NO. 9 MARCH 2020 Introduction Multilateralism Variants, Potential, Constraints and Conditions for Success Hanns W. Maull In view of the current challenges facing world politics and its specific structural conditions (national sovereignty, power diffusion), multilateralism appears to be an almost indispensable form of international diplomacy. Nevertheless, it seems controversial: multilateralism is currently under fire, particularly from the White House and the State Department, whilst both China’s President Xi Jinping and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin pose as advocates and defenders of multilateral- ism. On closer inspection, however, the controversy is not about multilateralism as a diplomatic procedure, but essentially about the question of which principles, values and organizations should determine the international order and thus shape inter- national politics. At the same time, the inherent difficulties and limitations of multi- lateralism are often underestimated, and its potential overestimated. In order to make multilateralism as effective as possible, a realistic assessment of its precondi- tions and a wise understanding of the peculiarities of multilateral politics are there- fore essential. “Multilateralism” is axiomatic for German “Multilateralism”: foreign policy. The same applies to the a clarification of terms Common Foreign and Security Policy and the Common Security and Defence Policy of Furthermore, outside the EU, governments the European Union (Article 21 EU-Treaty). appear firmly committed to multilateral- It is in this spirit that the Foreign Office ism, at least if we are to believe the ringing (together with the French Foreign Ministry) endorsements offered by China’s President launched the “Alliance for Multilateralism” Xi Jinping, his Russian counterpart Vladi- in September 2019. But what exactly does it mir Putin, or the Indian President Narendra mean when the Federal Foreign Office on Modi. Yet it is questionable that they all its homepage describes “the commitment to mean the same thing when they express multilateralism” as one of the “guard rails their support for multilateralism. of German foreign policy”? So: what is multilateralism? First, it simply means the coordinated diplomatic interaction of three or more states (or other actors) in international politics. According although it would also be promoted “multi- to this definition, the term is not contro- laterally”, i.e. together with others. versial; “multilateral” foreign and security It is this meaning of the term that seems policy stands in contrast to bilateral or uni- to prevail in international politics today. In lateral action. This understanding of multi- this sense, the notion of “multilateralism” lateralism (“Multilateralism I”) is therefore a contains, conveys and transports norms and purely formal category: multilateral policy values; it identifies the ends and the appro- is about the “how” not the “what”, about priate means to conduct foreign policy; the conduct rather than the substance and and it concerns the international order con- goals of international politics. In short, this sidered desirable and the regulatory policies version of multilateralism is a diplomatic considered conducive to it by a specific approach to achieving certain unspecified actor. These ideas will often not be made ends. explicit, however, and even be deliberately German foreign policy uses the concept disguised. Multilateralism in this sense is of multilateralism with a different, rather therefore no longer primarily about acting more exigent interpretation (“Multilateral- together with others, but rather about ism II”). This combines coordinated diplo- securing certain objectives and interests matic interactions of more than two actors that are closely linked to highly specific with action within the framework of inter- (and possibly controversial) ideas of inter- national organizations, oriented towards national order. Multilateralism II a priori the principles and norms and carried out in does not say anything about which princi- accordance with the rules and regulations ples, values, norms, rules, organizations that underlie those organizations (such as, and procedures (should) be followed in for example, the United Nations Charter). the conduct of international affairs. But if In this version, a multilateral foreign policy “multilateralism” is elevated into a prin- stands not only for a specific diplomatic ciple (as in the case of German foreign approach, but also for a commitment to policy), or (more precisely) if it is freighted certain principles, substantive goals and with certain principles and values, then we methods of foreign policy – and for an are in fact dealing with several, possibly underlying set of values. very different and even controversial notions Multilateralism thus comes to stand for of multilateralism, with – as is currently foreign policy action within the normative the case – the views of important actors framework of a system of ideas about what differing about the desirable ideological diplomacy should strive for, and by what and normative foundations of the inter- means it should pursue its goals. Occasion- national order. ally there is talk of a “multilateral system” The fact that there is no broad consensus that must be preserved (as, for example, in in world politics today on the principles the Norwegian Foreign Ministry’s White and norms of the international order is Paper on multilateralism). This “system” ignored by the third meaning of the term is in fact the liberal, Western-style inter- multilateralism (“Multilateralism III”). Here, national order of 1945 in its renewed “multilateralism” refers to the “right” and version of 1990. “appropriate” answers to the current prob- “Multilateralism II” refers to foreign lems of world politics and thus stands for and security policies that seek to establish, effective world governance. The European maintain and further develop a specific, Union’s first Security Strategy of 2003 spe- normative international order through cifically used this understanding when it specific forms of international diplomacy. developed the notion of “effective multi- The order may be the currently disintegrat- lateralism” as its guiding concept; today, ing liberal international order, but it could however, the word “multilateralism” often also be another, quite different order that seems to be equated with “effective global would be based on a different ideology, governance”. SWP Comment 9 March 2020 2 If “Multilateralism II” stands for (various ogies to the danger of nuclear war. At the and controversial) regulatory ideas about same time, according to assessments by world politics, “Multilateralism III” ex- the respective expert communities, many presses the principle of hope. In order to of those challenges place extraordinarily fulfil this hope and to exploit the potential high demands on the performance of inter- of effective multilateralism, however, two national politics in terms of global gov- types of hurdles would need to be over- ernance: decisive progress often appears come. First, there must be consensus about possible only when many actors work the normative foundations and the concrete together in broad coalitions bringing to- contents of multilateral diplomacy: what is gether not only states, but also non-state at stake, what ends are to be achieved, what actors such as international organizations, interests and values are to be accommodated civil society actors or companies. The influ- and how – and what concepts of inter- ence of even the largest powers (such as national order will thereby be promoted. the USA or the People’s Republic of China) None of this can be contested or contro- alone would not be sufficient. versial. Diffuse distribution of power and the principle The second hurdle on the road to effec- of sovereignty. International politics will tive multilateralism concerns its organiza- continue to be determined by the absence tion and implementation. Even where there of hierarchy and a broad distribution of is broad agreement on principles, values power. This is due on the one hand to gen- and goals, we have necessary but not yet erally accepted principles of the current sufficient preconditions for effective multi- world order, in particular the principles lateralism. Multilateral cooperation within of territoriality and sovereignty of nation the framework of the Paris Convention on states, and on the other hand to the large Climate Policy demonstrates this: it is based number of state and non-state actors that on common principles, standards and pro- influence the course of world politics. The cedures. Yet multilateral climate policy is United Nations is now approaching 200 far from slowing global warming to the state members, and there is also a rapidly, desired and necessary extent. The specific sometimes exponentially growing universe problems and limitations of multilateral of governmental and non-governmental action are the crux here. international organizations, civil society actors and transnational corporations. The potential for shaping multilateralism. It is Why do we need “multilateral” often assumed that if international coopera- foreign policy? tion were sufficiently broad, it would be possible to develop options on a global scale Anyone who argues in favour of multilater- that would be analogous to those available alism (i.e. for all three meanings of the term) to the nation state within its own territory, generally relates it to