Population Growth, Reproductive Health and Sustainable Development POLICY BRIEF I DECEMBER, 2011 1 I POPULATION, REPRODUCTIVE HEALTH & SUSTAINABILITY ustainable development “meets the needs of the present without compromis- ing the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.” 1 In the 20th century, a tripling of human numbers was accompanied by dra- S matic gains in development, as measured in food production and economic growth. But much of that development was unsustainable—it focused on the needs of the present at the expense of future generations. Today, the world’s nations must provide for an ever-growing population against a backdrop of food and water shortages, depleted resources, and a changing climate. Slower population growth would make that challenge easier to meet. Moreover, the means to slow growth—including family planning and other reproductive health services—can promote development that meets human needs today—and tomorrow. Water Water is increasingly scarce for many. In 1995, 386 million people lived in 2 Fresh water is essential for agricul- areas of water stress or water scarcity. ture, industry, and for human health Today, that number has grown to 1.2 and life itself. Yet the planet’s finite billion, almost a fifth of the world’s supply of freshwater is distributed in- population. By 2025, largely because equitably—both by nature and by hu- of population growth, 1.8 billion peo- man beings. While there is no global ple will live in countries where water is shortage, a growing number of regions scarce, and fully two-thirds of humani- are chronically parched. Many of ty will live under conditions of water 3 those regions—including parts of stress. Many water-stressed countries Africa, the Middle East and Asia— depend on shared water resources, in- are also where population is growing creasing the risk of conflict over these most rapidly. Slower population scarce resources. growth could help reduce pressure on this vital resource. Population is growing rapidly in poor, water-stressed countries. The World Bank has identified 45 countries where water shortages are most acute: coun- tries that are both water stressed and economically poor, with per capita in- come of less than $3 per day.4 The av- erage total fertility rate in those coun- tries is 4.8, compared to the global av- erage of 2.6, and their population is expected to nearly double by 2050.5 Addressing the problem: efficiency, equity and slower growth. Water can be used much more efficiently: In de- veloping countries, for example, 60 to 75 percent of irrigation water is cur- POLICY BRIEF I 2 6 rently lost to evaporation or runoff. Population is growing most rapidly in poor countries And better policies can promote more where water shortages are severe and hunger is equitable distribution of limited water prevalent. supplies. Nonetheless, the difficulty of matching human needs to the Earth’s supply of renewable fresh water can only increase as population grows. There is enough food for everyone. Slower growth can provide breathing Today, the world’s farmers produce room to develop creative solutions to more than enough food for everyone water scarcity. on the planet. Supplies would stretch even further if the affluent ate ―lower Food on the food chain.‖ Indeed, if all of the world’s people ate the predominantly Ever since Thomas Malthus observed vegetarian diet of the average Indian, that human numbers tend to grow more world harvests would support a popu- rapidly than food supplies, debate has lation of 10 billion. But if everyone on raged over whether an ever-expanding Earth ate a typically American, meat- population will be able to feed itself. and dairy-intensive diet, the annual The last century seemed to put the harvest would support only 2.5 billion 8 question to rest, as unprecedented pop- people. ulation growth was accompanied by even greater increases in food produc- Demand is skyrocketing. Human num- tion. Still, hunger persists. Today, bers are still growing rapidly: today’s there is enough food for all of the population of 7 billion is expected to world’s people, yet almost one in seven grow to 9 billion or more by 2050; go hungry. And the future remains un- more than 80 million people are added certain: with a world population ap- to the world’s population each year. At proaching nine billion by midcentury, the same time, rising affluence means water shortages, land degradation, and that more people are eating grain-fed the wild card of climate change, it re- meat and dairy products. The world’s mains an open question whether agri- automobiles are also adding to de- culture can keep pace with demand. mand, as crops are increasingly divert- ed from the food supply to make biofu- Food production has increased. Despite els such as ethanol. The Food and Ag- persistent hunger, humanity made dramatic riculture Organization (FAO) projects progress toward food security in the last half- that by 2050, population and economic century. Production of the ―big three‖ grains growth will result in a doubling of de- 9 – wheat, rice and corn — has more than mand for food crops globally. tripled since 1950, increasing from 630 mil- lion to 2 billion tons. 7 Those gains were Future gains in productivity are far from achieved, in part, by increasing the number assured. Increases in productivity are limited of acres under cultivation. At the same time, by land degradation, shortages of irrigation the ―Green Revolution‖ boosted the produc- water, diminishing returns from fertilizers, tivity of each acre with irrigation, high-yield climate change, rising fuel costs, and a dwin- crops, new farming practices and synthetic dling backlog of yield-raising technologies. fertilizer. As a result, the rate of increase in the yields 3 I POPULATION, REPRODUCTIVE HEALTH & SUSTAINABILITY Food prices are rising. The cost of food declined from the early 1960s until 2002, when it began to trend upward.16 Rising prices sig- nal imbalances in supply and de- mand, driven by increased demand from population growth and afflu- ence, and reduced supply. 17 The FAO predicts that high and vola- tile food prices are likely to con- tinue. 18 Fisheries, another important source of food, are threatened by overuse. Fisheries are a critical source of protein for two billion of the world’s people, but more than three-quarters of fish stocks are fully or over exploited.19 In of the big three crops fell below the growth the Philippines, for example, increased in world population after 1984.10 demand has depleted fisheries that pre- viously provided up to 80 percent of Land degradation is severe. One fifth dietary protein for inhabitants in rural 20 of the world’s cropland has been de- coastal areas. The Green Revolution graded by human activity—such as has also taken a toll on fisheries: use of poor farming practices and overgraz- synthetic fertilizer helped boost yields, ing—and is now unsuitable for farm- but nitrogen from fertilizer leaches into ing.11 In Africa, intensified traditional bodies of water where it creates ―dead farming practices have caused dramatic zones‖ that cannot support fish and declines in soil fertility.12 other aquatic life. The number of dead 21 zones is doubling every decade. Hunger is growing. The number of hungry people in the world–which was Population is growing most rapidly greatly reduced from 1950 to 1984 and where hunger is rampant. Many coun- continued to decline until the late tries with high rates of food insecurity 1990s–has since turned upward.13 To- also have high fertility rates and rapid day, more than a billion people—one population growth. Sub-Saharan in seven—go to bed hungry each Africa, for example, has the highest night.14 Hunger kills more people than growth rate in the world; its population AIDS, malaria and tuberculosis com- is expected to triple by the end of this 22 bined.15 In some cases—including the century. Today, one in four citizens drought-ravaged Horn of Africa— of sub-Saharan Africa is undernour- 23 hunger results when there is not ished. Sub-Saharan Africa also has enough food available. More typically, the lowest agricultural productivity in hunger is a function of poverty: the the world and the highest percentage of 24 poor cannot afford to buy enough food. people living in poverty. POLICY BRIEF I 4 Elements of a solution. The causes of But ecosystems are in trouble. Less food insecurity are complex, necessi- than a fifth of the planet’s original for- tating both supply- and demand-side est cover remains intact.29 One-third of solutions. On the supply side, both coral reefs and mangroves have been short-term food aid and long-term in- lost or damaged.30 Fully two-thirds of vestments in agricultural productivity the planet’s ecosystems—including are needed. On the demand side, re- freshwater and fisheries—are being duced use of food crops for biofuels used in ways that simply cannot be would help, as would slower popula- sustained.31 And there is new evidence tion growth. that many damaged ecosystems could soon reach the ―tipping point‖ beyond Ecosystem Health which they can’t be repaired.32 Functioning ecosystems are the foun- Preserving ecosystems: a new ap- dation of human well-being, and they proach. Current development models are fundamental to lasting develop- often entail liquidating natural assets ment. But too often, development has for short-term gain, which may enrich come at the expense of ecosystems that elites and temporarily boost GDP but 33 provide vital services to humanity. De- drive others deeper into poverty. Sus- struction of ecosystems undermines taining ecosystems for current and fu- gains in poverty alleviation, food and ture generations requires a new ap- water security, and human health.