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Address, telephone numbers, and hours are as follows: National Energy Information Center, EI-231 Energy Information Administration Forrestal Building, Room 1F-048 Washington, DC 20585 (202)586-8800 Internet E-Mail: [email protected] TTY: For people who are deaf or hard of hearing: (202)586-1181 9 a.m. to 5 p.m., eastern time, M-F Cover Photo The Bugey plant has five operating units with a combined capacity of 4.2 net gigazvatts. Photo Credit Appendix C: TU Services, Comanche Peak Released for Printing: Decembers, 1994 ftirj Printed with soy ink on recycled pafier GPO Stock No. 061 -003-00883-6 ^^ DOE/EIA-0436(94) Distribution Category UC-950 World Nuclear Outlook 1994 December 1994 Contains information on commercial nuclear capacity, fuel requirements, spent fuel and the uranium market. Energy Information Administration Office of Coal, Nuclear, Electric and Alternate Fuels U.S. Department of Energy Washington, DC 20585 This report was prepared by the Energy Information Administration, the independent statistical and analytical agency within the Department of Energy. The information contained herein should not be construed as advocating or reflecting any policy position of the Department of Energy or of any other organization. <# DISTRIBUTION OF THIS DOCUMENT IS UNLIMITED Contacts This report was prepared in the Office of Coal, Nuclear, tions should be referred to William Liggett (202/254- Electric and Alternate Fuels by the Analysis and 5508), project manager; Ercan Tukenmez (202/254-5544), Systems Division. General information regarding this uranium market model forecasts and operation; Diane publication may be obtained from John Geidl (202/254- Jackson (202/254-5536), International Nuclear Model 5570), Director, Office of Coal, Nuclear, Electric and forecasts; S. Victoria Krusiewski (202/254-5538), Alternate Fuels; Robert M. Schnapp (202/254-5392), uranium marketing activities; Kenneth Chuck Wade Director, Analysis and Systems Division; Betsy O'Brien (202/254-5514), nuclear capacity status and projections; (202/254-5490), Chief of the Supply Analysis Branch; or or Michelle Bowles (202/254-5378), nuclear capacity Dr. Z.D. Nikodem (202/254-5550), Chief of the Energy status and projections. Resources Assessment Branch. Detailed technical ques• ii Energy Information Administration/ World Nuclear Outlook 1994 DISCLAIMER This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States Government Neither die United States Government nor any agency thereof, nor any of their employees, make any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liabili• ty or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information, appa• ratus, product, or process disclosed, or represents mat its use would not infringe privately owned rights. Reference herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United States Government or any agency thereof. The views and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessar• ily state or reflect those of the United States Government or any agency thereof. DISCLAIMER Portions of this document may be illegible electronic image products. Images are produced from the best available original document. Preface Section 205(a)(2) of the Department of Energy Organ• Long-term nuclear capacity projections used for the ization Act of 1977 (Public Law 95-91) requires the High Case scenario were obtained from the Office of Administrator of the Energy Information Administra• Integrated Analysis and Forecasting, Energy Informa• tion (EIA) to carry out a central, comprehensive, and tion Administration. Some of these projections were unified energy data information program that will col• developed using the World Integrated Nuclear Evalua• lect, evaluate, assemble, analyze, and disseminate data tion System (WINES) model. The model is documented and information relevant to energy resources, reserves, in Model Documentation of the World Integrated Nuclear production, demand, technology, and related economic Evaluation System, Volumes I, II, and III (DOE/EI- and statistical information. M049). The International Nuclear Model PC version (PCINM) used for calculating the electricity generation As part of the EIA program to provide energy informa-^ values and fuel cycle requirements in this report, is