The Conventional Military Balance in the Koreas and Northeast Asia By Anthony H. Cordesman With the assistance of Charles Ayers and Aaron Lin Working Draft: August 2, 2016 Please provide comments to [email protected] Photo Credit: Republic of Korea Armed Forces 2 Table of Contents INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................................................................................................... 5 DETERRENCE, RESTRAINT, AND LEVELS OF CONFLICT ...................................................................................................... 5 A Clash or Conflict between the DPRK and ROK ...................................................................................................... 6 LEVELS OF “CONVENTIONAL” CONFLICT ........................................................................................................................... 10 Open-Ended Scenarios and Escalation Ladders ................................................................................................... 10 Comparing Total “Conventional” Orders of Battle with Possible Combat Scenarios ........................... 12 The Limits to Conventional Force Comparisons ................................................................................................... 13 What to Count ..................................................................................................................................................................... 14 TOTAL MANPOWER ............................................................................................................................................................... 15 ARMY AND LAND FORCES ..................................................................................................................................................... 20 NAVAL AND MARINE FORCES .............................................................................................................................................. 31 AIR AND AIR DEFENSE FORCES, AND DPRK ARTILLERY, MRLS, ROCKETS, AND MISSILES ................................... 42 Fixed Wing Aircraft ........................................................................................................................................................... 42 Rotary Wing Aircraft ........................................................................................................................................................ 43 Surface-to-Air Missiles and Anti-Aircraft Guns ..................................................................................................... 51 Conventional Artillery and Surface-to-Surface Rockets and Missiles as a Counterbalance to Limits in Airpower ........................................................................................................................................................................... 55 DPRK ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 62 Leadership and Command and Control ................................................................................................................... 62 Force Size and Structure ................................................................................................................................................. 65 Potential Invasion Scenarios and Capacities ......................................................................................................... 71 Military Personnel ............................................................................................................................................................. 73 Recruitment and Training ............................................................................................................................................................................. 74 Weapons Systems and Equipment Deficiencies and Capabilities ................................................................................................ 78 Key Assets ............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 79 Quality vs. Quantity .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 80 ROK .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 80 Responsibilities and Doctrine ....................................................................................................................................... 83 Indigenous Equipment Development ........................................................................................................................ 83 UNCERTAIN PATTERNS OF CONFLICT AND ESCALATION ................................................................................................ 83 Cheonan ................................................................................................................................................................................. 84 Yeonpyeong .......................................................................................................................................................................... 84 Conventional Provocations: 2010-2016 ................................................................................................................... 88 Political Fallout .................................................................................................................................................................. 88 Additional Issues and Scenarios .................................................................................................................................. 89 Table of Figures 3 • Figure II.3: Avenues of Approach from the DPRK to the ROK • Figure II.4: ROK Estimate of Korean Manpower Balance in 2014 • Figure II.5: ROK Estimate of Northeast Asian Force Manpower Balance in 2014 • Figure II.6: IISS Estimate of Total Active Military Manpower Affecting the Northeast Asian Balance in 2016 (in thousands) • Figure II.7: IISS Estimate of Total Military Reserve Manpower, Affecting the Northeast Asian Balance in 2016 (in thousands) • Figure II.8: ROK Estimate of Korean Force Balance in 2014 (Army) • Figure II.9: ROK Estimate of Northeast Asian Force Land Balance in 2014 • Figure II.10: IISS Estimate of Army Manpower and Equipment in Northeast Asia in 2016 • Figure II.11: IISS Estimate of Northeast Asian Modern Main Battle Tanks versus Total Holdings in 2016 • Figure II.12: IISS Estimate of Total Northeast Asian Armored Fighting Vehicles (Army) in 2016 • Figure II.13: IISS Estimate of Total Northeast Asian Modern versus Not Modern Armored Vehicles in 2016 • Figure II.14: IISS Estimate of Total Northeast Asian Artillery Strength in 2016 • Figure II.15: ROK Estimate of Korean Naval Balance in 2014 • Figure II.16. IISS Estimate of Total Navy Manpower and Equipment in Northeast Asia in 2016 • Figure II.17: IISS Estimate of Total Northeast Asian Naval Combat Ships in 2016 • Figure II.18: IISS Estimate of Total Northeast Asian Naval Combat Ships by Category in 2016 • Figure II.19: IISS Estimate of Total Northeast Asian Submarines by Type in 2016 • Figure II.21: IISS Estimate of Total Air Force Manpower and Equipment in Northeast Asia in 2016 • Figure II.22: IISS Estimate of Total Northeast Asian Fixed Wing Combat Aircraft by Branch in 2016 • Figure II.23: IISS Estimate of Total Northeast Asian Fixed Wing Aircraft by Type in 2016 • Figure II.24: IISS Estimate of Total Northeast Asian Rotary Wing Combat Aircraft by Force in 2016 • Figure II.25: IISS Estimate of Total Northeast Asian Rotary Wing Aircraft by Type in 2016 • Figure II.26: IISS Estimate of Total Northeast Asian Air/Missile Defenses in 2016 • Figure II.27: IISS Estimate of Total Korean and Northeast Asian Air/Missile Defenses in 2016 • Figure II.28: Northeast Asian Missile and Bomb Capabilities • Figure II.29: IISS Estimate of Total Paramilitary Manpower and Equipment in Northeast Asia in 2016 • Figure II.30: ROK Diagram of DPRK Force Organization • Figure II.31: Deployment of DPRK Ground Forces in 2015 4 • Figure II.32: Deployment of DPRK Air Forces in 2015 • Figure II.33: Deployment of DPRK Naval Forces in 2015 • Figure II.34: DPRK Training Program for Military Officers • Figure II.35: DPRK Military Exercises and Activities • Figure II.36: Command Structure of ROK Forces • Figure II.37: The Cheonan Sinking and Shelling of Yeonpyeong Island (2010) • Figure II.38: The Northern Limit Line and Yeonpyeong Island 5 Introduction Military balance has long been a key factor shaping the stability of the Koreas and Northeast Asia. For decades, the DPRK has shaped the military balance in the Koreas through periods of deliberate confrontation and military threats, threatening military movements and exercises, a steady military build-up, and sporadic acts of low-level violence ranging from assassination to artillery attacks and ship sinkings. It has focused on ROK targets, but has also consistently threatened the United States. There is no one view of the military balance that is likely to shape any conflict between the Koreas.