2012 Integrated Resource Plan Meeting Roseville’s Future Electricity Needs 1 311 Verson Street | Roseville, California 95678 | www.roseville.ca.us Table of Contents 1 INTRODUCTION .....................................................................................................................................................4 2 BACKGROUND ........................................................................................................................................................5 2.1 Goals and Objectives ................................................................................................................................5 2.2 Methodology ...............................................................................................................................................6 2.3 Major Changes from 2006/2008 IRP ....................................................................................................7 3 Elements of IRP ......................................................................................................................................................9 3.1 Customer Loads and Demand ...............................................................................................................9 Demand and Energy .................................................................................................................................9 Demand Side Management ...................................................................................................................9 3.2 Generation Resources...............................................................................................................................9 General Characteristics ............................................................................................................................9 Natural Gas Plants ...................................................................................................................................12 Coal Power Plants ....................................................................................................................................12 Nuclear Plants ...........................................................................................................................................13 Hydroelectric ............................................................................................................................................14 Geothermal ...............................................................................................................................................14 Biomass .......................................................................................................................................................14 Wind Turbines ...........................................................................................................................................15 Solar .............................................................................................................................................................16 Distributed Generation .........................................................................................................................18 Contracts ....................................................................................................................................................18 Markets .......................................................................................................................................................19 3.3 Transmission and Distribution System ............................................................................................19 3.4 Regulatory .................................................................................................................................................19 Renewable Energy ..................................................................................................................................19 Renewable Portfolio Standard – SB 1078 .......................................................................................20 Energy Efficiency and Demand Reduction Requirements .......................................................22 Greenhouse Gas Emissions ..................................................................................................................23 Resource Adequacy ................................................................................................................................26 Other Potential Requirements and Restrictions ..........................................................................27 4 Roseville System .................................................................................................................................................28 4.1 Load Forecast ............................................................................................................................................28 Load Forecast Methodology ...............................................................................................................28 Forecast Assumptions ...........................................................................................................................29 Load Forecast Results ............................................................................................................................30 4.2 Demand Side Management ................................................................................................................31 4.3 Existing Supply Resources ...................................................................................................................33 Western Area Power Administration ................................................................................................34 NCPA Projects ...........................................................................................................................................34 City Owned Generation ........................................................................................................................35 Contracts ....................................................................................................................................................36 Markets .......................................................................................................................................................37 4.4 Roseville Electric Risk Management Program ...............................................................................37 Energy Risk Management ....................................................................................................................37 4.5 Transmission & Distribution System .................................................................................................39 California Balancing Authorities ........................................................................................................39 Transmission .............................................................................................................................................41 Distribution System ................................................................................................................................44 2 5 ROSEVILLE RESOURCE NEEDS .......................................................................................................................46 5.1 Renewable Portfolio Standard Needs ..............................................................................................46 6 RESOURCE ANALYSIS ........................................................................................................................................48 6.1 Resource Analysis ....................................................................................................................................48 6.2 Request for Offers for Renewable Energy ......................................................................................49 Resource Feasibility ................................................................................................................................50 Renewable Generation Impact ..........................................................................................................51 6.3 Portfolio Design and Comparison .....................................................................................................54 Assumptions .............................................................................................................................................54 Potential Portfolios .................................................................................................................................54 Portfolio Comparison .............................................................................................................................54 6.4 Detailed Portfolio Analysis ...................................................................................................................60 Portfolio Characteristics ........................................................................................................................61 Power Supply Costs ................................................................................................................................62 Rate Impact ...............................................................................................................................................62 Renewable