Center for Western Priorities January 2019 WINNING THE WEST ELECTION 2018 TO LEARN MORE, PLEASE VISIT US AT: westernpriorities.org ELECTION 2018 — FROM THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR 2. MONTANA: PUBLIC LANDS REMAIN A PREREQUISITE FOR SUCCESS 3. TESTER VS. ROSENDALE — Public lands take center stage 4. WILLIAMS VS. GIANFORTE — Bipartisan unity against selling public lands 5. NEW MEXICO: PUBLIC LANDS WIN IN A LANDSLIDE 6. LUJAN GRISHAM VS. PEARCE — A Governor who champions New Mexico’s lands 7. HEINRICH VS. RICH VS. JOHNSON — A record of conservation success 8. TORRES SMALL VS. HERRELL — A new voice for New Mexico’s lands 9. COMMISSIONER OF PUBLIC LANDS — Holding industry accountable 10. COLORADO: EXPANDING A CONSERVATION LEGACY 11. POLIS VS. STAPLETON — Keeping Colorado wild 12. CROW VS. COFFMAN — Conservation in a suburban district 13. MITSCH BUSH VS. TIPTON — Public lands narrow the gap 14. COLORADO ATTORNEY GENERAL — Standing up for our land 15. ARIZONA: CONSERVATION IN A CHANGING STATE 16. SINEMA VS. McSALLY — Close election, big win for public lands 17. O’HALLERAN VS. ROGERS — Conserving Arizona’s canyons 18. NEVADA: PUBLIC LANDS FOR FUTURE GENERATIONS 19. SISOLAK VS. LAXALT — A vision for Nevada’s energy future 20. ROSEN VS. HELLER — Fighting to preserve Nevada’s outdoors 21. LEE VS. TARKANIAN — Battle for Nevada’s lands 22. HORSFORD VS. HARDY — Monumental rematch 23. UTAH: AN UNEXPECTED WIN FOR PUBLIC LANDS 24. McADAMS VS. LOVE — A balanced approach 25. SAN JUAN COUNTY COMMISSIONER — Historic victory 26. IDAHO: PUBLIC LANDS EXTREMISM REJECTED 27. LITTLE VS. JORDAN — Idaho rejects extreme views on public lands 28. TABLE OF CONTENTS WYOMING: A BALANCE BETWEEN ENERGY AND CONSERVATION 29. GORDON VS. THRONE — A balanced public lands platform 30. POLLING INSIGHTS 31. The growing outdoor voting bloc 32. TO LEARN MORE, PLEASE VISIT US AT: Meet the outdoor voters 33. How Western voters talk about their public lands 34. The online conversation 35. westernpriorities.org ELECTION 2020 — A LOOK AHEAD 36. REFERENCES 37. ELECTION 2018 FROM THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR What does it mean to “Win the Polls, focus groups, and a social media analysis West?” In the 2018 midterm showed how the growing influence of the election, it meant respecting and outdoor voting bloc played an outsized role protecting public lands. Winning in moving Western voters. Voters in Mountain candidates in close Mountain West swing states like Arizona, Colorado, West elections prioritized these Montana, Nevada, and New Mexico told us they issues in order to connect with supported a balanced approach to managing voters. Advertising, social media, conservation, recreation, and responsible and campaign imagery related energy development. They wanted candidates to outdoor issues—highlighted who care about conservation and are willing to in our 2016 report as noteworthy take positions that respect the Western way of patterns—are now unignorable life. And they overwhelmingly rejected efforts trends. While other issues like to drill and mine recklessly on public lands or health care and immigration topped headlines, shrink popular national monuments. winning candidates in the Mountain West made concerted efforts to highlight their pro-public Those views turned into votes last November. lands positions and values. Of the 22 races we tracked throughout this election, 20 featured significant pro-public Pro-public lands candidates won in the West; lands advertising or public lands messaging. firm respect for the outdoors is a key voting Candidates leveraged public lands to gain issue for Westerners. support while using the mountains and outdoor spaces of the Mountain West to serve as the Public lands—how they are used, their backdrop of numerous campaign ads and pro- importance to local economies, and the way public lands messages on social media. they define life in the West—were often featured as a distinguishing issue by winning campaigns. This report is the culmination of our analysis in In most competitive states and districts across the 2018 election cycle. We hope you will learn the region, candidates had to be pro-public more and join us online at westernpriorities. lands to win. Many candidates leveraged public org/winningthewest to continue the lands to connect with Western voters not only conversation moving forward. throughout their campaign, but also in the week leading up to Election Day. The Center for Western Priorities’ Winning the West campaign examined the views of voters on public lands and how the issue was highlighted Jennifer Rokala in closely-watched elections in Arizona, Executive Director, Colorado, Montana, Nevada, and New Mexico. Center for Western Priorities 2 MONTANA: Public lands MONTANA VOTERS remain a AT A