Urban Density Gradient Analysis and Review of the Washington DC Metropolitan Statistical Area Jesse Benson Organizational Overview The Washington Metropolitan Area includes the city of Washington and the Federal District – the District of Columbia – and twenty-four additional counties and cities from the states of Maryland, Virginia, and West Virginia. It consists of two metropolitan divisions: the Bethesda-Gaithersburg- Frederick (MD Metropolitan Division) to the northeast and consisting of Montgomery and Frederick counties, Maryland; and the Washington- Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV Metropolitan Division. The Washington Metropolitan Area is also part of the larger Washington-Baltimore- Northern Virginia, DC-MD-VA-WV Combined Statistical Area (CSA)1. Several Virginia cities are included in the list of counties within the Washington Metropolitan Area, the result of a Virginia state statute that defines municipalities independent of county organization and government. These cities are considered counties for census and MSA purposes. The counties – and cities – included in the Washington Metropolitan Area are as follows: 1. District of Columbia 10. Fairfax County, Virginia 18. Alexandria City, Virginia 2. Calvert County, Maryland 11. Fauquier County, Virginia 19. Fairfax City, Virginia 3. Charles County, Maryland 12. King George County, Virginia 20. Falls Church City, Virginia 4. Frederick County, Maryland 13. Loudoun County, Virginia 21. Fredericksburg City, Virginia 5. Montgomery County, Maryland 14. Prince William County, Virginia 22. Manassas City, Virginia 6. Prince George's County, Maryland 15. Spotsylvania County, Virginia 23. Manassas Park City, Virginia 7. Arlington County, Virginia 16. Stafford County, Virginia 24. Berkeley County, West Virginia 8. Clarke County, Virginia 17. Warren County, Virginia 25. Jefferson County, West Virginia 9. Culpeper County, Virginia 1 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Washington_Metropolitan_Area 1 Urban Density Gradient Analysis and Review of the Washington DC Metropolitan Statistical Area PA 5202 - Spring 2007 Jesse Benson The map below shows location of these twenty-five municipalities within the larger Washington Area MSA. 2 Urban Density Gradient Analysis and Review of the Washington DC Metropolitan Statistical Area PA 5202 - Spring 2007 Jesse Benson General Statistics The Washington MSA is relatively large, both in population and in area, ranked as the 8th largest MSA in the United States.2 Population in the 2000 Census was reported as 4,923,152 people, an increase of 16.6% from the 4,223,485 people counted in the 1990 Census. The most significant growth occurred in the MSA suburbs, where population increased by more than 20% during the 1990s from 3,616,585 people to a 2000 Census total of 4,351,094. Although not geographically large by Midwestern or Western standards, the Washington MSA, at approximately 6,500 square miles, is reasonably significant in size for the East Coast. The District occupies only 61 square miles. The remaining approximate 6,440 square miles are outside the central city. Comparison of household income levels between the District and the larger Washington Metropolitan MSA show suburban households earning 29% more than District homes in 1990 and 36.8% more in 2000 (see Median Income table below). Median Income Washington Metropolitan Area, 1990 and 2000 Census Year District of Columbia (CBD) Suburbs 1990 (1989) $33,959.71 $51,768.98 2000 (1999) $43,857.10 $70,808.45 Income distribution for the entire MSA (using 1990 data only) shows that the Washington Metropolitan Area leans towards the upper-middle class, with 35% earning between $50-$99,999, a majority (51%) earning in the comfortable $37,500-$99,999 range, 11% living below the poverty threshold, and only 10% earned more than $100,000. For better or worse, household income levels in the District itself are much more evenly distributed across the four class quartiles. Data from the 1990 Census shows 24% living at or below the poverty threshold, 14% earning more than $100,000, and middle class incomes in the $37,500-$49,999 range (rather than in the $50,000-$74,999 range of the MSA middle class). 2 http://www.census.gov/population/cen2000/; http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metropolitan_Statistical_Area 3 Urban Density Gradient Analysis and Review of the Washington DC Metropolitan Statistical Area PA 5202 - Spring 2007 Jesse Benson Income Distribution Washington Metropolitan Area, 1990 Washington, DC MSA - Income Distribution, Census 1990 District of Columbia Income Distribution, Census 1990 $150,000 or more Less than $5,000 $125,000-$149,999 $150,000 or more $125,000-$149,999 3% 3% 2% 3% 2% $5,000-$14,999 $100,000-$124,999 Less than $5,000 $100,000-$124,999 8% 3% 9% 5% $75,000-$99,999 6% $5,000-$14,999 $15,000-$24,999 15% $75,000-$99,999 11% 12% $50,000-$74,999 14% $25,000-$37,499 $15,000-$24,999 17% 17% $37,500-$49,999 12% $50,000-$74,999 $37,500-$49,999 23% 