American Association for Public Opinion Research 62nd Annual Conference Of Polls and Policy Hyatt Regency Orange County May 17-20, 2007 Anaheim, California 62nd Annual Conference May 17-20, 2007 Hyatt Regency Orange County 11999 Harbor Boulevard • Garden Grove, CA 92840 Phone: 714.750.1234 • Guest Fax: 714.971.1721 • www.hyattoc.com TABLE OF CONTENTS AAPOR Schedule of Events . 3 General Information AAPOR & WAPOR Executive Councils . 47 AAPOR Executive Offi ce Staff . 49 Chapter Presidents . 49 Past Presidents / AAPOR Honorary Life Members . 50 Committees . 51 Awards . 54 Conference Sponsors . 55 Technology & Software Exhibitors . 57 Publishers / Book Exhibitors . 57 Contributors . 58 Conference Abstracts . 63 Index . .175 Ads . 185 Maps . inside back cover / back cover Registration/Information Desk Badges/Tickets The AAPOR registration and information desk is located Name badges are provided for all registered meeting in the Royal Ballroom Foyer. All attendees must check in at attendees, exhibitors, speakers and staff. Badges are the registration desk to pick up their conference program, required to gain admittance to all sessions, social events, name badge, and other meeting materials prior to attending and the exhibit hall. Tickets will be collected at each core sessions or social events. Tickets for admittance to the meals meal function. Be sure to bring your ticket with you to are included in the registration packet. the door for admittance. Registration hours are as follows: Wednesday, May 16 . 12:00 p.m. – 8:00 p.m. Thursday, May 17 . 7:00 a.m. – 5:00 p.m. Friday, May 18 . 7:30 a.m. – 4:30 p.m. Saturday, May 19 . 7:30 a.m. – 3:00 p.m. Sunday, May 20 . 8:00 a.m. – 10:15 a.m. 1 NOTES 2 Schedule of Events 3 NOTES 4 WEDNESDAY, MAY 16, 2007 May 16 Wednesday, AAPOR EXECUTIVE COUNCIL MEETING/LUNCH 8:00 a.m. – 6:00 p.m. Salon 7-8 AAPOR REGISTRATION DESK OPEN 12:00 p.m. – 8:00 p.m. Royal Registration GOLF OUTING 2:00 p.m. Sponsored by RTI International AAPOR SHORT COURSES 2:30 p.m. – 6:00 p.m. (pre-registration required) Pacifi c Cell Phones and Survey Research – John Hall, Linda B. Piekarski, Mario Callegaro, & Donna Gillin Harbor Propensity Scores – Karol Krotki & Sunghee Lee DESSERT WELCOME RECEPTION 8:00 p.m. – 11:00 p.m. Sponsored by NORC Networks Bar Photo courtesy of AOCVCB. 5 THURSDAY, MAY 17, 2007 7:00 a.m. – 5:00 p.m. AAPOR REGISTRATION DESK OPEN Royal Registration 8:00 a.m. – 11:30 a.m. AAPOR SHORT COURSES (pre-registration required) Pacifi c Multimode Data Collection: Design, Implementation, and Evaluation – Martin R. Frankel & Michael W. Link Sponsored by DMS Research Harbor Introduction to Writing Survey Questions – Nora Cate Schaeffer CONCURRENT SESSION A Thursday WHAT’S BEHIND THE VOTE CHOICE? 8:00 a.m. – 9:30 a.m. Terrace ABC Chair: Christopher Paul Borick, Muhlenberg College Discussant: Michael Butterworth, CBS News Determining the Impact of Iraq on the 2006 Election: Traditional Versus Priming Methods Dan Cassino, Fairleigh Dickinson University Krista Jenkins, Fairleigh Dickinson University Peter Woolley, Fairleigh Dickinson University Campaigning on Controversy: Gay Marriage, Stem Cell Research, and Voting in the 2004 Presidential Election Thursday, May 17 Thursday, Andrew R. Binder, University of Wisconsin-Madison We Know “It” Makes a Difference, but What Is “It”?: An Exploration of Factors Driving Voter Choices and the “Meaning” behind Them Eric W. Rademacher, University of Cincinnati Thursday CELL PHONE SURVEYING: COVERAGE BIAS 8:00 a.m. – 9:30 a.m. Terrace DEF Chair: Paul J. Lavrakas, Nielsen Media Research Discussant: Audience members The Prevalence of Wireless Substitution and Its Impact on Random-Digit-Dial Health Surveys of Young Adults and Adults in Poverty Stephen J. Blumberg, National Center for Health Statistics Julian V. Luke, National Center for Health Statistics What’s Missing from National RDD Surveys? The Impact of the Growing Cell-Only Population Scott Keeter, Pew Research Center Courtney Kennedy, University of Michigan Trevor Tompson, The Associated Press Mike Mokrzycki, The Associated Press April Clark, Pew Research Center An Assessment of Bias Due to Noncoverage of Wireless-Only Households in RDD Surveys of Households with Young Children Meena Khare, National Center for Health Statistics Sadeq Chowdhury, NORC Kirk Wolter, NORC James A. Singleton, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Thursday ISSUES IN MEASURING RACE AND ETHNICITY 8:00 a.m. – 9:30 a.m. Garden 1-2 Chair: Marla Cralley, Arbitron Discussant: Christian Collet, Doshisha University Response Differences to Implicit and Explicit Race-Matching Patricia A. LeBaron, University of Michigan P. Denise Cobb, Southern Illinois University-Edwardsville Cindy Boland-Perez, University of Arkansas-Little Rock 6 Examining the Signifi