Journal of Advanced Management Science Vol. 1, No. 3, September 2013 Identification and Forecasting of Emerging Technology Commercialization by Reverse Salient Kyunam Han Korea Intellectual Property Strategy Institute/Department of business consulting, Teheran-ro, Gangnam-gu, Seoul [email protected] Juneseuk Shin Sungkyunkwan University/Department of Systems Management Engineering, Republic of Korea [email protected] Abstract—The identification and forecasting of reverse sustaining [5]. This is a serial process, meaning that the salients of emerging technology is becoming harder because success in previous phase cannot guarantee the success in technology is getting complex. This study presents a the next phase. In initial phases, technological problems systematic method of identifying and forecasting reverse are important, and economics become important in later salients. Experts evaluation, bibliometric analysis and phases. Therefore, for successful technology forecasting techniques are integrated to specify reverse salients, to figure out the gap between current and market commercialization, the first step is to overcome key required performance, and to forecast when a reverse salient technological obstacles. Despite its importance, is resolved. This study will contribute to practitioners with technological issues have been overlooked. regard to R&D investment of private sectors and From the methodological point of view, most were governments, planning and technology commercialization. A dependent on expert’s assessment [6]. Yet, there is no carbon nanotube biosensor technology was analyzed as an organized method to identify key technological obstacles. example. Furthermore, shortened technology lifecycle and growing technological complexity have made experts’ judgments Index Terms—bibliometrics, carbon nanotube biosensor, less reliable. As an alternative, bibliometric analysis commercialization, reverse salient technique was proposed but it lacks specificity compared to expert judgment and cannot specify obstacles in R&D I. INTRODUCTION practice [7]. We suggest a new systematic approach to figure out key It is essential for growth of entrepreneur as well as technological obstacles, and to forecast when they can be national economy to commercialize emerging technologies resolved. To make the concept of technological obstacles successfully [1]. Emerging technologies create new growth clear, reverse salience methodology is introduced. Reverse opportunities by changing competition rules and reshaping salient (RS) is a technological element, which restricts industry structure based on disruptive innovation [2]. performance of the entire technology system and hinder the However, commercialization of some emerging system advancement [8]. We define RS as technological technologies such as carbon nanotube has been slowed obstacles which impede the full market potential of a down than expected. technology. Technology commercialization can be divided into two Our research process consists of three phases. In the first, stages [3]. The first is a period of dynamic technical change judgments by multiple experts are converged through innovation. The second is a period of systematically through combination of QFD and reverse technological integration and standardization. In the first, salient theory. In the second phase, key performance expectation on the future value of an emerging technology indicators of top priority RSs are defined through is formed despite various potential obstacles including bibliometric analysis of papers and patents. Lastly, we technological feasibility. However, many companies drive identify the current performance gap of RS and forecast a business based on emerging technologies, meet with a when the RS can be settled using extrapolation techniques. difficulty, and thus fail in businesses [4]. Jolly suggested Our method can overcome subjective biases of experts’ technology commercialization procedure comprising judgments and the lack of specificity found in the existing imaging, incubating, demonstrating, promoting and bibliometric analysis technique. Furthermore, we can predict the possibility of solving future RS thereby increasing accuracy of decision making on research and Manuscript received June 4, 2013; revised August 3, 2013. development at the current time. ©2013 Engineering and Technology Publishing 282 doi: 10.12720/joams.1.3.282-287 Journal of Advanced Management Science Vol. 1, No. 3, September 2013 As an example, carbon nanotube (CNT) biosensor is There was other attempt to systemize RS identification studied. CNT is a typical emerging nanotechnology. It is by dividing a commercialization process [12]. However, 100 times stronger than steel and has excellent thermal and RS identification still depends on intuitive judgments. electrical conductivity. Its application area is very wide Their approach may have difficulty in identifying RS of including transparent conductive films, solar cells, sophisticated technological system. Our research is semiconductors, sensors and others. However, its designed to overcome such subjectivity and to study commercialization has been done mainly in the area of dynamics of RS in a sophisticated technology system high-strength products. Commercialization in other areas systematically. has been delayed due to various RSs. Nonetheless, R&D B. Nanotechnology Commercialization for CNT commercialization is still actively progressing in academia as well as industries. Since CNT has similarity Since Dr. Richard Feynman presented the concept of with other status-of-the-art nanomaterials such as nanotechnology in 1959, nanotechnology has influenced grapheme in terms of applied commercialization area and many areas including products, service, system innovation material characteristics, it gives a wide range of as well as society, economics and environment greatly [13]. implications for various cases for other nanotechnology This is because nanotechnology is interdisciplinary, commercialization. disruptive and widely applicable [14]. Most of nanotechnology advancements have come from II. LITERATURE REVIEW interdisciplinary R&D and technology fusion. Those are promoting innovations in many industries. This study focuses on technology commercialization Regardless of huge R&D investments in public and from a wide perspective view and more particularly, it private sectors over many years, nanotechnology deals with technical RSs. Thus, the previous studies on RS commercialization hasn’t met the initial expectations. and technology commercialization are reviewed. Because of this, many previous studies have discussed the A. Reverse Salient key factors of nanotechnology commercialization. US Department of Commerce in 2007 identified the core In contrast with a unitary view, which understands the causes of the stagnant commercialization including a long technology system integrally, a systemic view sees the period of research, large performance gap between the technology system as multiple interactive subsystems. The basic and applied science and lack of prototyping facilities RS concept is based on the systemic view. Technological [6]. Many other researchers added socio-economic factors elements, which restrict performance of the entire to this list such as a large scale capital investment, highly technology system and hinder the system advancement, are specialized R&D personnel, research infrastructure, and called reverse salient (RS). Therefore, RS must be solved network between universities and entrepreneurs [15], [16]. in order for the technology system to work as expected and There were also many studies on processes and paths for get back to the normal advancement path [9]. nanotechnology commercialization because Previous studies have used RS to investigate evolution nanotechnology can be commercialized into various of technology systems, and the role of RS. At first, Hughes industries and products. Many researchers have studied to used the concept of RS to analyze the development of a the co-evolution trajectories of nanotechnology, which direct-current electric system generator. Similarly, requires multi-disciplinary convergence, research trends Murmann and Frenken decomposed a technology system for nanotechnology through a quantitative bibliometric of vehicle into technological sub-elements such as a body analysis, and socio-technical scenario for the future of and engine in their study on dominant design and nanotechnology. innovation [10]. On the other hand, studies from a Most studies were based on macroscopic point of views socio-technical viewpoint understood RS by including not with regard to entire nanotechnology although some only technological elements but also other external research studied the advancement path of specific elements such as end consumers, manufacturers and nanoproducts. Huang analyzed possibility of related infrastructures [11]. commercialization for biosensors and application areas RS concept can also be useful to understand not only RS with regard to nanomaterials applied [17]. For practical of a current system but also dynamic changes in a implications, a microscopic approach is more appropriate technological system. For instance, Dedehayir and over macroscopic trend analysis on commercialization Mäkinen analyzed a changes of RS in PC game; hardware, process. the CPU and the GPU as a subsystem of a personal Many previous studies analyzed the core factors of computer. RS of PC game in the past was the CPU but soon success and failure of commercialization,