GLOBSEC Trends 2020 CENTRAL EUROPE EASTERN EUROPE & WESTERN BALKANS AT THE TIMES OF PANDEMIC www.globsec.org Authors Dominika Hajdu Daniel Milo Research Fellow Senior Adviser Katarína Klingová Miroslava Sawiris Senior Research Fellow Research Fellow Democracy & Resilience Programme Methodology The outcomes and findings of this The inputs for country-specific context report are based on public opinion and analysis were completed by our poll surveys carried out in September project partners: and October 2020 on a representative sample of the population in nine Martin Vladimirov and Ruslan Stefanov, countries: Bulgaria, Czechia, Hungary, Center for the Study of Democracy, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Bulgaria Poland, Romania, Serbia and Slovakia. The surveys were conducted on a Jonáš Syrovátka, Prague Security sample of 1000 respondents using Studies Institute (PSSI), Czechia stratified multistage random sampling in the form of computer-assisted Péter Krekó, Bulcsú Hunyadi, and telephone interviewing (CATI) due Patrik Szicherle, Political Capital to COVID-19 pandemic restrictions. Institute, Hungary In all countries, the profiles of the respondents were representative of Rufin Zamfir, GlobalFocus Centre, the country according to gender, age, Romania education, place of residence and size of settlement. Ilija Djugumanov, ATA-Macedonia, North Macedonia For the purposes of graphical data visualisation, the results were rounded Center for Democratic Transition, to full numbers. To improve the Montenegro readers’ experience, the responses in closed questions with a scale were Jovana Bogosavljević and Igor generalised. For example, a question Novaković, International and Security with options definitely agree/ rather Affairs Centre, Serbia agree/ rather disagree /definitely disagree was merged to agree / Zofia Lutkiewicz, Political disagree. Accountability Foundation, Poland CONTENTS Contents PAGE 06 PAGE 30 Executive summary NATO PAGE 08 PAGE 36 Country highlights United States and Russia PAGE 12 PAGE 48 COVID-19 China PAGE 20 PAGE 52 East or West? Democracy & polarisation PAGE 24 European Union PAGE 62 Connecting the dots GLOBSEC Trends 2020 Trends GLOBSEC 3 Introduction Poland Czechia Slovakia Hungary Romania Serbia Bulgaria Montenegro North Macedonia Countries surveyed GLOBSEC Trends 2020 Trends GLOBSEC 4 INTRODUCTION Introduction concept. But at the same time, many GLOBSEC finds that “clear pro- people oppose the liberal social Western orientation and messaging,” values that typically characterise the as in Slovakia, is a powerful tool. Western democratic system. The Such messaging can point out that European Union has long assumed ambivalence toward authoritarianism that when democracy exists, liberal and corruption is morally bankrupt. values inevitably follow. But it now Government and non-government finds growing numbers of citizens bent actors must recognize that conspiracy on deploying democratically elected theories and false facts are highly institutions as a weapon against dangerous even when they occur immigrants, domestic minorities and the among populations that generally LGBT+ community. support Western institutions. Similar tendencies exist in Western Strategic communication literally saves Europe and the United States. But lives in the time of COVID-19. When in Central and Eastern Europe, they a non-trivial part of the population threaten democracy itself. Using believes COVID-19 is a plot to Dear reader, resistance to liberal values as a wedge, manipulate populations worldwide, it authoritarian forces seek to pull is obvious how much effort is needed What is democracy? Is it, above down the entire democratic project. to reinforce not only democracy, but all, institutions – representative Those who would defend democracy rational thought. government, rule of law, freedom of must find a way to show respect and religion and assembly? Or is it just as understanding to those who feel their Many CEE citizens believe the United much a system of values – compassion, lives and countries are changing just States is an important guarantor of respect for people who are different, too fast, while standing up for the their security -- but that it should act and a commitment to responsible kindness, reason and decency that are mainly in the framework of NATO, speech and true facts? In Central hallmarks of true democracy. where Europeans also have a strong and Eastern Europe, these are key voice. This is understandable but also questions today. The autocratic rulers of Sadly, the report finds many citizens reflects substantial scepticism about communist times have been replaced continue to believe in conspiracy overall US intentions and activities. by leaders who are called to reflect theories and other destructive With new leadership in