Ecosystem-based Adaptation in Africa Rationale, Pathways, and Cost Estimates Tahia Devisscher April, 2010 Sectoral Report for the AdaptCost Study 1 Table of Contents Introduction......................................................................................................................... 3 1. Ecosystem-based Adaptation.......................................................................................... 3 1.1 What is Ecosystem-based Adaptation?..................................................................... 3 1.2 Why Ecosystem-based Adaptation? ......................................................................... 4 1.3 How to Measure the Adaptation Benefits and Costs of EbA?.................................. 5 1.4 The Unknowns........................................................................................................ 10 2. Effects of Climate Change on African Ecosystems...................................................... 14 2.1 African Ecosystems and Biodiversity..................................................................... 14 2.2 Present and Future Climate in Africa...................................................................... 17 2.3 Possible Impacts of Climate Change on Ecosystems ............................................. 19 2.3.1 Climate Change Effects on Ecosystems at the Continental Level................... 20 2.3.2 Economic Impacts of Climate Change on African Protected Areas: An Example of Ecosystem Services Loss....................................................................... 23 2.4 Ecosystem Responses to Climate Change .............................................................. 24 2.5 Current Conservation Practices in the Face of Future Global Changes.................. 27 3. Ecosystem-based Adaptation Pathways........................................................................ 29 3.1 Dynamic Landscape of EbA Pathways................................................................... 29 3.2 EbA Pathways: Inter-linked Strategies ................................................................... 31 Target Species Conservation Strategies.................................................................... 33 Ecosystem Management Strategies........................................................................... 35 Flexible Mechanisms to Enable EbA........................................................................ 46 Means and Adaptive Processes that Enable EbA ..................................................... 54 4. Costs of Ecosystem-based Adaptation in Africa .......................................................... 60 4.1 Challenges in Assessing EbA Costs ....................................................................... 60 4.2 “Top-Down”: Financial Flow Estimates................................................................. 62 4.2.1 Limitations ....................................................................................................... 62 4.2.2 Africa-wide Estimates...................................................................................... 64 4.3 “Bottom-Up”: EbA Strategies................................................................................. 68 4.3.1 Limitations ....................................................................................................... 68 4.3.2 Current Initiatives ............................................................................................ 71 4.3.3 Potentialities: Up-scaling Agroforestry Efforts ............................................... 74 4.4 Estimating EbA Costs According to Planning Horizons ........................................ 76 5. Future Research and Action Needs............................................................................... 82 Bibliography ..................................................................................................................... 84 Annexes............................................................................................................................. 90 2 Introduction We are facing an era of rapid global changes that are altering in alarming ways the biosphere and the interacting tissue of living organisms that inhabit it. In the last five decades, ecosystems and the services they provide have changed more than in any previous period of human history (MA 2005). Further global changes are inevitable and consequences may soon become irreversible (Capra 2002, Lovelock 2007, IPCC 2007). Global projections show large population increases, rise in consumption levels due to changes in life style, and changing climatic conditions by mid century, all with serious consequences to ecosystem services and human well-being (Carpenter et al. 2009). Drivers of change will intensify and feedbacks between social and ecological systems are expected to become stronger and more complex (MA 2005). This paper will explore the adoption of an ecosystem-based approach for adaptation to global changes in the context of Africa, with particular focus on climate change. The paper is structured in the following chapters: Chapter 1 - explains the relevance and benefits of ecosystem-based pathways for climate adaptation and socio-ecological resilience; Chapter 2 - analyzes the effects of climate change on African ecosystems; Chapter 3 - introduces the concept of dynamic landscape of ecosystem-based adaptation pathways and describes in detail and with examples the components of these pathways; Chapter 4 - explores the costs associated to applying an ecosystem-based approach for adaptation using a top-down financial flows analysis, and a bottom-up assessment of specific ecosystem-based adaptation measures; Chapter 5 – outlines future research and action needs. 1. Ecosystem-based Adaptation This chapter explains the importance of applying an ecosystem-based approach for socio- ecological resilience to climate change. It then explains approaches to assess the value of ecosystem services, and the costs and benefits of adopting an ecosystem-based approach for adaptation. 1.1 What is Ecosystem-based Adaptation? The Ecosystem-based Adaptation (EbA) approach relates to the management of ecosystems within interlinked social-ecological systems to enhance ecological processes and services that are essential for resilience to multiple pressures, including climate change (CBD 2009, Chapin et al. 2009, Piran et al. 2009). In other words, EbA integrates the management of ecosystems and biodiversity1 into an overall strategy to help people and ecosystems adapt to the adverse impacts of global change, such as changing climate conditions (Colls et al. 2009). An optimal overall ecosystem-based strategy will seek to 1 For practical purposes this paper does not mention biodiversity every time if refers to ecosystems or ecosystem services, despite it acknowledges that biodiversity has strong effects on a number of ecosystem services by mediating ecosystem processes and functions (see Piran et al. 2009). When referring to ecosystem resilience and sustainable use of natural capital, this paper indirectly implies sustainable management of biodiversity as well. 3 maintain ecological functions at the landscape scale in combination with multi-functional land uses and multi-scale benefits. This approach depends highly on healthy and resilient ecosystems, which are able to deliver a bundle of ecosystem services to support adaptation and well-being of societies in the face of various pressures that can be internal to the social-ecological system, or external, such as extreme events in the short term or climate change in the longer term (Piran et al. 2009). In this sense, strategies within EbA need to consider ways of managing ecosystems for the provision of services that help reducing vulnerability and increasing resilience of socio-ecological systems to both climatic and non-climatic risks, while providing multiple benefits to society and the environment (Colls et al. 2009). At the core of this approach lays the recognition of existing interactions and feedbacks between human and ecological systems and the need to optimize these to enhance benefit flows from the system (UNEP-WCMC 2010). Ecosystem-based approaches can be applied to virtually all types of ecosystems and at different scales from local to continental and international. EbA has the potential to generate multiple environmental and societal benefits, while reconciling short and long- term priorities (TEEB 2009). For instance, EbA can be a synergistic approach that reconciles mitigation objectives by enhancing carbon stocks, with cost-effective protection against climatic hazards, and conservation objectives by preserving natural ecosystems and biodiversity (TEEB 2009). By reducing trade-offs, the adoption of this approach is consistent with the precautionary principle, and can lower risks of mal- adaptation. Moreover, the multi-sectoral and multi-scale nature of EbA means that this approach integrates a range of disciplines, actors, and institutions interacting at different governance levels and influencing diverse decision networks (Vignola et al. 2009). 1.2 Why Ecosystem-based Adaptation? Several are the reasons that explain the relevance of an ecosystem-based approach for adaptation. The rationale lays mainly in the capacity of ecosystems to be resilient and protect human populations from external pressures, the multiple services and benefits to society from ecosystems, and the cost-effectiveness of implementing ecosystem-based measures to support adaptation processes and