Riskline / Country Report / 29 August 2021 CUBA Overall risk level Extreme Defer non-essential travel Extremely dangerous and presents unpredic- table security risks Chaotic; travel impossible Overview Emergency Numbers Medical 104 Upcoming Events There are no upcoming events scheduled Riskline / Country Report / 29 August 2021 / Cuba 2 Travel Advisories Moderate risk: Nationwide shortage of basic goods and supplies Anticipate possible disruptions for travel across the island, including Havana, as well as related protests in the medium-term because of shortages and rationing of basic food items, medicine, water, electricity and petrol. After two decades of relative food and utilities stability fueled by cheap Venezuelan oil, shortages of food, medicine, personal hygiene items, water, electricity and petrol have once again become a serious daily problem for millions of Cubans since the beginning of 2019, with hours-long queues and scuffles at markets reported across the island. Economic decline – 11 percent in 2020 – and rationing measures have been further enforced due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. As part of a major reform to a state-controlled economy, private businesses were allowed to operate in most sectors on 7 February, and restrictions were further eased in July when private businesses with up to 100 employees were allowed to operate in the wake of mass anti-government protests. In January 2020, the government announced rationing measures on liquefied gas, while rationing of electricity was announced earlier in July 2019, with power outages lasting up to 28 hours reported in Havana, Pinar del Río, Artemisa, Matanzas, Cienfuegos, Villa Clara, Sancti Spíritus, Las Tunas, Holguín and Santiago de Cuba. Shortages and economic conditions have triggered protests in Havana and Santa Clara since March 2019 – including in the San Isidro neighbourhood of the capital on 4 April 2021, while public transport services have been severely affected due to a scarcity of fuel, including in Guantánamo and Santiago de Cuba provinces, but also in Havana, Sancti Spíritus and Villa Clara provinces. Earlier, in May 2019, the government announced nationwide rationing of staple products such as eggs, rice, beans, chicken, cooking oil, bread and soap, amid shortages it blames on the United States (US) trade embargo and hoarders. On 1 July 2019, the government increased the monthly minimum salary, in response to increasing living costs, while in October 2019 reforms were announced to allow residents to open bank accounts in foreign currencies and purchase with foreign currency in stores in Havana and Santiago de Cuba. Riskline / Country Report / 29 August 2021 / Cuba 3 In October 2020, authorities announced that the rationing book would be discontinued after a long-due monetary unification phase 1 has been concluded. The long-due monetary unification will leave the Cuban peso (CUP) as the only local currency, after the convertible peso (CUC) will be removed from the market, beginning from 1 January, with a six month grace period. The announcement follows controversial measures such as the opening of supermarkets and shops where payments could only be done in CUC, foreign currency or a card. The monetary unification will be accompanied by wage and pension reforms, although banks are expected to respect savings in both local and foreign currency accounts. The scheme was signed into law on 1 January 2021 with the price of basic goods set to soar as a result, including the price of bread by a magnitude of four. Due to these shortages among a slew of other issues, massive anti-government protests erupted in cities nationwide on 11-14 July that resulted in at least one death and thousands of arrests. In August, the government introduced new regulations on the use of social media and the internet, making inciting acts "that alter public order" a crime. Since late September 2019, increased Venezuelan crude and fuel shipments have eased the fuel shortage somewhat, although diesel remains elusive. However, an overall reduction in imported oil from Venezuela, the end of a medical services deal with Brazil and poor performances in important economic sectors including nickel mining, sugar and tourism have also left Cuba heavily indebted to the suppliers of food and food processing equipment, including those in the US and Brazil, which no longer supply Cuba. COVID-19 outbreak related restrictions have further limited income from tourism sector, while authorities have added more products to the ration book and launched online shopping and delivery in a bid to avoid hours-long lines form outside of shops, potentially turning into a source of infection and spread of the virus. In many cases, however, customers have received their online