Latin America Program Brazil Institute BRAZIL AS A REGIONAL POWER: Views from the Hemisphere Introduction Cynthia Arnson and Paulo Sotero Over the last decade, Brazil has played an increasingly prominent role in both hemispheric and global affairs. The examples abound: since 2004, Brazil has led the United Nations Mission in Haiti (MINUSTAH), played a central role in the 2009 Honduran crisis, and was instrumental in the creation of both the Union of South American Nations (UNASUR) and a new forum of Latin American and Caribbean countries. Brazil’s economic performance surely plays a role in the country’s enhanced regional and global quest for leadership. Now the 8th largest economy in the world, Brazil’s GDP has expanded at an average rate of 4.2 percent since 2003 and is expected to grow at an even higher rate over the next decade.1 By the end of 2009, Bra- zil’s economy represented 40 percent of the total Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Latin America and the Caribbean, and 55 percent of the GDP of South America alone.2 Brazil’s rise is reflected in its involvement on critical issues of global governance such as climate change, reform of the international financial architecture, food security, commodities trading, and international security; in the latter category was the Brazilian govern- ment’s controversial attempt, along with Turkey, to broker a deal between Teheran 1 Source: DBRS chart based on Central Bank of Brazil numbers in “Response to Financial Tax Ruling Key to Brazil’s Credit Ratings,” January 2008, http://dbrs.info/research/217861/response-to-financial-tax-ruling-key- to-brazil-s-credit-ratings.pdf. 2 According to International Monetary Fund figures, Brazil’s GDP is 54.94 percent of South America’s total and 39.6 percent of the total for Latin America and the Caribbean. See IMF, World Economic Outlook Database, April 2010, Report for Selected Countries, Gross domestic product, current prices (U.S. dollars). and the five permanent members of country’s attitudes toward the rest of the hemi- the United Nations Security Council sphere. A second section focuses on Argentine, over Iran’s nuclear program. Bolivian, Colombian, and Venezuelan percep- What is Brazil’s view of itself, its role tions of and responses to Brazil’s rise as a re- in the region, and its relations with its gional power. Third, scholars consider Brazil’s neighbors in the Western Hemisphere? In relations with Mexico, Central America, and the terms of its place within the region, what Caribbean, highlighting the country’s role in Haiti does Brazil want and why? Can the giant of and its close ties with a Cuba in transition as South America consolidate its position as re- key elements of its exercise of “soft power.” The gional leader, given domestic constraints and concluding section, on Brazilian-U.S. attitudes resistance from its neighbors? Does Brazil see toward one another, anticipates the conflict- its immediate neighborhood as platform for its ing views of the relationship—from the official own global projection onto a rapidly changing American perspective that the two nations have world scene? Seeking answers for these com- national interests that are largely convergent to plex questions, the Woodrow Wilson Center’s the opposite view, dramatically on display in mid- Latin American Program and the Brazil Insti- 2010, when Brasília and Washington clashed tute convened a day-long conference of distin- openly over the Iranian nuclear program. guished foreign policy experts from throughout We are grateful to Program Assistants Renata the hemisphere on March 12, 2010. Historian Johnson and Nikki Nichols of the Brazil Institute Leslie Bethell, professor emeritus at the Universi- and the Latin American Program, respectively, ty of London and a Brazil Institute senior scholar, for their support of conference logistics. We also was instrumental in planning and organizing the wish to thank former Brazil Institute staff mem- conference during a period of residence at the ber Daniel Budny, currently pursuing a Ph.D. in Wilson Center in early 2010. political science at the University of Texas, Aus- This report summarizes the multiple and tin, who provided an initial draft of this report. complex perceptions held by Brazilians as well as a host of other countries in the region re- garding Brazil’s “emergence” as a regional and Brazil’s view of itself global power. The first section considers the and the region views of Brazilian scholars and analysts with respect to their role in the hemisphere. Partici- As an introduction to the first panel on Brazil’s pants reflect on how geography, history, and view of itself, its role in the region, its relations with culture have shaped Brazilians’ perceptions its neighbors in the Western Hemisphere Leslie Leslie Bethell of themselves as members of a neighbor- Bethell, senior scholar at the Woodrow Wilson Cen- hood they have only