The Mobile Broadband Explosion Matts Sporre LTE Russia & CIS Forum 26-27 May Once upon a time… The Stockholm Telephone Tower - Opened 1887 Laying the Stockholm-Göteborg national cable 1923 Swedish police land-mobile-radio 1935 2 2009-05-28 Before you can walk… • Development 1949 - 1955 • Commercial life 1956 – 1969 • Fully automatic system. • 4 channels in 160 MHz band • Coverage - 30 km around Stockholm and Gothenburg • Phone equipment weight: 40kg • Maximum customer base: - 150 (1962) MTA – Mobile Telephony system A 3 2009-05-28 Before you can walk… • Development 1955 - 1965 • Commercial life 1965 – 1983 • Fully automatic system • 76-77.5 & 81-82.5 MHz bands • Coverage: - Stockholm, Gothenburg, Malmö • Equipment weight: 10 kg • Max customer base - 660 ( 1978) MTB – Mobile Telephony system B 4 2009-05-28 Before you can walk… • Development 1970 - 1971 • Commercial life 1971 - 1987 • A manual system • Coverage: Sweden, Norway and Denmark • Equipment weight - 4 kg • Maximum customer base: - 19 700 (1980) MTD – Mobile Telephony system D C 5 2009-05-28 Before you can walk… MTC = NMT = 1G C 6 2009-05-28 From 1G to 4G Hastighet 4G4G 2010 3G3G LTE 2003 2G UMTS 2G HSPA 1991 1G1G GSM GPRS 1981 EDGE NMT -80 -90 -00 -10 År 7 2009-05-28 Mobile Data Development Nordic Region Total traffic per country (all operators) Total Mobile Data 2 500 2 000 1 500 Sweden Finland Tbyte 1 000 Denmark 500 Mobile Data per user - 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 300,0 Year 250,0 200,0 Sweden 150,0 Finland Mbyte Denmark 100,0 50,0 0,0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Year Source: Swedish, Finnish and Danish regulators 9 2009-05-28 10 2009 1000% 1500% 2000% 2500% 3000% 3500% 4000% 500% Traffic 0% - 05 - 28 jan-07 feb-07 mar-07 apr-07 Nordic Networks TeliaSonera the in maj-07 jun-07 jul-07 aug-07 sep-07 okt-07 Jan2007 to relative Volume nov-07 dec-07 Month jan-08 feb-08 mar-08 apr-08 maj-08 jun-08 jul-08 aug-08 sep-08 okt-08 nov-08 dec-08 jan-09 feb-09 mar-09 2009 2008 2007 Relative number of PC modules in Telia’s network 1600% 1400% 1200% 1000% 800% 600% 400% 200% 0% 200606 200608 200610200612 200702 200704200706 200708 200710200712 200802 11 2009-05-28 Main drivers What makes subscribers need mobile broadband? Flat rate business model • Top 10 devices in TeliaSonera Sweden stores March 2007 May 2007 June 2007 March 2008 1 Sony Ericsson W880i 1 Nokia 1110i 1 Pc-kort 3G 1 USB-modem 3G 2 Nokia 1110i 2 Nokia N95 2 Usb-modem 3G 2 Sony Ericsson W890i 3 Nokia 5140i 3 Sony Ericsson K810i 3 Sony Ericsson K810i 3 Sony Ericsson W200i 4 Sony Ericsson K800i 4 Sony Ericsson W880i 4 Nokia 1110i 4 Nokia 3110 classic 5 Sony Ericsson W300i 5 Nokia 5140i 5 Sony Ericsson W880i 5 Sony Ericsson K810i 6 Sony Ericsson K750i 6 Nokia 6085 6 Nokia N95 6 Nokia 1208 7 Nokia N73 7 Sony Ericsson K750i 7 Nokia 5140i 7 Sony Ericsson W660i 8 Sony Ericsson Z710 8 Sony Ericsson Z710i 8 Samsung X510 8 Sony Ericsson W580i 9 Sony Ericsson W810i 9 Sony Ericsson K610i 9 Sony Ericsson W610i 9 Sony Ericsson P1i 10 Nokia 6131 10 Nokia 6300 introduced rate Flat 10 Sony Ericsson Z710i 10 Nokia 5310 1600% 1400% 1200% 1000% 800% 600% 400% • Increase of # PC modules 200% 0% 13 2009-05-28 200606 200608 200610200612 200702 200704200706 200708 200710 200712 200802 Post flat rate subscription examples • Bundling and price plans One time fee 28€ Windows XP Home Intel® AtomTM Processor N270 1,6Ghz 1 GB internminne 160 GB hard drive Monthly fee (9+23)€ 10.2” inch screen = WLAN 802.11/b/g Built in 3G Weight 1.19 kg 3yr subscription period • 5Gb/month for 25€/month (20€ if you also have fixed broadband) – Up to 7,2 Mbps in (almost) the whole network – Up to 14,4Mbps (covers ca half of Swedens population) – Up to 22Mbps in 2500 HomeRun WiFi surfspots. No limitation on data. • 3GB/month for 22€/month (17€ if you also have fixed broadband) • 2.5€/day with 3.5€/month subscription fee (max 40€/month) • 10€ for a week (Max 2Gb) 14 2009-05-28 Fixed user behaviour moves into moving laptops • Speed addiction 15 2009-05-28 Bring the fixed behaviour to the mobile • SurfOpen – Navigation and favourite buttons – Back and forward buttons – Favourites – Go to a URL address – Search engine – History – Home – Telia SurfPort – Main page – main page of the visited site – Login page – gives the login page of the visited site – Zoom – Miniature of the web page – RSS feed – Most used Surfport service (more than twice as big as the second) – Six times more users click on adds 16 2009-05-28 iPhone 17 2009-05-28 4G LTE Mobile data Mobile traffic per customer by device Revenue / Mb (Mb/month) (USD / Mb) 500 0.9 0.8 400 0.7 0.6 300 0.5 0.4 200 0.3 100 0.2 0.1 0 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Basic mobiles Smartphones USB modems • Fixed broadband subscription model: • Capacity need could be 100 times higher speed - higher charge greater within 5-10 years • Mobile broadband subscription model: • No adequate RoI to account for higher speed - same charge needed capacity in the longer term Source: Analysys Mason, Wireless network traffic 2008-2015: forecasts and analysis A-focus, Scenario analysys – future spectrum capacity demands. 2008 19 2009-05-28 Higher data speeds creates new possibilities More interactive services Virtual Organisations Mobile Office Mobile Applications Surf EASEEVERYDAY LIFE E-mail Voice SPEED AND CAPACITY 20 2009-05-28 First in the world in Norway and Sweden 21 2009-05-28 Roll-out of 4G already started • 80% of the site rental agreemenst are ready • First commercial 4G-base station in place for testing • Re-use of existing infrastructure • Launch in Sweden and Norway early 2010 – Covering Oslo and Stockholm 22 2009-05-28 4G Strategy and goals • Market and User perspective – Early: One of the first in the world – TeliaSonera shall offer the best user experience – TeliaSonera shall take the position as market leader in Mobile Broadband • Technology perspective – TeliaSonera has chosen the 3GPP technology track – The network shall offer High Capacity and Low cost per Mbyte – Phase 1: Overlay network with data only – Phase 2: Integrate with existing 2G/3G/WLAN, and Voice also in 4G 23 2009-05-28 .