orders delayed or incomplete. The US administration also banned all charter flights between US and Cuba, except to Havana, initially for 60 days from 10 January 2020, which was further extended due to COVID-19 travel restrictions. The ban followed an earlier ban of commercial flights between the two countries in October 2019, when the Cubana de Aviación airline also suspended national and international flights following the termination of two aircraft lease contracts due to sanctions. Western Union was forced to close their 407 offices in the country after sanctions were imposed by the Donald Trump Riskline / Country Report / 29 August 2021 / Cuba 4 administration which also restored Cuba to a list of state sponsors of terrorism in January 2019. US President Joe Biden has, however, promised to renew diplomatic talks and reverse some of the sanctions on remittances which mount around USD2 to 3 billion annually being the third biggest source of income after industry and tourism, as well as on travel between the US and Cuba. Officials have warned that more austere times are yet to come; as the current situation is directly linked to the crisis in Venezuela, a further escalation of rationing, shortages and related protests can be expected in the medium-term. Anticipate possible disruptions for travel across the island, including Havana, as well as related protests because of increasing shortages and rationing measures. Avoid all large public gatherings. Exercise caution around regular supermarkets, grocery stores or food-storage facilities where looting and unrest can erupt quickly and without warning. Residents and expatriates are advised to store 7.6 to 11 litres (two to three gallons) of water per person per day for the days when the water supply is curtailed. Ensure a sufficient supply of essential food and personal hygiene items and bottled water at all times as well as hotel water supplies prior to travel. Avoid eating perishable items, particularly fruit and vegetables that are unwashed and implement advanced hygiene. Maintain a full tank of fuel in vehicles and equipment, where possible, in the event of a protracted fuel shortage. Track local media for situational updates. Riskline / Country Report / 29 August 2021 / Cuba 5 Summary Cuba is an Extreme Risk destination: defer non-essential travel. Extreme Risk locations are extremely dangerous and present unpredictable security risks. Travel, if possible, is likely to be chaotic. Covid-19 Extreme Risk Authorities have implemented proactive tracking and isolation measures, with national Abdala y Soberana 2 vaccines expected to ease high infection rates. However, the healthcare system is under great pressure amid a record-high uptick in COVID-19 infections due to a lack of medical supplies, as of early August. A "new normality" phase is in place but Havana and multiple other provinces reverted into tighter restrictions. Regular and charter flights are allowed entry to the country. Political Instability Moderate Risk The Cuban socialist republic continues to undergo an inevitable process of major economic change, but progressive reforms are occurring at a slow pace amid a trade embargo and dependence on Venezuelan aid and fuel subsidies. President Miguel Díaz-Canel was sworn into office in April 2018, marking the end of a nearly 60-year rule of the Castro brothers, while a new Constitution approved in February 2019 legalised private property and created the role of Prime Minister but retained a one- party system. Conflict Moderate Risk The island maintains ties with governments in the region, but bilateral relationship with the United States (US) deteriorated during the Donald Trump administration due to travel restrictions and a trade embargo to pressure Cuba to reform and stop supporting Venezuela's President Nicolás Maduro. Armed conflict is, however, unlikely. Cuba maintains a large security apparatus for the stated purpose of suppressing subversive domestic activities. Riskline / Country Report / 29 August 2021 / Cuba 6 Terrorism Low Risk Cuba does not have a recent history of terrorist-related activity either at home or abroad, and was removed from the US State Department list of state sponsors of terrorism in May 2015. The Cuban intelligence services are effective, far-reaching and sophisticated, making Cuba a difficult environment for terrorists to operate in. Unrest Moderate Risk The government bans opposition political activity; there is a high level of social control, restrictions on freedom of speech and assembly and a strong police presence. Demonstrations are therefore rare, but generally peaceful protests over specific issues, such as LGBT rights or political prisoners, have been held in Havana, frequently leading to arrests. The potential for civil unrest