Market Watch Thursday, October 21, 2010 www.sekeryatirim.com.tr Agenda 18 Monday 19 Tuesday 20 Wednesday 21 Thursday 22 Friday • US, September industrial • US, September hous- • Treasury to pay down • US, jobless claims. • N/A production figures. ing starts figures. TRY 1.84bn (USD • CBRT to announce 1.3bn) in debt. results of October’s second survey of expec- tation. Outlook: Volume (mn TRY) ISE - 100 Good morning! The ISE-100 declined 0.68% to 69,365 with a volume of TRY 2bn on Wednesday, trading between 70,355 (+0.74%) and 69,185 (- 0.94%). Although the index attempted to test the 70k-territory, domestic 5.000 70.458 72.000 70.101 69.839 politics reminded everyone that silence from the political front cannot be 69.226 69.365 taken for granted. The chief prosecutor of the Supreme Court of Appeals 4.000 70.000 issued a sharp warning to government institutions with regards to the use of the Islamic headscarf in universities, slightly triggering pessimistic 3.000 68.000 sentiments in the market. The index was already in the mood of rehearsing possible future corrections with recent hesitations, and the prosecutor’s 2.000 66.000 statement could act as a catalyst for the process. As domestic 3.104 2.715 1.000 2.563 64.000 2.373 developments caught investors’ attention, optimism returned to US markets 2.293 with encouraging 3Q10 financials, although Asia markets are reluctant to 0 62.000 follow suit this morning. Today, we expect an opening with a negative bias, but the index may eventually attempt to cross into 70k. Technically, 69,700 14-Oct 15-Oct 18-Oct 19-Oct 20-Oct and 70,100 are our respective resistance levels whilst 69,000 and 68,700 are the primary and secondary support levels. Indices (TRY) Previous Last Chg. YTD ISE-100 69.839 69.365 -0,68% 31,31% Money Market: ISE-30 88.857 88.122 -0,83% 31,54% The domestic money markets focused on US earnings releases yesterday, ISE-Financial 109.333 108.079 -1,15% 35,50% while an announcement by the chief prosecutor of the Supreme Court of ISE-Industrial 50.419 50.348 -0,14% 32,85% Appeals made no major impact on investor sentiments. The benchmark ISE-Services 43.197 43.353 0,36% 19,98% bond rate fluctuated in a very narrow band yesterday starting the day at 7.71%, and touching 7.67% on the downside. The benchmark bond closed Advances Declines Most Active the day at 7.69%. On the currency front, USD/TRY started the day at 1.4285 Stocks (%) Stocks (%) Stocks Vol (TR) with the Dollar’s seeing some losses against major currencies after positive SANKO 11,93 VKFRS -10,17 GARAN 297.357.564 earnings releases, closing the day at 1.4235. The major domestic data re- ADNAC 7,35 AVRSY -8,46 ISCTR 281.219.836 lease today will be the CBRT’s 2nd Survey of Expectation for October. KLMSN 6,67 ARSAN -5,69 ARCLK 172.143.679 MNDRS 6,06 YKFIN -5,41 PETKM 127.745.509 Domestic Headlines: KRSTL 6,03 BOYNR -3,63 VAKBN 110.436.072 The chief prosecutor of the Supreme Court of Appeals, Abdurrahman Yal- cinkaya, issued a warning to the Council of Higher Education regarding the Money Market Previous Last Pr. Mn YTD permissibility of allowing headscarves at higher educational institutions, O/N Repo (%) 7,15 7,06 6,62 6,66 highlighting that it constituted a violation of the principle of secularism and Euro Bond (30 year, $) 182,25 180,50 164,75 161,50 that regulations within public law cannot be based upon religious belief. Bond (Benchmark, %) 7,71 7,70 8,11 8,80 Yalcinkaya also criticized statements made by political parties saying they were a “violation of the state’s basic principles of the rule of law, secularism Currency Previous Last Chg. YTD and equality.” On the other hand, the ruling Justice and Development Party US$ 1,4305 1,4265 -0,28% -4,74% (AK Party) claimed that the announcement amounted to judicial intervention Euro 1,9745 1,985 0,53% -7,63% in legislative affairs in Turkey. Euro/Dolar 1,3729 1,3931 1,47% -2,68% Commodity Previous Last Chg. YTD We see the recent flare in tensions over the headscarf issue to have a mar- Oil (Brent spot, $) 82,9 82,2 -0,86% 6,19% ginal possibility of resulting in a new closure case against the AK Party. Due to changes made to the structure of the Constitutional Court following