East West Rail - Central Section Conditional Outputs Statement East West Rail Consortium Final Report 8 August 2014 East West Rail - Central Section Conditional Outputs Statement This page is intentionally blank Atkins EWR Central Section COS | Version 2.2 | 8 August 2014 | 5123752 East West Rail - Central Section Conditional Outputs Statement Notice This document and its contents have been prepared and are intended solely for East West Rail Consortium’s information and use in relation to the East West Rail Central Section. Atkins Limited assumes no responsibility to any other party in respect of or arising out of or in connection with this document and/or its contents. This document has 130 pages including the cover. Document history Job number: 5123752 Document ref: ITT 28744 Revision Purpose description Originated Checked Reviewed Authorised Date Rev 1.0 Final Report for Client PB PB AJC AJC 17/4/14 Review Rev 2.0 Final Report for Issue PB PB AJC AJC 14/5/14 Rev 2.1 Minor amendments PB PB AJC AJC 20/5/14 Rev 2.2 Revised GVA Calculations PB PB AJC AJC 8/8/14 Client signoff Client East West Rail Consortium Project East West Rail - Central Section Document title EWR Central Section COS Job no. 5123752 Copy no. Document ITT 28744 reference Atkins EWR Central Section COS | Version 2.2 | 8 August 2014 | 5123752 East West Rail - Central Section Conditional Outputs Statement This page is intentionally blank Atkins EWR Central Section COS | Version 2.2 | 8 August 2014 | 5123752 East West Rail - Central Section Conditional Outputs Statement Table of contents Chapter Pages Executive summary 9 1. Introduction 21 1.1. Background to Study 21 1.2. Strategic Objectives 21 1.3. The Study Area 21 1.4. Strategic Objectives 22 1.5. Our Approach 23 2. Economic Analysis Evidence Base 25 2.1. National Context 25 2.2. Sub-Regional Context 28 2.3. Basis for the Economic Analysis 37 3. Transport Networks Evidence Base 45 3.1. Highway Networks 45 3.2. Rail Network 47 4. Evidence Base Conclusions 51 5. The approach to identifying Passenger Service Conditional Outputs 53 5.1. Summary of Process 53 5.2. Factors that will influence EWR-CS service viability 53 5.3. Initial location identification and sifting 54 5.4. Deriving target EWR-CS service specifications 54 5.5. Journey Time Impacts of EWR-CS 57 5.6. Transport User Benefits 58 5.7. Estimating GVA Impacts 58 6. Prioritisation results 61 6.1. Journey Pair Benefits Analysis 61 6.2. Conclusions 65 7. Passenger Service Conditional Outputs 67 7.1. Interpreting the Passenger Service Conditional Outputs 72 8. Freight Service Conditional Outputs 73 9. Next Steps 75 Appendices 77 Appendix A. Economic Analysis Evidence Base 79 A.1. Supporting Analysis 79 Appendix B. Highway Networks Evidence Base 89 B.2. Highway Demand 91 B.3. Highways Agency Schemes 94 B.4. Local Authority/LEP Schemes 94 Appendix C. Rail Network Evidence Base 95 C.1. Reference case rail demand forecasts for 2031. 97 C.2. Rail Freight 99 Appendix D. Developing the Conditional Outputs 101 D.1. Sifting Criteria 101 D.2. EWR-CS Journey Times 102 D.3. Journey Pair Trip Classification 104 Atkins EWR Central Section COS | Version 2.2 | 8 August 2014 | 5123752 East West Rail - Central Section Conditional Outputs Statement D.4. Journey time competitiveness 105 D.5. Potential for Journey Enhancement 106 D.6. Identified priority journey pairs to “test” 107 D.7. Indicative EWR-CS rail in-vehicle times 108 D.8. Change in GJT’s: Do Something minus Do Minimum (where DM is reference case including EWR-WS) 109 D.9. Do Something Passenger Demand 2031 (NTEM/Tempro growth scenario) 110 D.10. Do Something minus Do Minimum Demand (NTEM/Tempro growth scenario) 111 D.11. Do Something Passenger Demand 2031 (Local Plan growth scenario) 112 D.12. Do Something minus Do Minimum Demand (Local Plan growth scenario) 113 D.13. Do Something Passenger miles (NTEM/Tempro growth) 114 D.14. DS - DM Passenger miles (NTEM/Tempro growth) 115 D.15. DS Passenger miles (Local Plan growth) 116 D.16. DS - DM Passenger miles (Local Plan growth) 117 Appendix E. Gravity Modelling 119 E.1. Introduction 119 E.2. Service Assumptions 119 E.3. Model Scope 119 E.4. GJTs 120 E.5. Elasticity Approach 121 E.6. Gravity Approach 122 Appendix F. Prioritisation Results 125 F.1. Journey Times < 15 Minutes 125 F.2. Journey Times 15 – 30 minutes 126 F.3. Journey Times 30 – 60 Minutes 127 F.4. Journey Times > 60 minutes 128 Tables Table 2-1 Development opportunities within close proximity to potential EWR Stations – Hertfordshire LEP .......................................................................................................................................... 