Early Warning and Response Directorate DRMFSS, MoA Early Warning and Response Analysis May 2013 This bulletin is prepared by the Early Warning and Response Directorate to coordinate and disseminate early warning and food security information. For any comments, questions or suggestions and/or to receive the bulletin on your email please write to [email protected] If you are planning to contribute to the response effort, please inform DRMFSS by writing to [email protected] Released on May 14, 2013 2 Early Warning and Response Analysis, May 2013 Contents Acronyms ........................................................................................................................................................... 3 Early Warning and Response Summary for May 2013 ...................................................................................... 4 Weather Conditions........................................................................................................................................... 5 Agriculture ......................................................................................................................................................... 6 Food Markets ..................................................................................................................................................... 6 Nutrition ............................................................................................................................................................ 8 Response ......................................................................................................................................................... 11 Appendix .......................................................................................................................................................... 12 Early Warning and Response Directorate, MoA 3 Early Warning and Response Analysis, May 2013 ACRONYMS: CPI: Consumer Price Index CSA: Central Statistical Agency DRMFSS: Disaster Risk Management and Food Security Sector: EGTE: Ethiopian Grain Trade Enterprise EHNRI: Ethiopian Health and Nutrition Research Institute ENCU: Emergency Nutrition Coordination Unit FAO: Food and Agriculture Organization FMOH: Federal Ministry of Health GAM: Global Acute Malnutrition HRF: Humanitarian Response Fund IMC: International Medical Corps MAM: Moderate Acute Malnutrition NMA: National Meteorological Agency OTP: Outpatient Therapeutic Program PLW: Pregnant and Lactating Women SAM: Severe Acute Malnutrition TFU: Therapeutic Feeding Unit TSF: Targeted Supplementary Food TSFP: Targeted Supplementary Feeding Program WFP: World Food Programme Early Warning and Response Directorate, MoA 4 Early Warning and Response Analysis, May 2013 EARLY WARNING AND RESPONSE SUMMARY As per the NMA forecast during the upcoming month, the strength of rain producing systems will continue in a similar manner. As a result, better rainfall amount and distribution is anticipated over most parts of the southern half of the country. Farmers are advised to exploit the expected good opportunity and continue the ongoing agricultural activities appropriately in the areas where normal to above normal rainfall is expected (SNNPR, western and southern Oromiya). Moreover the expected normal to above normal rainfall over pastoral and agro pastoral areas of the country would favor the availability of pasture and drinking water in these areas. There will be a chance of below normal rainfall over eastern Amhara and Tigray including some areas of Afar. Therefore proper water harvesting techniques should be practiced in order to use the expected limited moisture efficiently. The Food and Non-Alcoholic beverages CPI stabilized between March and April 2013. This is contrary to seasonal expectations as represented by the 5 year average which predict a rising trend over the same period. As has been the case throughout the year, price levels remain elevated when compared to the 5 year average The Cereal and Bread CPI increased moderately between March and April 2013. This is in line with seasonal expectations as represented by the 5 year average, though slightly stronger than predicted (1.8% compared with 1.2%). As has been the case throughout the year, price levels remain elevated when compared to the 5 year average. The Cereal and Bread CPI in majority of regions showed a moderate increase between March and April 2013. Exceptions to this include Benishangul Gumuz -4.6% and Gambella 8.7%. Attention should be given to the increasing price of cereals in Tigray region in light of upward trends over the last few months, high yearly cereal price inflation and poor planting performance in the Southern zone for Belg crops. TFP admissions trend at national