in recent decades ter, contextualized Brazil’s emergence as a regional begun to incorporate as part of their own power by providing a historical overview of Brazil’s national interest. The historic reluctance relations with both the United States and Spanish of Brazilians to see themselves as Latin America – divided into four broad periods. Americans and the preoccupation that In the first, from the establishment of an inde- the United States could act in South pendent Empire in 1822 to the proclamation of the America in ways that adversely affect republic in 1889, political elites and intellectuals Brazil’s interests emerge as factors did not consider Brazil part of what Spanish Ameri- that—to this day—condition the can governments and intellectuals called América 2 Latina. Except in the Rio de la Plata, Brazil’s rela- Speaking in a personal capacity tions with the Spanish American republics were rather than as a representative of the extremely limited. And Brazil did little to foster its Brazilian government, Minister Achil- relations with the United States. les Zaluar of the Brazilian Embassy in During the second period, from 1889 to the Washington detailed some of the many Second World War, Brazilian governments— historical reasons that Brazil remained dis- and, to a lesser extent, Brazilian intellectuals— tant from its Latin American neighbors for became more interested in establishing close so long and why Brazil’s ties to the United ties with the United States and were enthusi- States cooled after the “unwritten alliance” astic supporters of pan-Americanism. But after period in the first half of the 20th century. To the peaceful resolution of a series of frontier better comprehend Brazilian foreign policy- disputes with its immediate neighbours, Brazil making, particularly the role of Itamaraty, Bra- largely turned its back on the Spanish American zil’s Ministry of External Relations, since the pe- republics once again. Latin America/Spanish riod of the Baron of Rio-Branco (1902–1912), America remained a world apart. Zaluar proposed a thought experiment: imagine During the Cold War, Brazil’s relations with yourself a student of geopolitics from planet Mars the United States became more problematic, in who has just stumbled upon detailed maps of large part due to US neglect. Within the limited the Western Hemisphere in the year 1900. Your room for manoeuvre available to it, Brazil sought first impression of Brazil would most likely be that to develop an independent foreign policy, which the country is blessed with favorable geopoliti- included closer relations with other countries in cal factors—an immense country with rich natu- the Third World. However, this was largely lim- ral resources and navigable rivers, surrounded ited to Africa and Asia; Brazil showed little inter- by 12 smaller nations that, at least individually, est in engaging with the region, Latin America could not plausibly pose a threat. However, per- or South America, in which it was now clearly haps they could, with the help of the larger and the dominant country in terms of territory, popu- far more populated country further north, the lation and GDP. And with the notable exception United States—Brazil’s only potential regional of some prominent politicians and intellectuals rival. This line of reasoning is what led Itamaraty on the Left, most Brazilians still felt little con- in the 20th century to first consolidate national nection to, or identification with, Latin America/ borders through formal treaties and then dis- Spanish America. tance itself from its hispanophone neighbors, In the post-Cold War period, Brazil has be- then enter into an unwritten alliance of mutual come not only more deeply involved in global understanding and détente with the United affairs generally but also for the first time more States, and finally, attract investment and im- Achilles Zaluar engaged, both politically and economically, with migration from Europe as a way to promote its neighbors in South America and, to a lesser national development and counterbalance extent, in Central America and the Caribbean U.S. hegemony. (though not so much Mexico). Brazil has begun Following the Second World War, how- to think of itself, and to some extent to behave, ever, Brazil’s foreign relations underwent as a regional power, at least in South America, as two dramatic shifts. First, the unwritten well as a global power. Partly as a result of this, alliance with the United States col- its relationship with the United States remains lapsed when Brazil felt it had been extremely complex. cast aside. Upon joining the allied 3 war effort and sending 15,000 troops turn, its neighbors refused to concede to Brazil- to the Italian front, Brazil expected ian regional leadership. Brasília preferred to deal the start of a strong U.S.-Brazilian re- with neighbors on an individual, ad hoc basis, es- lationship; instead, U.S.