GLANCE 36% 57% prerequisite approval rating oppose increasing for then- oil and gas U.S. Interior development on for success Secretary public lands. Ryan Zinke. In Montana, there’s an expectation that successful candidates running for public office show strong oppose increasing support for public lands and access to the outdoors 66% public land available for hunting, angling, and outdoor recreation. for oil and gas development by Seventy-one percent of voters say they oppose reducing conservation efforts on behalf opening public lands close to national parks and of potentially endangered wildlife. monuments for oil and gas drilling. Public lands— and access to them—has become a third rail in Montana. In 2018, outdoor issues played a significant think outdoor recreation role in two races. 91% will be important to the future of their state’s economy. 3 Tester vs. Rosendale: PUBLIC LANDS TAKE CENTER STAGE PUBLIC LANDS IN PUBLIC HANDS “Look, Montanans know who I am: They Senator Jon Tester, a Democrat, ran for know I’m a lifetime Montanan, they re-election on a pro-public lands platform, know I understand rural America, they prominently featuring the issue in his know I understand public lands and not closing argument to voters in a nationally privatizing them, they know I understand watched race that was expected to be close. the importance of public education. Matt Rosendale isn’t any of that.”1 Initially, Tester was seen as one of the nation’s most vulnerable Senate A “RANCHER” AT HEART My family's been farming out here for three generations. Tester used his support for public lands incumbents. President Donald Trump won “Montana is a special place. the state by 21 points in 2016 and U.S. and outdoor access to buttress against I've defended our public lands Representative Greg Gianforte comfortably frequent attacks from President Trump, every day that I've been in the won the state’s at-large congressional seat who visited the state four times over the Senate, while my opponent in a recent special election. fall and held multiple rallies in support supported transferring our federal public lands. Now he of Rosendale in the closing days before says he's seen the light. But 2 Public lands took center stage this election the election. Tester’s campaign spent just last year he voted against as Tester ran multiple television ads and a reported $790,000 on internet and access to tens of thousands promoted social media content promising television advertising, many targeting of acres. Montanans have to fight and keep “public lands in public voters with a pro-public lands message.3 long fought off out of state developers. I'm Jon Tester hands.” Tester ended ads and speeches and I approve this message to with the frequent refrain: “as long as I’m in The race caught the attention of national defend Montana once again. the U.S. Senate, Montana is not for sale.” media and brands like Patagonia. Its endorsement of Tester marked the first — JON TESTER CAMPAIGN AD, Tester used his position and record on political endorsement in the company’s “Defending Our Public Lands” public lands as a way to connect with history.4 local voters and, by contrast, portray his opponent, developer Matt Rosendale, Tester’s strategy of connecting with as an outsider without a grasp on what voters through the shared value of it means to be a Montanan. Tester respecting Montana’s public lands was confidently discussed his campaign and a success. He won a majority of the vote how Montanans viewed him in an interview and outpaced his opponent by three with The Associated Press, stating: percentage points.5 Election day tweet from Sen. Jon Tester Don’t let rain or snow slow you down. Montanans are counting on you to vote today by 8pm. Our public lands, health care, and Montana Jon Tester way of life depend on it. @jontester 7:21 AM - 6 Nov 2018 4 Williams vs. Gianforte: BIPARTISAN UNITY AGAINST SELLING PUBLIC LANDS Greg Gianforte @GregForMontana The race for Montana’s at-large seat in hard stance against the sale or transfer of Montana’s public lands the U.S. House of Representatives pitted public lands, putting him at odds with the are always worth fighting for, which is why I incumbent Congressman Greg Gianforte, Republican Party’s national platform on “championed legislation to 7 a Republican, against Democrat Kathleen the issue. protect East Rosebud Creek. Williams. Gianforte won the seat in a 2017 Montana is our home. I’m special election to replace former Interior Gianforte spent nearly $4.2 million on proud to defend it. Secretary Ryan Zinke. his statewide campaign, running more 11:28AM - 18 Sep 2018 television ads than any other candidate Gianforte previously ran for governor in running in a statewide election across 2016, losing to Democrat Steve Bullock. the country.8 Those ads,