Cut-off lows over South Africa and their contribution to the total rainfall of the Eastern Cape Province by Samuel Molekwa Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree MASTER OF SCIENCE in the Faculty of Natural and Agricultural Sciences University of Pretoria May 2013 © University of Pretoria DECLARATION I, Samuel Molekwa, declare that the dissertation / thesis, which I hereby submit for the degree Master Science at the University of Pretoria, is my own work and has not previously been submitted by me for a degree at this or any other tertiary institution. SIGNATURE DATE ii © University of Pretoria Cut-off lows over South Africa and their contribution to the total rainfall of the Eastern Cape Province Samuel Molekwa Supervisor: Prof. C.J.deW. Rautenbach Co-supervisor Ms C. J. Engelbrecht Department: Department of Geography,Geoinformatics and Meteorology Faculty: Faculty of Natural and Agricultural Sciences University: University of Pretoria Degree: Master of Science in Meteorology Summary Cut-Off Lows (COLs) are certainly amongst the most important synoptic-scale rain producing weather systems in South Africa. Rainfall associated with COLs is usually widespread, while about 20% of COLs are associated with heavy rainfall. Both these attributes of rainfall associated with COLs are important to agriculture. Widespread rainfall secures good grazing potential, while heavy rainfall not only contributes largely to maintaining dam levels that are needed for irrigation, but also to flooding and erosion. Agriculture in the Eastern Cape Province of South Africa is predominantly rain-fed, while agricultural activities that depend on irrigation are mostly located along the western coastal belt of the province. Despite of the fact that all COLs do not pass directly over the Eastern Cape Province, most of them appear to have a direct or indirect influence on the rainfall of the province, and in turn, impact on agricultural production and even the economy. In this study, the contribution of COLs to rainfall over the Eastern Cape Province is investigated. In order to achieve this, a climatology of COLs for the period 1979 to 2009 (31 years) was constructed by utilizing the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP-NCAR) reanalysis data to create 6-hourly contour images of geopotential heights and air-temperatures at the 500 hPa pressure level. All COLs that occurred over South Africa bounded by 200S to 400S and 00E to 500E from the day they started (at the formation of a closed low pressure system) until the day they ended (at the disappearance of the closed low pressure system), and that were cold cored, were considered as potential COLs in this study. In addition, low level circulation maps obtained from the South African Weather Service’s (SAWS’s) daily weather bulletins were used to ensure that the defined COLs were indeed extending from the 500 hPa pressure level to the land surface. Daily rainfall totals from 22 well-distributed weather stations over the Eastern Cape Province were used to determine the contribution of COLs to the rainfall over the province. iii © University of Pretoria It was found that 64% of COLs that lasted for more than 24-hours over the study domain had an influence on the total rainfall over the Eastern Cape Province. Monthly frequency distribution of COLs reveal that April and May had the highest occurrences, while December and January have the least occurrence. Long-term seasonal frequencies distributions of COLs show the highest occurrence during March-April-May (MAM) with the least occurrences during December-January-February (DJF). Most COLs lasted for 2-4 days over South Africa and the Eastern Cape Province for the study period of 31- years. The contribution of rainfall associated with the occurrence of COLs is found to be approximate 37-38% annually along the coastal areas, while it is less than 10% annually over the interior of the Eastern Cape Province. ii © University of Pretoria ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The author would like to express his appreciation to the following persons and institutions who have contributed towards the success of the research: The Agricultural Research Council (ARC) for providing a bursary for the research. Agricultural Research Council - Institute for Soil, Climate and Water (ARC-ISCW) for helping with the resources, such as work space, computers and a telephone. Prof. C.J. deW. Rautenbach, the study leader, for his support and guidance and providing a suitable learning environment at the University of Pretoria. The ARC-ISCW librarian, Rejaene Van Dyk, for helping me with the study material and information services. The librarians of the South African Weather Service (SAWS), Karin and Anastasia