16% $25,000-$37,499 19% Race considerations within the Washington Metropolitan Area can be summarized as follows: More than 50% white, but the percent is decreasing About 25% black, African, or African-American Growing Asian and Hispanic populations Hispanic population growing at fastest rate 4 Urban Density Gradient Analysis and Review of the Washington DC Metropolitan Statistical Area PA 5202 - Spring 2007 Jesse Benson These statements are summarized in the two following charts. Washington, DC - MSA Race Distribution, Census 1990 Other race Asian or Pacific Islander Hispanic origin: 0% 5% 5% American Indian, Eskimo, or Aleut 0% White Black Black 25% American Indian, Eskimo, or Aleut Asian or Pacific Islander White Other race 65% Hispanic origin: Washington, DC - MSA Race Distribution, Census 2000 Native Hawaiian and Other Some other race Hispanic or Latino Pacific Islander 0% 11% 0% Asian 7% White 56% American Indian and Alaska Native 0% White Black or African American American Indian and Alaska Native Asian Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander Black or African American Some other race 26% Hispanic or Latino 5 Urban Density Gradient Analysis and Review of the Washington DC Metropolitan Statistical Area PA 5202 - Spring 2007 Jesse Benson Density Expectedly, given the above-average population densities of East Coast agglomerations, the Washington Metropolitan MSA population densities are higher than those across the country. For instance, according to the 2000 Census, the three most densely populated states were New Jersey (1,134 people/mile2), Rhode Island (1,003 people/mile2), and Massachusetts (810 people/mile2)3. If placed similarly on this list, the Washington MSA would rank as the fourth with 756 people/mile2 – an increase of 108 people/mile2 from the density measured in the 1990 Census. Descriptive statistics for population density are shown for the two Census measurements, 1990 and 2000, in the following table. Range, median, and mean are provided for three geographical areas – 1.) Washington Metropolitan Area (MSA Total); 2.) District of Columbia/ Washington, DC (CBD); 3.) Suburbs. The two most interesting observations of these statistics are, first, the very large difference in mean density between the CBD and suburbs (nearly 12,000 more people/mile2 in the city) and, second, that this difference decreased substantially from 1990-2000 by 1,310 people/mile2 (from approximately 11,754 in 1990 to 10,344 in 2000) – a drop of 12%. In simplest terms, this change is the result of two forces – the loss of center city residents, alongside of suburban growth. The trend warrants further investigation, whether it be to determine who is relocating, why they are doing so, what are the influences of the job and housing market, what are family sizes and ages for people coming and going, or if there are pertinent public policies that need to be revisited. Descriptive Statistics for Population Density Washington Metropolitan Area, 1990 and 2000 1990 2000 Geographical Area Range Median Mean Range Median Mean Density – Washington 1.3-60,737 3,465 5,814 0-57,507 3,916 6,233 Metropolitan Area (MSA TOTAL) Density – District of 0-60,737 13,227 15,415 0-57,507 11,809 14,702 Columbia (CBD) Density – Suburbs 0-40,163 2,722 3,660 0-46,007 3,352 4,358 Whatever the case, with the District bound by its border and unable to expand through annexation, this situation raises speculative questions regarding opportunities for future growth and revitalization within the Washington, DC, and older inner-suburban neighborhoods, as well as of the future influence of the city within the larger MSA, of the political and economic relationship between the District and its first-ring neighbors and the expanding – and wealthy – suburbs, and of the difficulty in addressing the needs of lower-income and lower-profile households in this high-profile national Capitol MSA. 3 ibid. 6 Urban Density Gradient Analysis and Review of the Washington DC Metropolitan Statistical Area PA 5202 - Spring 2007 Jesse Benson Out-migration from the District CBD, likely in combination with suburban in-migration from outside the MSA, can be further examined in comparing the percent of people from 1990 and 2000 living in areas of higher than average densities. With 29% of the population living in above average density in 2000, and 31.4% in 1990, the numbers in this are not tipped as dramatically in favor of the suburbs as they were in the above comparison of density differences where the 12% drop in difference of mean density seemed to suggest that the city and suburbs were on a path towards parity. However, the fact that there was only a 2.4% reduction in the number of people living in areas of above-average density does not necessarily mean that the District is holding its own better than expected; instead, it could just mean that the people who left densely populated center city neighborhoods did so through relocating to suburban neighborhoods that also had population densities higher than average.