0 CLIMATE CHANGE ACTION PLAN Province of Cavite Climate change refers to a change in the state of the climate that can be identified (e.g., by using statistical tests) by changes in the mean and/or the variability of its properties, and that persists for an extended period, typically decades or longer. Climate change may be due to natural internal processes or external forcings such as modulations of the solar cycles, volcanic eruptions, and persistent anthropogenic changes in the composition of the atmosphere or in land use. Note that the Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), in its Article 1, defines climate change as: „a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods.‟ The UNFCCC thus makes a distinction between climate change attributable to human activities altering the atmospheric composition, and climate variability attributable to natural causes (Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability SUMMARY FOR POLICYMAKERS, page 4). An Integrated Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was established by the United Nations and World Meteorological Society in 1988 to generate an assessment report on climate change. The panel, composed of around 800 scientists from 80 countries, published its first assessment report in 1990. These reports have validated three (3) key messages that (a) warming of the climate is unequivocal; (b) many observed impacts are happening more quickly than previously predicted such as amplification of extreme weather events, intensified tropical cyclone and extreme rains and (c) it is extremely likely that humans are the major drivers of climate change. 1 The most recent United Nations report on climate change released concluded that the warming of the planet will hit the poor the hardest, particularly those who depend on agriculture and fisheries for income and subsistence. The poor will be hit in two major ways: rice and corn farmers will experience significant decreases in crop yields while the same reduced crop yields, together with growing population, will drive up food prices, making food less affordable for those in poverty. Global warming's toll on the world's aquatic resources are also harming fishermen everywhere. The change in ocean temperature and ocean acidification will only exacerbate massive coral bleaching leading to reduced catch of marine resources. While people from all levels of the economic ladder are affected by extreme weather events linked to climate change, the poor definitely bear the brunt and stand to face the deadliest of consequences. The poor are less equipped to adapt their way of life and livelihood to climate change and are less able to bounce back after the phenomenon's effects hit them. 2 So what needs to be done? Help reduce or maintain low GHG (Greenhouse gases) emissions, enhance disaster risk reduction and management and implement climate change adaptation on all levels of governance and policy. Situational Analysis Cavite belongs to Type 1 Climate based on the Climate Map of the Philippines by the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA). Being a Type 1, Cavite has two (2) pronounced seasons: dry from November to April and wet during the rest of the year. In the year 2010, the average temperature of the province is at 27.6oC. January and February are the coolest months with an average of 25.15oC. The province has received a total of 2,056.1mm of rainfall in 2010. August and October are the rainiest months while there is no rainfall experienced during the month of February. (Table 3.6) Table 1. AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AND RAINFALL BY MONTH, PROVINCE OF CAVITE Average Temperature Average Rainfall Month (oC) (millimeters) January 24.45* 5.8 February 25.85* 0 March 26.7* 10.4 April 27.3* 45.4 May 27.85* 36.8 June 27.2 151.2 July 29.9 355.9 August 26.5 375.2 September 29.6 291.8 October 29.1 444.7 November 28.8 240.9 December 28.0 98.0 Source: *PAG-ASA CvSUAgromet Research Station, PAG-ASA, Sangley Point Field Office Historical Temperature Record Based on data culled from PAGASA, from the Agromet Station in Sangley Point, Cavite City (1981-2010), the maximum average temperature for the Province was around 31.8 degrees Centigrade, the minimum was 24.7 degrees centigrade and the mean was about 28.4 degrees centigrade. 