tion, this analysis report presents the current status and A documented in the International Nuclear Model projections through 2010 of nuclear capacity, genera• Personal Computer Model Documentation. The Ura• tion, and fuel cycle requirements for all countries in the | nium Market Model (UMM) was used to project world using nuclear power to generate electricity for uranium prices, production, imports and inventories. Its commercial use. It also contains information and ! documentation can be found in Model Documentation of forecasts of developments in the uranium market. / the Uranium Market Model (prepared by the Oak Ridge Long-term projections of U.S. nuclear capacity, genera• National Laboratory). tion, and spent fuel discharges for three different / scenarios through 2040 are developed for the Depart- ; The legislation that created the EIA vested the organ• ment of Energy's Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste ization with an element of statutory independence. The Management (OCRWM). In turn, the OCRWM provides y EIA does not take positions on policy questions. Its partial funding for preparation of this report. The pro--7 responsibility is to provide timely, high-quality infor• jections of uranium requirements are provided to the ./ mation and to perform objective, credible analyses in Organization for Economic Cooperation and Develop-^ support of deliberations by both public and private ment (OECD) for preparation of the Nuclear Energy decisionmakers. Accordingly, this report does not pur• Agency/OECD report, Summary of 'Nuclear Power and port to represent the policy positions of the U.S. Fuel Cycle Data in OECD Member Countries. Department of Energy or the Administration. This report was formerly published as 'World Nuclear Capacity and Fuel Cycle Requirements." Energy Information Administration/ World Nuclear Outlook 1994 m Contents page Executive Summary ix 1. Introduction 1 2. Nuclear Capacity Status and Projections 3 World Nuclear Power 3 Regional Developments and Projections 7 3. Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Uranium Market Developments 21 Nuclear Fuel Requirements 21 Uranium Market Developments 26 Commercial Spent Fuel 34 Status of the U.S. Civilian Nuclear Waste Program 34 4. Operating and Maintenance Costs for Nuclear Power Plants in the United States 39 Introduction 39 Cost Reporting Conventions and Data Sources 39 Trends and Variations in Nuclear O&M Costs 40 Reasons for Increases in O&M Costs 40 Efforts to Reduce O&M Costs 43 Statistical Analysis of O&M Costs for U.S. Nuclear Power Plants 45 Capacity Factors of U.S. Nuclear Power Plants 48 5. Comparison With Other Projections 53 Comparison of Actual versus EIA Forecasts 53 Comparison With Last Year's EIA Report 54 Comparison With Other Reports 56 Comparison to Energy Resources International 58 Comparison to Uranium Institute 58 Comparison to Nuclear Assurance Corporation 58 Summary 59 Appendices A. Nuclear Power Technology and the Nuclear Fuel Cycle 61 B. The Analysis Systems 67 C World Nuclear Units Operable as of December 31,1993 81 D. World Nuclear Generating Units in the Construction Pipeline as of December 31,1993 97 E. Long-Term Projections of Capacity, Generation, and Spent Fuel in the United States, 1994 Through 2040 103 F. World Nuclear Fuel Cycle Facilities That Prepare Fuel for Nuclear Power Plants 109 G. Uncertainties in the U.S. Uranium Market . 113 H. U.S. Customary Units of Measurement, International System of Units (SI), and Selected Data Tables and SI Metric Units 121 Glossary 127 Energy Information Administration/ World Nuclear Outlook 1994 v Tables pJlge 1. Operable Nuclear Power Plant Statistics, 1992 and 1993 4 2. Status of Commercial Nuclear Generating Units in the Construction Pipeline as of December 31, 1993 6 3. 1993 Operable Nuclear Capacities and Projected Capacities for 1995, 2000, 2005, and 2010 8 4. U.S. Nuclear Capacity and Generation as of December 31, 1993, by Federal Region 9 5. Power Plant Statistics for the United States, 1993 9 6. Power Plant Statistics for Canada, 1993 11 7. Power Plant Statistics for the Western Europe Region, 1993 12 8. Power Plant Statistics for the Eastern Europe Region, 1993 14 9. Power Plant Statistics for the Far East Region, 1993 16 10. Power Plant Statistics for the Other Region, 1993 18 11. Projected