29 Table 2-2 Development opportunities within close proximity to potential EWR Stations – New Anglia LEP .......................................................................................................................................... 30 Table 2-3 Development opportunities within close proximity to potential EWR Stations – Greater Cambridge & Peterborough LEP ............................................................................................. 31 Table 2-4 Development opportunities within close proximity to potential EWR Stations – Buckinghamshire & Thames Valley LEP ................................................................................. 32 Table 2-5 Development opportunities within close proximity to potential EWR Stations – Thames Valley Berkshire LEP .......................................................................................................................... 32 Table 2-6 Development opportunities within close proximity to potential EWR Stations – Oxfordshire LEP .......................................................................................................................................... 33 Table 2-7 Development opportunities within close proximity to potential EWR Stations – South East Midlands LEP ........................................................................................................................... 35 Table 2-8 Key Economic Metrics at LEP level ......................................................................................... 36 Table 2-9 Comparison of Local Plan and NTEM based Growth Forecasts in EWR-CS Study Area ...... 37 Table 2-10 Local Plan and NTEM/Tempro Population Forecasts to 2031 ................................................ 38 Table 2-11 Local Plan and NTEM/Tempro Employment Forecasts to 2031 ............................................. 38 Table 2-12 Population Ranking (within 5km catchments) .......................................................................... 40 Table 2-13 Employment Ranking (based upon 5km catchment areas) ..................................................... 42 Table 2-14 Summary of potential development opportunities within 500m of station locations ................ 43 Table 3-1 2014 Weekday Peak Highway Journey Times (minutes) – Source: Transport Direct ............ 45 Table 3-2 Current level of Main Line Utilisation (2014 AM Peak period 0700 – 0959) ............................ 48 Table 3-3 Network Rail schemes confirmed for CP5/CP6 ....................................................................... 48 Table 3-4 Local Authority & Developer schemes confirmed for CP5/CP6 .............................................. 49 Table 3-5 Current level of Main Line Utilisation (2026 AM Peak period 0700 – 0959) ............................ 49 Atkins EWR Central Section COS | Version 2.2 | 8 August 2014 | 5123752 East West Rail - Central Section Conditional Outputs Statement Table 5-1 Summary of Key B2B Impacts (assuming NTEM/Tempro Growth Forecasts) ....................... 59 Table 5-2 Summary of Key Labour Market Impacts (assuming NTEM/Tempro Growth Forecasts) ....... 60 Table 6-1 Priority Journey Pairs: < 15 minutes journey time (2031 NTEM/Tempro Growth) .................. 62 Table 6-2 Priority Journey Pairs: < 15 minutes journey time (2031 Local Plan Growth) ......................... 62 Table 6-3 Priority Journey Pairs: 15 - 30 min’s journey time (2031 NTEM/Tempro Growth) .................. 63 Table 6-4 Priority Journey Pairs: 15 - 30 min’s journey time (2031 Local Plan Growth) ......................... 63 Table 6-5 Priority Journey Pairs: 30 - 60 min’s journey time (2031 NTEM/Tempro Growth) .................. 64 Table 6-6 Priority Journey Pairs: 30 - 60 min’s journey time (2031 Local Plan Growth) ......................... 64 Table 6-7 Priority Journey Pairs: > 60 min’s journey time (2031 NTEM/Tempro Growth) ...................... 65 Table 7-1 Passenger Service Conditional Outputs for journeys of up to 15 minutes duration (NTEM/Tempro Growth to 2031) ............................................................................................. 67 Table 7-2 Passenger Service Conditional Outputs for journeys of up to 15 minutes duration (Local Plan Growth to 2031) ....................................................................................................................... 68 Table 7-3 Passenger Service Conditional Outputs for journeys of 15 to 30 minutes duration (NTEM/Tempro Growth to 2031) ............................................................................................. 68 Table 7-4 Passenger Service Conditional Outputs for journeys of 15 to 30 minutes duration (Local Plan Growth to 2031) ....................................................................................................................... 69 Table 7-5 Passenger Service Conditional Outputs for journeys of 30 to 60 minutes