3 Table 2. HISTORICAL TEMPERATURE RECORD Source: PAGASA Moreover, for Seasonal temperature increases (in °C) in 2020 and 2050 under medium-range emission scenario, the Province utilized the projections and computation formulated by PAGASA under the MDGF-1566 Project of NEDA. It was found out that the Province for 2020 (2006-2035) projections would have a DJF (December-January-February) Mean Temperature of 26.0 degree Celsius, a one (1) degree increase from the observe baseline temperature of 25.7 degree celsius (1971-2000). On the other hand, for 2050 projections (2036-2065), the Province would have a DJF Mean Temperature of 27.7 degree Celsius or a two (2) degrees centigrade increase. Table 3. SEASONAL TEMPERATURE INCREASES IN °C IN 2020 AND 2050 UNDER MEDIUM- RANGE EMISSION IN PROVINCES IN REGION IV-A Observed Baseline (1971-2000) Change in 2020 (2006-2035) Change in 2050 (2036-2065) DJF MAM JJA SON DJF MAM JJA SON DJF MAM JJA SON Region 4-A Batangas 24.2 26.5 25.9 25.6 1 1.2 0.9 1 1.9 2.2 1.8 1.9 Cavite 25.7 28.2 27.3 26.9 1 1.2 0.9 1 2 2.2 1.8 1.9 Laguna 25 27.5 27.5 26.7 0.9 1.1 1 0.9 1.8 2.1 1.9 1.9 Quezon 25.1 27.2 27.6 26.7 0.9 1.1 1 0.9 1.8 2.1 2 1.8 Rizal 25.4 27.9 27.6 26.8 0.9 1.1 0.9 1 1.9 2.1 1.8 1.9 Table 4. SEASONAL RAINFALL INCREASES IN °C IN 2020 AND 2050 UNDER MEDIUM - RANGE EMISSION IN PROVINCES IN REGION IV-A Observed Baseline (1971-2000) Change in 2020 (2006-2035) Change in 2050 (2036-2065) DJF MAM JJA SON DJF MAM JJA SON DJF MAM JJA SON Region 4-A Batangas 231 280.4 856.5 746.4 -29.9 -24.1 9.1 0.5 -11.1 -23.1 17.2 6.3 Cavite 124.9 242.8 985.7 579 -26.1 -28.2 13.1 0.4 -19.1 -30.5 24.2 5.9 Laguna 629.2 386.8 845 1066.5 -20.2 -31.5 2.9 2.9 0.1 -34.8 6.8 0.4 Quezon 827.7 382.7 670 1229.3 -6.5 -18.6 2.9 5.2 6.6 -20.6 6.5 0.9 Rizal 262.4 241.5 1001.3 821.8 -13.5 -30.7 12.4 -0.9 -11.5 -39.8 24.8 -0.8 Source: PAGASA 4 Projected Climate Change Since Climate Change is inevitable, the respective LGUs should brace itself for its effects and implement the necessary mode of actions to adapt or mitigate its eventualities, one of these by knowing the right information and important data related thereto. The Province, still based on the parameters indicated under the publication “Climate Change in the Philippines, February 2011) by PAGASA, the Seasonal rainfall change (in %) in 2020 and 2050 under medium-range emission scenario is 92.31 mm for 2020 and about 101.40 mm for 2050, an increase of 9.09 mm of rainfall. It is also worth mentioning that the number of dry days in the Province is projected to lessen from 6,635 days for 2020 projections to 6,565 days for 2050, meaning wetter days is ahead for the Province. Global sea-level rise is another hazard caused by the melting of ice glaciers and mountain ice caps and the thermal expansion of ocean waters. At the local level, sea-level rise is also attributed to the over-extraction of groundwater resources for drinking and domestic purposes, which causes subsidence. Data from DENR show that the mean sea-level of Manila Bay had risen to +0.183 m and +0.142 m for the periods 1970-79 and 1980-89, respectively. In the succeeding decade, 1990-2000, sea-level increased by +0.168 m (Mainstreaming Community-Based Adaptation to Climate Variability and Sea-Level Rise into Integrated Coastal Management: The Case of Cavite City, Philippines by Ramon Faustino M. Sales, Jr., Ph.D., 2008) Sea-level rise causes flooding of low-lying coastal areas, coastal erosion, and saltwater intrusion into groundwater resources of the barangay. Anecdotal accounts from local residents reveal that shoreline changes have taken place due to sea-level rise. Data from NOAA/Laboratory Satellite Altimetry TOPEX, J1 and J2, shows that the Province has an observed sea-level rise of about 7 mm/year (September 1992-June 2012) or about 56mm from 2012-2020 or a total of 266 mm up to 2050. To put this in its proper perspective, the global sea-level rise for the past century was around .17 m On the other hand, with regards to the frequency of extreme events (El Nino and La Nina) or in the number of days with a temperature of more than 35 degrees centigrade, for 2020 projections it has 1,697 days and this would increase to 2,733 days by 2050, or an additional 1,037 days of intense heat.