level increased slightly by 3 percent in March. The actual increase is confounded by CHD screening conducted in February in Amhara and Oromiya regions. TFP admissions increased by 67 percent in March in SNNPR associated with CHD screening and late TSF response. Hotspot priority one woredas increased by 27 percent from 89 in February to 113 in April. Overall hotspot priority 1 to 3 woredas increased by 4.3 percent from 327 to 341 during the same period. Timely and comprehensive (good coverage) and combination nutrition responses is critical for preventing and avoiding an unusual increase in acute malnutrition in hotspot woredas between April and June. Early Warning and Response Directorate, MoA 5 Early Warning and Response Analysis, May 2013 WEATHER CONDITIONS April 2013 weather conditions Map 1: Rainfall distribution in mm for the month of Map 2: Percent of normal rainfall distribution for April 2013 April 2013 Source: NMA Source: NMA During the month of April 2013, pocket areas of As indicated in map 2, most parts of Somali southwestern SNNPR and pocket areas of region, southern Afar, central and southeastern southern highlands of southern Oromiya Amhara, central, eastern and southern Oromiya, experienced falls greater than 300 mm. The northeastern Tigray, most parts of SNNPR and Southern half of SNNPR and parts of eastern Gambella experienced normal to above normal and southern Oromiya experienced falls ranging rainfall during the month under review. Below to from 200 – 300mm. Most parts of the northern much below normal rainfall has been observed for half of SNNPR, parts of southern Somali, parts the rest of the country. of southern and eastern Oromiya received falls ranging from 100 – 200 mm. The Southern half of Gambella, most parts of Somali, central Oromiya, and southern Afar, a few areas of central and southeastern Amhara exhibited falls ranging from 50 - 100mm. The Northern half of Gambela, parts of western and northern Oromiya, central and eastern Amhara, parts of eastern Tigray, northern Somali and parts of central and western Afar received falls from 25 - 50mm. Parts of western Oromiya, parts of western Amhara, central Tigray and the northern half of Afar received 5 - 25 mm of rainfall. There was little or no rainfall over most parts of Benishangul Gumuz, western Amhara Map 3: Number of Rainy day days for the month of and western Tigray. April 2013 Source: NMA Early Warning and Response Directorate, MoA 6 Early Warning and Response Analysis, May 2013 Pocket areas of the southern highlands of expected normal to above normal rainfall over Oromiya received falls in more than 25 rainy pastoral and agro pastoral areas of the country days. Parts of southern Oromia and a few areas of would favor the availability of pasture and southern SNNPR received falls in 20 – 25 rainy drinking water over these areas. There will be a days. Most parts of SNNPR, southwestern margin chance of below normal rainfall over eastern of Somali, parts of central and southern Oromiya Amhara and Tigray including some areas of received 15 – 20 rainy days. Parts of western, Afar. Therefore proper water harvesting northern and eastern parts of SNNPR, parts of techniques should be practiced in order to use eastern Oromiya and most parts of southern the expected limited moisture efficiently. Somali received falls in 10 – 15 days. Southeastern Gambela, parts of central and AGRICULTURE eastern Oromiya, the western half of Amhara, southern Tigray and parts of northeastern Tigray, Belg crop planting is under good progress in the southern and western margin of Afar, parts of almost all Belg growing areas of the country as northern, central and southeastern Somali received compared to the planned area coverage. falls in 5 - 10 rainy days. Hence, the observed good distribution of rainfall could have a positive In Oromia region, planting as a percentage of impact on season’s agricultural activities like planned planting is estimated at 88.7% in West sowing and land preparation of long cycle crops Hararghe, 79.1% in Arsi, 83% in Bale, 46.1% in like maize and sorghum. North Wollo, 41.4% in South Wollo, 48.3% in North Showa and 0.5% in Oromia zone. Weather outlook and possible impact for the coming month/May 1-31, 2013 In Tigray crop stand is very weak in Belg growing Southern zone of Tigray. Meher land Normally during the month May there is a preparation is ongoing. gradual decrease of moisture towards the second half of the month particularly over the In SNNPR Belg crops are performing well, in northern half of the Belg growing areas of the most parts of the region, Belg crops are in country. On the contrary, in relation to the planting-growth stage. Maize is at flowering gradual strength of Kiremt rain giving systems stage in Bench Maji, Gedeo