cance of Racial/Ethnic Designations among Non-U.S. Citizens Vincent E. Welch, NORC Kristy Webber, NORC Thomas B. Hoffer, NORC Brian Lisek, NORC New Immigrants, New Complexities: Measuring Race in Surveys Kate E. Dalton, NORC The Mixed Message: Reliability and Consistency for Race and Ethnicity Data for the Same Individuals from Different Sources and Over Time Iain Noble, Department for Education and Skills (UK) Thursday ASSESSING INTERVIEWER PERFORMANCE 8:00 a.m. – 9:30 a.m. Garden 3 Chair: Nat Ehrlich, Michigan State University May 17 Thursday, Discussant: Keith Smith, RTI International Evaluating the Performance of Telephone Interviewers Nat Ehrlich, Michigan State University Larry A. Hembroff, Michigan State University Validating Field Interviewers’ Work for Verifi cation, Quality and Confi dentiality Standards Suzanne Bard, NORC Maureen Bonner, NORC A Tool for Monitoring Field Interviewer Work Patterns in the National Survey on Drug Use and Health Joe Murphy, RTI International Adam Safi r, RTI International Susan Myers, RTI International Measuring Interviewer Performance: Are We Over-Quantifying? Angela N. Knittle, Franklin & Marshall College Berwood A. Yost, Franklin & Marshall College Jennifer L. Harding, Franklin & Marshall College Thursday INCREASING RESPONSE AND COMPLETION RATES ON THE WEB 8:00 a.m. – 9:30 a.m. Garden 4 Chair: Paul Schroeder, Schulman, Ronca & Bucuvalas Discussant: David Jones Roe, RTI International Assessment of Variations in Response Rate to Web-Based Student Surveys Ananda Mitra, Wake Forest University Thomas McCoy, Wake Forest University Heather Champion, Wake Forest University Mary O’Brian, Wake Forest University Mayank Gupta, Wake Forest University Mark Wolfson, Wake Forest University Should I Stay or Should I Go? The Effects of Progress Indicators, Promised Duration, and Questionnaire Length on Completing Web Surveys Ting Yan, University of Michigan Frederick G. Conrad, University of Michigan Roger Tourangeau, University of Maryland Mick P. Couper, University of Michigan Encouraging Web Responses among College Students: An Experiment Julie Ladinsky, Mathematica Policy Research Geraldine Mooney, Mathematica Policy Research Laura Kalb, Mathematica Policy Research Do Tailored Messages of Encouragement Reduce Web Survey Break-offs? Joseph W. Sakshaug, University of Michigan Scott D. Crawford, Survey Sciences Group Karen K. Inkelas, University of Maryland 7 Thursday THE RELIGIOUS FACTOR 8:00 a.m. – 9:30 a.m. Madrid Chair: Micheline Blum, Blum & Weprin Associates Discussant: Murray Edelman, Rutgers University Examination of Types and Effects of Spiritual Seeking Kumar Rao, Knowledge Networks Dwayne Ball, University of Nebraska-Lincoln Ronald Hampton, University of Nebraska-Lincoln The Dynamic Religion Factor in Worldwide Public Life: How Well Does the U.S. State Department Understand Worldwide Societal Attitudes on Religion? Brian J. Grim, Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life Roger Finke, Pennsylvania State University Richard Wike, Pew Global Attitudes Project Religious Characteristics of American Muslims Gregory A. Smith, Pew Research Center John C. Green, Pew Research Center Amaney Jamal, Princeton University Daniel A. Cox, Pew Research Center My God’s Better Than Yours: Public Opinion and Religious Affect Jennifer De Pinto, CBS News Monika L. McDermott, University of Connecticut Thursday POLLS, POLITICIANS AND THE PUBLIC Thursday, May 17 Thursday, 8:00 a.m. – 9:30 a.m. Imperial Chair: Robert Eisinger, Lewis and Clark College Discussant: Kathleen A. Frankovic, CBS News Exit Polls and the Interpretation of Election Results Michael W. Traugott, University of Michigan The Foreign Policy Disconnect: Multilateralist Public, Unilateralist Offi cials Benjamin I. Page, University of Chicago Politicians’ Use of Polls: Can’t Trust ‘Em, Can’t Ignore ‘Em David W. Moore, Durham, NH The Second Face of Polling: The Use and Misuse of Polls by Politicians Lawrence R. Jacobs, University of Minnesota REFRESHMENT BREAK Thursday Sponsored by SPSS 9:30 a.m. – 10:00 a.m. Foyer between Royal Ballroom & Terrace Room CONCURRENT SESSION B Thursday THE 2006 ELECTIONS 10:00 a.m. – 11:30 a.m. Terrace ABC Chair: Michael W. Traugott, University of Michigan Discussant: Charles Franklin, University of Wisconsin-Madison Anatomy of a Political Ad: An Empirical Evaluation of the 2006 Michael J. Fox Stem Cell Research Advertisment Christopher Paul Borick, Muhlenberg College Stem Cell Publics: Issue Involvement in the 2006 Midterm Elections Kajsa E. Dalrymple, University of Wisconsin-Madison Amy B. Becker, University of Wisconsin-Madison Dietram Scheufele, University of Wisconsin-Madison Dominique Brossard, University of Wisconsin-Madison Consumer Confi dence and the 2006 Election Trevor Tompson, The Associated Press Michael