The London School of Economics and Political Science Contentious Politics and the 25th January Egyptian Revolution Neil Ketchley A thesis submitted to the Department of Government of the London School of Economics for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy, London, September 2014 Declaration I certify that the thesis I have presented for examination for the MPhil/PhD degree of the London School of Economics and Political Science is solely my own work other than where I have clearly indicated that it is the work of others (in which case the extent of any work carried out jointly by me and any other person is clearly identified in it). The copyright of this thesis rests with the author. Quotation from it is permitted, provided that full acknowledgement is made. This thesis may not be reproduced without my prior written consent. I warrant that this authorisation does not, to the best of my belief, infringe the rights of any third party. I declare that my thesis consists of 44,982 words. 2 Abstract The three articles that make up this thesis consider the diverse forms of contentious politics and mass mobilization that emerged during the 25th January Egyptian Revolution in 2011 and its aftermath. The first article, discussing the eighteen days of anti-Mubarak protest, pays special attention to the position of the Egyptian army in and around Midan al-Tahrir, and recounts how protestors sought to co-opt and neutralize the threat posed by regime forces. It finds that fraternizing protestors developed a repertoire of contention that made situational, emotional claims on the loyalty of regime troops. The second article explores the role of elections and protests during the failed democratic transition away from authoritarian rule that began on 11 February with Mubarak’s resignation and ended on 3 July 2013 with a military coup. Highlighting the Muslim Brothers’ demobilization and privileging of procedural democracy following Mubarak’s ousting, it offers an alternative account of where and when Egypt’s democratic project went wrong. The final article considers opposition to the 3 July coup and in particular the effects of state repression on the daily street protests launched by the Muslim Brothers and their allies in the post-coup period. Far from being defeated, anti-coup contention, it is suggested, has instead been contained in ways that have made protest less visible and less disruptive over time. Taken as a whole, the thesis suggests new ways to understand and explain the 25th January Revolution, its trajectories and legacies. 3 Contents List of Figures ......................................................................................................................................... 6 List of Tables........................................................................................................................................... 7 Acknowledgements .............................................................................................................................. 8 A Note on Transliteration ............................................................................................................... 11 Introduction ......................................................................................................................................... 13 Research Questions .................................................................................................................. 15 The 25th January Revolution ............................................................................................... 18 Contentious Politics ................................................................................................................. 21 Methods and Data ..................................................................................................................... 27 The Structure of the Thesis ................................................................................................... 37 Chapter 1: “The army and the people are one hand!” Fraternization and the 25th January Egyptian Revolution ........................................................................................ 40 How to Protest Smartly .......................................................................................................... 46 Fraternizing the Egyptian Army.......................................................................................... 52 The Army and the People Are One Hand! ........................................................................ 57 One, Two, Where Is the Egyptian Army? ......................................................................... 69 What Is the Love Story with the Tanks? .......................................................................... 73 Conclusions ................................................................................................................................. 77 Chapter 2: “Elections are the solution!” Muslim Brothers, Mass Mobilization and Egypt’s Failed Democratic Transition ......................................................................... 85 The 25th January Revolution ............................................................................................... 91 4 Electoral Alliances and Machine Politics ......................................................................... 95 Mobilization and Demobilization .................................................................................... 104 Political Isolation ................................................................................................................... 115 Conclusions .............................................................................................................................. 119 Chapter 3: The How, Where and When of Repression and Mobilization: The Muslim Brothers and the Egyptian Anti-Coup Movement ........................................ 123 Returning to the Streets ...................................................................................................... 129 Repertoire of contention ..................................................................................................... 135 Sites of Contention ................................................................................................................ 142 Timing of Contention ............................................................................................................ 153 Conclusions .............................................................................................................................. 155 Conclusion ......................................................................................................................................... 158 Bibliography ..................................................................................................................................... 168 Appendix ............................................................................................................................................ 193 5 Figures Figure 1. al-Hurriyya wa-l-ʿAdala, 14 Sept. 2013: 1 .............................................................. 33 Figure 2. Anti-coup event catalogue entry #1459. ............................................................... 34 Figure 3. Online survey ................................................................................................................... 36 Figure 4. A woman kisses a member of the CSF, Cairo, 28 Jan. 2011 ............................ 48 Figure 5. “The police and the people together against oppression. Long live Egypt!”. ............................................................................................................................................. 51 Figure 6. An Egyptian army APC on fire in Midan al-Tahrir, 28 Jan. 2011 .................. 63 Figure 7. “The army and the people are one hand.” Poster outside Egyptian military checkpoint on Suez Road, Cairo. Feb. 2012. ..................................................... 79 Figure 8. “For Egypt: The army, the police and the people are one hand.” Poster on wall in downtown Cairo. May 2011. ................................................................. 81 Figure 9. “Map of Egyptian political parties: First phase of 2011 Parliamentary Elections”. ...................................................................................................... 101 Figure 10. Results of al-Majlis al-Shaʿb elections, Nov. 2011-Jan. 2012. ................... 103 Figure 11. Anti-coup protest participation and protest frequency ............................. 125 Figure 12. Anti-coup repertoire, 28 Jun.-30 Nov. 2013. .................................................. 136 Figure 13. Protest start and end locations, 28 Jun.-30 Nov. 2013. .............................. 143 Figure 14. Anti-coup ‘gathering march’ from three mosques to Midan al- Nahda, 9 Aug. 2013................................................................................................................... 146 Figure 15. Anti-coup march from al-Mahrusa mosque to Gamiʿat al-Duwal al- Arabiyya Street, 13 Sept. 2013............................................................................................. 148 Figure 16. Anti-coup march from al-Mahrusa mosque via residential streets to al-Radwan mosque, 8 Nov. 2013. .................................................................................. 150 6 Tables Table 1. Pre-3 July coup attacks on Muslim Brother and FJP offices. ......................... 131 7 Acknowledgements