REFERENCE SCENARIO (RS) Current situation and projections with policies and measures existing as at the end of 2017 (without implementing the NECP) Annex 1 to the 2021-2030 National Energy and Climate Plan Rev. 5.2 of 18/12/2019 Current situation and projections with policies and measures existing as at the end of 2017 (reference scenario – without implementing the NECP) Table of contents INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................................................................. 3 4. CURRENT SITUATION AND PROJECTIONS WITH EXISTING POLICIES AND MEASURES (AS AT THE END OF 2017) .............................................................................................................................................. 3 4.1 Projected evolution of main exogenous factors influencing energy system and greenhouse gas emission developments – general parameters and variables ....................................................................... 3 4.1.1. Population ................................................................................................................................... 3 4.1.2. GDP ............................................................................................................................................ 4 4.1.3. Sectoral gross value added ........................................................................................................ 4 4.1.4. Number and size of households ................................................................................................. 5 4.1.5. Disposable household income .................................................................................................... 6 4.1.6. Passenger transport performance .............................................................................................. 6 4.1.7. Freight transport performance .................................................................................................... 7 4.1.8. International fuel import prices .................................................................................................... 8 4.1.9. Prices of EU ETS CO2 emission allowances .............................................................................. 8 4.1.10. Exchange rates ........................................................................................................................... 9 4.1.11. Number of heating and cooling degree days .............................................................................. 9 4.1.12. Technology cost assumptions used in the modelling of key technologies ................................. 9 4.2. Dimension decarbonisation.................................................................................................................14 4.2.1. Greenhouse gas emissions and removals ................................................................................14 4.2.2. Renewable energy ....................................................................................................................31 4.3. Dimension energy efficiency ...............................................................................................................39 4.3.1. Primary and final energy consumption .....................................................................................39 4.3.2. Final energy consumption by sector .........................................................................................40 4.3.3. Final energy consumption by fuel .............................................................................................41 4.3.4. Non-energy use.........................................................................................................................42 4.3.5. Primary energy intensity ...........................................................................................................43 4.3.6. Final energy intensity by sector ................................................................................................43 4.3.7. Fuel input in electricity and heat generation .............................................................................43 4.3.8. Fuel input in other conversion processes .................................................................................44 4.3.9. Share of cogeneration in electricity and heat production ..........................................................44 4.3.10. Production of heat in power plants, combined heat and power plants and heating plants ......45 4.3.11. Potential for high-efficiency cogeneration and efficient district heating and cooling ................45 4.3.12. Cost-optimal minimum requirements for energy performance .................................................48 4.4. Dimension energy security ..................................................................................................................50 4.4.1. National energy resources ........................................................................................................50 4.4.2. Inland production by fuel type ...................................................................................................57 4.4.3. Net imports by fuel type ............................................................................................................58 4.4.4. Main sources of imports (countries) ..........................................................................................59 4.4.5. Gross inland fuel and energy consumption ..............................................................................60 4.4.6. Electricity and heat production ..................................................................................................61 4.4.7. Gross electricity generation by fuel ...........................................................................................62 2 Current situation and projections with policies and measures existing as at the end of 2017 (reference scenario – without implementing the NECP) 4.4.8. Electricity generation capacity by source ..................................................................................64 4.5 Dimension internal energy market ......................................................................................................65 4.5.1. Interconnections ........................................................................................................................65 4.5.2. Energy transmission infrastructure ...........................................................................................65 4.5.3. Electricity and gas markets, energy prices ...............................................................................74 4.6. Dimension Research, innovation and competitiveness ...................................................................84 4.6.1. Current situation of the low-carbon-technologies sector and its position on the global market84 4.6.2. Current level of public and private investment in research and innovation in low-carbon technologies, current number of patents and current number of researchers ...............................................91 4.6.3. Current level of energy costs taking into account the international context .............................94 4.6.4. Current research and innovation policies and measures. ......................................................109 4.6.5. Projection of outlays on emission reduction research ............................................................119 Introduction This document is an analytical contribution to the preparation of the 2021-2030 National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP), being the first of two analytical annexes to the NECP. The study explores the impact of policies and measures that existed until the end of 2017, representing a business-as-usual scenario that does not take into account the implementation of policies and actions determined after 31 December 2017. This is the reference scenario (RS) for the Energy and Climate Policy (ECP) scenario, which is presented in Annex 2 of the NECP – Impact Assessment of planned policies and measures. The ECP scenario is an analysis of the impact of policies and measures that set out how and with what results the climate and energy targets and targets implementing the Energy Union will be achieved. Both documents present a multi-faceted impact analysis of the effects of implementation until 2030, with an outlook to the year 2040. This part of the report and the information it contains are consistent with guidelines stemming from Regulation (EU) 2018/1999 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 11 December 2018 on the Governance of the Energy Union and Climate Action, amending Regulations (EC) No 663/2009 and (EC) No 715/2009 of the European Parliament and of the Council, Directives 94/22/EC, 98/70/EC, 2009/31/EC, 2009/73/EC, 2010/31/EU, 2012/27/EU and 2013/30/EU of the European Parliament and of the Council, Council Directives 2009/119/EC and (EU) 2015/652 and repealing Regulation (EU) No 525/2013 of the European Parliament and of the Council. 4. CURRENT SITUATION AND PROJECTIONS WITH EXISTING POLICIES AND MEASURES (as at the end of 2017) 4.1 Projected evolution of main exogenous factors influencing energy system and greenhouse gas emission developments – general parameters and variables 4.1.1. Population The size of the population residing in Poland was estimated on the basis of the census conducted in 2011, with calculations for the consecutive years being based on data from administrative