Public Opinion In Belarus 1999 A Publication in the VOICES OF THE ELECTORATE Series Larissa Titarenko, Ph.D. November 1999 Prepared for International Foundation for Election Systems 1101 15th Street, NW, Third Floor Washington, DC 20005 phone: (202) 828-8507 fax: (202) 452-0804 Public Opinion In Belarus 1999 Opinion Research at IFES is a global program seeking to develop reliable and accurate opinion indicators. Results from IFES-sponsored surveys and focus group discussions are published in the IFES Voices of the Electorate series. For more information on opinion research at IFES, please call the IFES Development and New Initiatives Office. Use of information from this publication is permitted, provided the following statement is attached in 10-point type: "Source: International Foundation for Election Systems." As a courtesy only, we request that you advise us when using any data from this report This Publication was made possible through support provided by the Office of Democracy and Governance, Bureau for Europe and the New Independent States, U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), under the terms of Cooperative Agreement No. EE-A-00- 97-00034-00. The opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or IFES. International Foundation for Election Systems, Washington, DC 20005 Public Opinion in Belarus: 1999 Published November 1999 Printed in the United States of America ISBN 1-879720-62-0 TABLE OF CONTENTS INTRODUCTION................................................................................................................ 1 SUMMARY ...................................................................................................................... 3 INTERPRETATION AND IMPLICATIONS FOR THE FUTURE ...................................................... 7 THE ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT IN BELARUS.................................................................... 12 Evaluation of the General Situation ............................................................................ 12 Evaluation of the Economic Future............................................................................. 14 Support for a Market Economy................................................................................... 17 Information about Economic Issues............................................................................ 18 Decision Making on Economic Issues ........................................................................ 19 GENERAL POLITICAL ATTITUDES.................................................................................... 21 Political Efficacy ......................................................................................................... 22 Political Isolation and the Russia-Belarus Union......................................................... 23 General Attitude toward the Government ................................................................... 26 Local Soviets.............................................................................................................. 27 FAITH IN SOCIAL INSTITUTIONS ...................................................................................... 29 Confidence................................................................................................................. 29 Corruption .................................................................................................................. 31 VOTING IN BELARUS ..................................................................................................... 34 General Attitude toward Voting................................................................................... 34 Who Voted in the 1996 Referendum? ........................................................................ 35 Future Voting for the 2001 Presidential Elections....................................................... 36 The Uncommitted Voters............................................................................................ 38 Important Issues for 2001 Presidential Elections........................................................ 38 PERCEPTIONS IN BELARUS OF THE APRIL 1999 ELECTIONS............................................. 40 Voting in the April 1999 Elections............................................................................... 40 Why People Did or Did Not Vote ................................................................................ 41 Most Important Issue.................................................................................................. 42 Rating the Election Process and Organization ........................................................... 42 Confidence in Members of Election Commissions is Divided...................................... 42 Overall Honesty of the April Elections ........................................................................ 43 Responsibility for the Fairness and Honesty of Elections ........................................... 44 Party Affiliation and Voting ......................................................................................... 45 Candidates Generally Reflect Views and Interests of Voters...................................... 46 Incumbent Deputies as Candidates............................................................................ 47 Information about the Voting Process......................................................................... 49 Main Source of Information ........................................................................................ 50 Influential Information Media ...................................................................................... 52 Other Issues in 1999 Elections................................................................................... 53 Military Personnel are Compelled to Vote................................................................... 53 The Impact of Military Voting...................................................................................... 54 i CIVIL SOCIETY IN BELARUS ........................................................................................... 56 What Does it Mean to Live in a Democratic Country?................................................. 57 Human Rights ............................................................................................................ 58 Attitudes toward the Political Opposition..................................................................... 61 Political Parties........................................................................................................... 62 Non-Governmental Organizations .............................................................................. 65 MASS MEDIA ................................................................................................................ 67 Media Familiarity........................................................................................................ 67 Main Media Sources .................................................................................................. 68 TV is the Main Source for Belarusians ....................................................................... 69 Radio ......................................................................................................................... 71 Newspapers Are Not Influential.................................................................................. 71 DIFFERENCES BETWEEN REGIONS.................................................................................. 73 ADDITIONAL NOTES ...................................................................................................... 76 APPENDIX I: TOPLINE DATA.......................................................................................... 79 APPENDIX II: MAP OF BELARUS ................................................................................. 115 ii Public Opinion in Belarus 1999 Larissa Titarenko 1 NTRODUCTION I This report analyzes the public opinion environment in Belarus in the spring of 1999, including the public’s general views on political and economic development, the performance of the government (national, regional, local), development of elements of civil society, and the perception of Belarus’ April 1999 local elections1. The Brief Summary provides an overview of the survey data. The Brief Interpretation section describes the data in terms of the transition processes in Belarus and possible implications for foreign assistance in promoting democracy in Belarus. The presentation of the main survey results is organized thematically and contains the following special sections: · Economic Environment · Political Attitudes · Social Institutions · Voting · Perception of April Elections · Civil Society · Media The Appendix includes the complete questionnaire and a table of the data. The 1999 survey is the first such survey conducted by the International Foundation for Election Systems in Belarus. From April 28 to May 7, 1999, 1,012 face-to-face interviews of adults (18 years and older) were conducted by a polling firm in Belarus. The technical aspects of this survey, including the sampling and preparation of the final data set, were supervised by Thomas Carson, Ph.D. The questionnaire was created in a joint effort by the IFES staff, including Michael Conway, IFES Senior Program Officer for Europe and NIS; Bob Richey, IFES Program Assistant for Europe and NIS; Thomas Carson, Ph.D.; Larissa Titarenko, Ph.D.; and the