaign and are now looking North Korea resumed its short-range-missile to improve the capabilities of their respective air testing programme, unveiling several new designs. forces. Asia defence spending, 2019 – top 5 Active military personnel – top 10 (15,000 per unit) United States Global total US$685bn China 19,719,000 2,035,000 India Total Asian spending 1, 455,550 US$429bn North Korea 1,280,000 Pakistan Regional total China 653,800 India South 9,326,000 Korea 599,000 Vietnam 482,000 US$60.5bn Myanmar 406,000 US$181bn Japan South Korea Australia Indonesia 395,500 Thailand 360,850 US$48.6bn US$39.8bn US$25.5bn Sri Lanka 255,000 Asia 221 Regional defence policy and economics 222 ► Armed forces data section 250 ► Arms procurements and deliveries 321 ► India and Pakistan: Republic of Korea: fighter and ground-attack aircraft restructuring mechanised forces 8th 8th 2018 400 319 26th 11th 11th 2019 Modern India 20th Asia Legacy 30th 30th 2019/20 129 227 CAP CAP Division Mechanised infantry Pakistan Legacy: equipment designed during the Cold War period Brigade Armour Modern: equipment designed in the post-Cold War period Selected regional maritime-patrol aircraft and uninhabited aerial vehicles 55 7 4 11 6 22 3 16 6 12 1 In service On order In service On order In service On order In service On order Australia Japan Republic of Korea Taiwan Aircraft: P1 P-3C P-8A UAV: RQ/MQ-4 222 THE MILITARY BALANCE 2020 Asia In 2019, the region’s major military powers South Korea continued efforts to enhance the capabilities of their South Korea’s 2018 defence white paper, released armed forces. At the same time, the United States in January 2019, included well-funded defence maintained its focus on strengthening its regional plans for the period 2019–23. It reiterated Seoul’s military posture, in response to the continuing prioritisation of the Defense Reform 2.0 initiative, challenges from China’s military modernisation, which is intended to create by 2022 smaller but more North Korea’s missile and nuclear-weapons technologically advanced and operationally effective programmes, and Russia’s re-emergence as a security armed forces. The reform and modernisation challenge. programme is intended to help the Republic of Korea to realise the long-established plan (agreed with the United States US in 2007) of assuming wartime operational control The US Department of Defense’s (DoD’s) Indo- of its own forces. An important step towards this Pacific Strategy Report, released in early June, objective was the amalgamation in January of the identified the region as the ‘priority theater’ for ROK Army’s 1st and 3rd Army Commands to form its armed forces. The report reiterated the intent a new Ground Operations Command, which will of the 2018 National Defense Strategy, saying the unify control over the army’s seven regional corps, US would bolster the ‘combat-credible’ posture of an expeditionary corps, a logistics command, and US forces and ‘enhance Joint Force preparedness artillery and intelligence formations. In August 2019, for the most pressing scenarios’. While providing Seoul’s Mid-Term Defense Plan for 2020–24 revealed concrete examples of important new platforms and a projected increase in procurement funding for new systems intended to strengthen the US Indo-Pacific weapons platforms and systems, including a 30,000- Command’s order of battle, the report emphasised ton LPX-II large amphibious-assault ship capable of that the DoD was developing a ‘more dynamic carrying F-35B combat aircraft (yet to be ordered) and distributed presence’, including ‘flexible and and a ‘combined fires’ ship (probably based on the resilient’ logistic support, across the region. It KDD-II destroyer) armed with land-attack cruise also noted the importance of defence and security missiles, as well as additional KDD-III cruisers and cooperation for the United States’ military posture in KSS-III submarines. Also in the plan are new missile- the Indo-Pacific. One potentially important example defence systems, surveillance satellites, uninhabited was US support for future work by Australia to aerial vehicles (UAVs), anti-submarine-warfare rebuild the naval base at Lombrum on Papua New (ASW) helicopters and electromagnetic-pulse strike Guinea’s Manus Island. weapons. However, regional allies were not always prepared While Defense Reform 2.0 and the Mid-Term automatically to accommodate US strategic interests. Defense Plan indicated that the ROK’s defence This was evident in August 2019 when, following modernisation was broadly following a well- Washington’s withdrawal from the Intermediate- established trajectory, the thinking behind Seoul’s range Nuclear Forces Treaty, Secretary of Defense defence policy has undergone important changes Mark Esper said that to counter China’s own under the administration of President Moon Jae-in, expanding missile force he was in favour of stationing who took office in 2017. Crucially, Moon and his US land-based intermediate-range conventional administration embarked in 2018 on a path of missiles in the region within months. The response to diplomatic reconciliation as a means of managing this from key allies Australia, Japan and South Korea the threat posed by North Korea. Moon’s diplomacy was unenthusiastic. Nevertheless, their own defence facilitated the tentative peace process involving programmes all indicate these countries’ intent to Pyongyang and the US administration (which saw a boost their own security in the face of intensifying second summit between US President Donald Trump regional challenges. and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in Hanoi in Asia 223 February 2019, and then a meeting at the Korean Taiwan Demilitarized Zone in June), and is linked to domestic China’s continuing military modernisation spurred politics in South Korea, where public opinion broadly reciprocal efforts not only by the US and Japan but favours detente with the North. Reflecting this also Taiwan, where since 2016 the government led approach, although the 2018 South Korean defence by President Tsai Ing-wen has been trying to find white paper described Pyongyang’s nuclear-weapons ways of mitigating the continuing shift in the military programme as a threat to peace and stability on the balance across the Taiwan Strait in China’s favour. Korean Peninsula, it no longer referred to North Taipei’s latest biennial National Defense Report, Korea itself as an ‘enemy’, instead emphasising the released in September 2019, emphasised Taiwan’s potential for military confidence-building and arms support for the US Indo-Pacific Strategy, as well as control and noting other transnational threats. its own security cooperation with US allies in the However, by September 2019, the signs from region. The report also itemised arms sales agreed Pyongyang were no longer encouraging. In early with the US over the previous two years, including August 2019, and apparently in protest at the US– M1A2T Abrams main battle tanks, BGM-71 TOW and ROK command-post training drill (which, according FGM-148 Javelin anti-tank missiles, and FIM-92 Stinger to reports, was originally intended to be called the surface-to-air missiles. More strategically important, 19-2 Dong Maeng exercise), the North Korean regime though, was the US administration’s August 2019 launched what were thought to be two short-range agreement (subject to congressional approval) to sell ballistic missiles into the Sea of Japan and dismissed Taiwan 66 F-16C/D Block 70 combat aircraft. These Moon’s call for further inter-Korean talks. The aircraft will be equipped with conformal fuel tanks, missile launches were the latest in a series that has allowing them significantly extended operational Asia also included multiple-rocket-launcher tests since range compared to Taiwan’s F-16A/Bs (in service May 2019.