Washington the will of the governed. But the will narratives. This is disturbing in the and the world hopefully emerging from of the governed may not be pretty. best of times. But in the past year its preoccupation with COVID-19, the People may willingly believe conspiracy such theories have amounted to United States has an opportunity to theories. They may treat with hostility biological warfare, killing people by re-introduce itself to CEE citizens. Its anyone they consider an outsider. They encouraging them to be careless goal should be to present the United may feel no commitment to the greater about exposure to COVID-19. If such States as a reliable, compassionate and good of society, opting instead to grab disinformation frightens people into respectful guarantor of the democratic whatever they can for themselves. Even refusing vaccinations, the death toll future that most CEE citizens have respectable politicians, struggling to from the pandemic could be much resolutely chosen. win elections and negotiate knife- worse. GLOBSEC found only 37 percent edge coalitions, may feel they must of CEE citizens are ready to take the accommodate even odious forces for vaccine now. Thomas Kent the sake of political survival. Adjunct Associate Professor of We can take a series of steps to International and Public Affairs, Harriman GLOBSEC Trends 2020 throws these advance democracy in the face of Institute, Columbia University Senior Fellow, Jamestown Foundation issues into sharp relief. It shows strong the forces that threaten it. The first is Associate Fellow, GLOBSEC support in Central and Eastern Europe to build a coherent narrative about for democracy as an institutional what being part of the West means. 2020 Trends GLOBSEC 5 Executive Summary Executive EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 2020 has been enveloped by the environment, we assessed the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Its prevalence of different polarising profound global impact is likely narratives and their impact on to be the subject of research for attitudes towards liberal democracy many years to come. Against and international cooperation. While this backdrop, in this report, we both democracy and international present current perceptions in the cooperation have suffered setbacks Central and Eastern European and in recent years, public perceptions Western Balkan regions towards from the nine surveyed countries a range of political topics. The suggest they have not been report, in particular, provides vanquished yet. answers to urgent public health concerns including the willingness of societies to get vaccinated against COVID-19 and proneness to believing COVID-19 related conspiracy theories. We also scrutinise how the European Union, NATO and major powers including the United States, China and Russia are perceived in the region and whether their standing has improved or suffered setbacks in the wake of the pandemic. And as disinformation campaigns and information chaos continue GLOBSEC Trends 2020 Trends GLOBSEC to ravage our information 6 THESE ARE OUR KEY FINDINGS Summary Executive COVID-19 PRO-RUSSIAN / VACCINATION RUSSIA-ORIGINATING NARRATIVES GOING Trust in public authorities corresponds with people’s willingness to be vaccinated VIRAL against COVID-19. Only 37% of respondents, on average, are inclined to get a COVID-19 At 72%, the proportion of those who support vaccine but this figure rises to 53% among NATO membership in the region is robust. those who trust their public authorities. Nearly 4 in 10 people living in NATO member countries in the region, nonetheless, believe that NATO is an aggressive tool of the US and/or that NATO is provoking Russia by establishing military bases in the country’s vicinity. EU REPRESENTING A MORE PROMISING FUTURE DEMOCRATIC A total of 71% of respondents believe that EU membership will lead to better life prospects PARADOX for future generations and a majority of respondents in seven of nine countries do not The vast majority of people in the region think that the EU is destroying their country’s agree that democracy, as a system based on traditional values and identity. That said, the equality, human rights, fundamental freedoms notion that an “EU dictate” is at play has and rule of law, is good for their country (78%). gained widespread traction. However, a considerable share of respondents perceive democracy to be a threat when it is described as liberal (41%). CHINA AND RUSSIA NOT SEEN AS THREATS The perception that China and Russia are threats is currently low, declining over the past year. In numerous surveyed countries, in fact, respondents rather tended to perceive Russia and/or China as key strategic partners for their respective countries. GLOBSEC Trends 2020 Trends GLOBSEC 7 East-West Country highlights