for helping to find articles and Weather bulletins. Dawn Mahlobo from the South African Weather Service (SAWS) for providing the daily observed rainfall data. Dr. Mokhele Moeletsi from the ARC-ISCW for all technical assistance, especially on ArcGIS software used during the research work. Philip Beukes from the ARC-ISCW for his assistance with the GIS (ArcMap) software installation and use. Maria Manana, family and friends for encouraging and supporting me through the study period. The almighty God for granting me with the strength and wisdom to begin and conclude this study in healthier and good mind. iii © University of Pretoria TABLE OF CONTENTS CHAPTER 1 Introduction 1 1.1 Background 1 1.2 South Africa 3 1.2.1 Geographical location 3 1.2.2 Topography and drainage 4 1.2.3 Climate and climatic variability 5 1.2.4 Weather systems 7 1.3 Cut-off lows 9 1.4 Agriculture and rainfall 12 1.5 Agriculture and cut-off lows 12 1.6 Motivation for the research 13 1.7 Aim and objectives of the research 14 1.8 Organization of the report 15 CHAPTER 2 The study domain 17 2.1 Introduction 17 2.2 The Eastern Cape Province 17 2.2.1 Geographical location 17 2.2.2 Topography and drainage 18 2.2.3 Climate of the Eastern Cape Province 20 2.2.3.1 Rainfall and temperature 21 2.2.4 Agriculture of the Eastern Cape Province 25 2.2.5 Population 26 2.2.6 Infrastructure 26 2.2.7 Water availability 27 CHAPTER 3 Data, information and methodology 28 3.1 Introduction 28 iv © University of Pretoria 3.2 Observational data 28 3.2.1 Upper air data 28 3.2.2 Surface synoptic charts 29 3.2.3 Station data 31 3.3 Methodology 33 3.3.1 Identification of cut-off lows over South Africa 33 3.3.2 Identification of cut-off lows over the Eastern Cape Province 34 3.3.3 The duration of cut-off lows over both South Africa and the Eastern Cape Province 35 3.3.4 Rainfall associated with cut-off lows over the Eastern Cape Province 35 3.3.5 Contribution of cut-off lows to the total rainfall of the Eastern Cape Province 36 CHAPTER 4 Climatology of cut-off lows 37 4.1 Introduction 4.2 Climatology of cut-off lows over South Africa and the Eastern Cape Province 37 4.2.1 Inter-annual variability in cut-off lows frequencies 37 4.2.2 Monthly long-term average distribution 39 4.2.3 Seasonal frequency distribution of cut-off lows 40 4.3 Summary 45 CHAPTER 5 Locations and duration of cut-off lows 46 5.1 Introduction 46 5.2 Location of cut-off lows over South Africa and the Eastern Cape Province 46 5.2.1 Inter-annual variability of cut-off lows over South Africa and the Eastern Cape Province for regions A, B, C and D 47 5.2.2 Seasonal frequency of cut-off lows over regions A, B, C and D 51 5.3 Duration of cut-off lows over South Africa and the Eastern Cape Province 52 5.3.1 Seasonal distribution of the duration of cut-off lows over South Africa and the Eastern Cape Province 53 v © University of Pretoria 5.4 Summary 55 CHAPTER 6 Spatial rainfall distribution associated with cut-off lows 56 6.1 Introduction 56 6.2 Rainfall distribution associated with cut-off lows 56 6.3 Durations of cut-off lows during various rainfall categories 58 6.4 Spatial rainfall distribution associated by cut-off lows 59 6.4.1 Region A 62 6.4.2 Region B 65 6.4.3 Region C 66 6.4.4 Region D 67 6.5 Contribution of cut-off lows to the total annual rainfall 68 6.5.1 Total annual rainfall contribution 68 6.6 Summary 71 CHAPTER 7 Conclusion and recommendations 72 7.1 Summary 72 7.2 Conclusion 72 7.3 Recommendation 74 References 76 APPENDIX A 81 APPENDIX B 82 APPENDIX C 83 APPENDIX D 94 vi © University of Pretoria LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AA Annual Average AO Atlantic Ocean ABFZ Angola Benguela Frontal Zone AC Annual Average Contribution of Cut-off lows AGIS Agricultural Geo-Referenced Information System ARC-ISCW Agricultural Research Council-Institute for Soil Water and Climate amsl above mean sea level COLs Cut-Off Lows DBSA Development Bank of Southern Africa DJF December-January-February ECDC Eastern Cape Development Corporation FAO Food and Agriculture Organization GrADS Grid Analysis and Display System GDP Gross Domestic Product GIS Geographic Information System GFI Gross Farming Income GMT Greenwich Mean Time hPa hectopascal IO Indian Ocean ITCZ Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone JFM January-February-March JJA June-July-August MAM March-April-May NCEP-NCAR National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration PO Pacific Ocean PSA Pacific South America SAST South African Standard Time SAWS South African Weather Service SH Southern Hemisphere SON September-October-November SST Sea Surface Temperature vii © University of Pretoria LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1.1: A map of South Africa with its nine provinces.