the Oil (NYMEX future, $) 79,5 80,1 0,75% 0,72% referendum, such a closure case would not result in closure. Gold (Ounce, $) 1.331,6 1.340,1 0,64% 22,14% Silver (XAG, $) 23,4 23,8 1,64% 41,12% According to Treasury data, central government debt stock declined Şeker Funds Previous Last* Chg. YTD by 0.6% MoM to TRY 460.7bn in September. While domestic debt remained Şekerbank A T. Variable 0,289332 0,290006 0,23% 11,38% almost unchanged at TRY 348bn, external debt fell by 2.6% over the previous month to TRY 113bn. By September, 75% of central government Şekerbank B T. Bond&Bill 0,018816 0,018818 0,01% 4,31% debt was to domestic lenders, while 56% was in fixed rate debt instruments. Şekerbank B T. Liquid 0,733672 0,733747 0,01% 2,38% In January, the share of fixed rate instruments was at 54%. Şeker Yat. B T. Variable 0,017154 0,017153 -0,01% 3,47% Şeker Yat. B T. Gold 0,012490 0,012366 -0,99% 11,70% * Prices of 21-Oct-10 Market Watch Thursday, October 21, 2010 www.sekeryatirim.com.tr World Indices Company News: America Previous Last Chg. YTD Aselsan (ASELS.TI, Outperform) announced signing a subcontracting agreement with USA-based Raytheon relating to air and missile defense Dow Jones (US) 10.979 11.108 1,18% 6,52% systems which will be based in the United Arab Emirates. The total amount Nasdaq (US) 2.437 2.457 0,84% 8,30% of the agreement stands at USD 12mn and the first delivery will be made in S&P 500 (US) 1.166 1.178 1,05% 5,66% May 2011 to Raytheon. The project is expected to be completed by Decem- Bovespa (Brasil) 69.864 70.405 0,77% 2,65% ber 2011. Merval (Argentina) 2.315 2.315 0,00% -0,27% Mexico Bolsa (Mexico) 34.452 34.880 1,24% 8,59% Dogan Holding (DOHOL.TI; N/R) decided to re-start negotiations with Europe Previous Last Chg. YTD OMV Aktiengesellschaft for the sale of Petrol Ofisi (PTOFS.TI; N/R) shares Dax (Germany) 6.491 6.525 0,52% 9,52% which was halted on November 18, 2010. Dogan Holding and OMV have a FTSE 100 (UK) 5.704 5.729 0,44% 5,84% 54.17% and 41.58% share in Petrol Ofisi respectively. CAC 40 (France) 3.807 3.828 0,55% -2,75% WSE WIG (Poland) 45.290 45.384 0,21% 13,50% Finansbank (FINBN.TI; N/C) denoted that the pre-emptive rights regarding Prague (Czech Republic) 1.137 1.132 -0,42% 1,29% its capital increase to TRY 2.2bn via a 33.08% rights and 0.25% bonus Budapest (Hungary) 23.477 23.628 0,64% 11,31% issue would be used between October 22 and November 5, 2010. RTSI (Rusya) 1.560 1.562 0,14% 8,12% Asia/Africa Previous Last Chg. YTD Autonomy Master Fund Ltd sold 3mn share of Is REIT (ISGYO.TI; Outper- Nikkei (Japan) 9.539 9.382 -1,65% -11,04% form) on October 19, 2010 at a price range of TRY 1.89-1.91. The Fund’s Hang Seng (Hong Kong) 23.764 23.557 -0,87% 7,70% share in Is REIT declined to 4.45% from 5.12% with this transaction. Shanghai Comp. (China) 3.002 3.004 0,07% -8,34% KOSPI (South Korea) 1.857 1.870 0,71% 11,15% Karsan (KARSN.TI; N/R) denied the news that the company is the leading JSE Africa All Shr.(S.Africa) 30.003 30.081 0,26% 8,73% contender among competitors GM and Ford in New York's Taxi & Limousine Commission project. Karsan stated that the process continues. Turkdex (Set. Price) Previous Last Chg. YTD INX100 (OCTOBER 10) 70,325 69,900 -0,60% 32,64% Trakya Cam (TRKCM.TI, Outperform) announced that cold repair works at INX30 (OCTOBER 10) 89,300 88,400 -1,01% 32,24% its Luleburgaz plant has completed and the plant is now operational. IR365 (OCTOBER 10) 89,460 89,460 0,00% 0,40% USD (OCTOBER 10) 1,432 1,429 -0,17% -4,38% Tupras (TUPRS.TI; Market Perform) announced yesterday that its tax EURO (OCTOBER 10) 1,979 1,983 0,20% -7,90% audit reports have been sent to the company before the assessment dead- COTTON (OCTOBER 10) 4,120 4,120 0,00% 58,46% line of November 5, 2010. Tupras further noted that the Ministry of Finance WHEAT (DECEMBER 10) 0,663 0,663 0,00% 16,52% charged the company with a total of TRY 605.4mn (including TRY 363.4mn GOLD (OCTOBER 10) 61,555 61,205 -0,57% 16,45% tax fine) stemming from its 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008 and 2009 fiscal records. A default interest would be calculated from the original tax, the company Portfolio Inclusio Inclusio Last Chg.ISE noted.